October 12 Heyue's recommendation $ETH Direction: Duo Initial position: 2520-2530 Take profit: 2560-2580-2600 Basis for entry: Technically, ETH has formed an Adam and Eve bottom, with the 2520 neckline firmly reclaimed and the moving averages in a bullish alignment; a pullback is a buying opportunity. On-chain, whales sold 410 $BTC in exchange for 14,341 ETH, while bullish positions have continued accumulating a total of 105k ETH, with live trading support at 2540. In terms of capital flows, the ETH spot ETF has recorded net inflows for five consecutive days, and BlackRock bought $1.01 billion on the 20th, indicating systematic institutional accumulation. The triple confluence makes the bullish thesis solid. #GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #BTC涨1.17% $BTC $SOL

I went to Hong Kong over the weekend to attend Lighter’s private dinner, and after being a year late, I finally met Vlad @vnovakovski and several team members I had previously known online. Attendees included several funds, some big traders, and market makers. The funds were interested in purchasing ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2. During the dinner, I asked some extremely pointed questions and obtained a lot of first-hand information, which I estimate is also what community members most want to hear, so I’m passing it on to everyone. 1. When will the US compliance licenses be granted? Soon, but there is no definite timeline. First, everyone should understand that the CFTC license is not determined by the Lighter team, but by when the government agency can approve it. Lighter’s goal is to obtain CFTC licenses for both Perps and Options after launching options in Q4. Lighter has worked and clarified matters with the CFTC for 11 months. The CFTC has “fully” recognized and understood Lighter’s ZK+Ethereum technical architecture, liquidation mechanism, ADL strategy, and 0 fee business model, among other things. It can be said that Lighter is by far the most likely project to obtain the first US-compliant DeFi/DEX license. 2. After obtaining the licenses, will Lighter use Core/Robinhood or develop a separate instance? After obtaining the licenses, Lighter will immediately launch Lighter US, which will be a separate instance. Its KYC/AML procedures will align with those of traditional trading companies, while Lighter US will bring in major Wall Street market makers such as Citadel and Jump to make markets for Lighter. (Vlad was previously directly recruited by Citadel CEO and worked there for many years.) Asset categories will be launched one by one in accordance with CFTC regulations, while maintaining the 0 fee trading structure. 3. When will Options and LighterEVM launch? Both are targeted for Q4, with an emphasis on Options. Due to technical reasons, options will initially launch as binary options, namely prediction markets, and will subsequently be upgraded to traditional European options. Options are also expected to begin with 0 fee trading. LighterEVM is also expected in Q4. After its launch, it will introduce spot trading for non-EVM assets such as BTC, HYPE, and SOL. Of course, “stock spot” will also be included, while LighterEVM will also give rise to a large number of ecosystem projects, such as wick, which I will discuss later. 4. Regarding the large unlock on December 30 at the end of the year, how will the team handle the massive investor and team unlocks? (I asked this very directly.) “Investors won’t sell!” Vlad said this was the information he knew. I pressed further, saying that you can’t control their hands and stop them from selling, right? Vlad’s meaning was: if they say they won’t sell, they won’t sell. If they want to sell, they can simply say so, and we can even help them find OTC buyers or buy the tokens ourselves. The probability of them dumping directly on the secondary market is not high because the cost-effectiveness is low, while it would also damage the VCs’ own reputations. Indeed, several funds at the table were there specifically to discuss OTC transactions. 5. Lighter and Robinhood have the same business model, seeking to acquire as much retail user traffic as possible, so why has the team remained so conservative regarding Marketing? The team’s Camila told me that Lighter is not actually doing no MKT; rather, it has been continuously considering the ROI. At this stage, Lighter’s licenses have not yet been granted, and large-scale, high-quality traffic will only emerge after the licenses are obtained. Therefore, the team’s current Marketing spending is limited, focusing mainly on a few KOLs in Europe and the US, as well as major video interviews. (I’m trying to arrange one.) Camila also mentioned that she believes the customary Web3 Agency and KOL marketing is extremely poor value for money. Therefore, after the licenses are granted, they will market in a Web2 manner similar to Kalshi/Polymarket/Robinhood. On the KOL side, the focus will mainly be on KOLs covering futures trading and PerpDEXs, with simultaneous efforts across Europe and the US, South Korea, Greater China, and other regions. Marketing is an area the team will focus on after the licenses are granted, because they also understand what their business model requires. 6. Vlad, have you personally invested in Cognition? (Cognition is the enterprise AI project of Scott Wu, a partner in Vlad’s previous project, and is currently valued at $50 billion.) Vlad said that he was Cognition’s first investor. I said that meant he must be very wealthy, and congratulated him. After the dinner, I privately discussed with team member Sebas whether he thought Vlad regretted choosing crypto instead of AI at the time, given that the total market capitalization of the LIT token is currently less than $4 billion, while Cognition is already worth tens of billions before even going public. Sebas said absolutely not. Vlad likes both AI and trading. This can be seen from the many years he previously worked at Citadel Securities and from the fact that he was Robinhood’s first advisor. Vlad enjoys building trading systems, while on the AI side, Vlad has personally invested in many projects, something he is also very proud of. Now that his good friend’s company is doing so well, Vlad is even more motivated to make his own company better. 7. The team has consistently advocated using 100% of revenues to buy back and burn tokens. This is obviously good for token holders, but it would leave the company without cash flow. How will the team handle its cash flow? Vlad openly acknowledged this issue. Indeed, his starting point has always been that “all of Lighter’s revenue rights belong to LIT token holders.” However, the company’s long-term operations must also be considered. At present, the money the team spends comes from the VC funding provided previously. In the long term, Lighter may consider generating revenue from certain partners and channels. Lighter has already reached agreements with new types of partners, which will be announced later. On the product side, it is considering advanced options users in the future, while the buyback-and-burn ratio may potentially become 99% or 98%. (All of this is still hypothetical and has not yet been decided.) That’s all. This is my account of attending Lighter’s private dinner. Since my English is not fully native, some of the content may not be perfectly precise, but the general meaning is consistent. At the dinner, I felt that the team was in very good spirits and extremely confident in what they are doing. Vlad also often joked around, drinking Moutai baijiu, and did not have the very nerdy, rigidly serious demeanor he always displays on screen. Over the next two days, I will focus on writing another article about the similar business models of Lighter and Robinhood. Stay tuned.

The Monday early-session outlook is out. Pay attention to risk control and position sizing. Current market outlook update: BTC, ETH, SOL, SNDK, MU, SKHYNIX The gold instrument shared is CFD gold—make sure you do not trade the wrong one, as the resulting slippage and spread could easily trigger stop-losses. For intraday trading, it is not recommended to place pending orders everywhere. Select suitable levels for your trades and manage risk properly!