$BTC Time is ticking... The bottoming zone is nearing its end, with roughly one month remaining. Most are still focused on lower targets and failing to see the bigger picture. I remain swing long from 59.4K.

Set up the script in advance! In the early hours, I shared a high-level BTC shorting idea, and the market touched the 65025 resistance zone as expected, then turned lower. Precisely identifying the resistance level and positioning accordingly, the price action completely matched the earlier projection. A good strategy should be left to the market for validation. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 $BTC $ETH

If BTC falls back to $500M in the second half of the year, could CORE possibly drop to 0.01U? Under the scenario of BTC falling to $50k, CORE dropping to 0.01U is a 【low-probability extreme scenario, but theoretically possible; under a normal decline, it would be difficult to reach 0.01, with the most likely extreme support zone at 0.014–0.017】. I. Basic Data Anchors 1. CORE's historical low: 0.015U (reached in July 2026), with no effective break below it to date; ​ 2. Total supply: 2.1 billion tokens, with approximately 1.25B currently circulating; ​ - At 0.015U: circulating market cap ≈ $20.93 million ​ - At 0.01U: circulating market cap ≈ $12.46 million, fully diluted market cap $21 million ​ 3. Current price range: approximately 0.020–0.022U. II. Scenario Analysis: CORE's Trend If BTC Falls to 50,000 USDT Scenario 1: Mild correction (highest probability) BTC moves downward from its current range, gradually falling to 50,000, representing a deep correction in the middle of a bull market without systemic panic selling - Historical pattern: second-tier public-chain altcoins generally fall more than BTC; when BTC retraces by around 25%, mid-cap altcoins typically retrace 45%–60% ​ - Estimate: 0.021 → extreme downside of 0.014–0.016U 👉Conclusion: It would be difficult to break through the previous low of 0.015, and 0.01U would be out of reach. Scenario 2: Systemic panic selling (low probability, a necessary condition for reaching 0.01) Multiple negative factors would need to resonate simultaneously; without all of them, it would be difficult to see 0.01: 1. BTC rapidly plunges to 50,000, triggering cascading liquidations of leveraged positions in a short period, while liquidity across the altcoin market dries up; ​ 2. The BTCFi sector undergoes a broad valuation massacre, with Stacks and Merlin also plunging, leading to a collective withdrawal of funds from the BTC ecosystem; ​ 3. CORE experiences negative catalysts: large-scale team/foundation token unlocks, continued declines in on-chain TVL, or the buyback plan falling short of expectations; ​ 4. Exchange market depth thins, buy orders become sparse, and a small amount of selling can trigger an extreme wick. Only when all these factors resonate would it be possible for CORE to briefly wick down to 0.01U, and it would be difficult to remain below 0.01 for long; once panic subsides, it would rebound quickly. Scenario 3: The start of a deep bear market (extremely low probability) 50,000 is not a temporary low, BTC continues falling, and the market enters a prolonged crypto winter. At this point, all narrative-driven altcoins continue declining, 0.01 would be decisively broken, and even lower prices could be tested. III. Several Support Factors Limiting CORE's Decline to $0.01 1. The previous historical low of 0.015 has formed a psychological cost-basis floor A large amount of dip-buying capital entered near 0.017 during this decline, creating passive buying support at this level; ​ 2. The project's narrative floor: the official team continues promoting the buyback plan, and the foundation may be expected to provide support in an extreme low-price range (though execution is not guaranteed); ​ 3. The sector's value floor: BTCFi remains a core narrative for the next bull market; complete collapse and a market cap below $12 million would constitute excessively bearish pricing; IV. Key Downside Risks (Supporting a Break Below Support and a Move Toward 0.01) 1. Token distribution structure: whale holdings are concentrated, and large holders may sell without regard to price during panic periods; ​ 2. Continued linear token unlocks, creating long-term inflationary selling pressure; ​ 3. Intensifying competition within the sector, with Babylon and BTC Layer 2 Rollups continuing to divert capital, while the CORE ecosystem lacks a breakout application; ​ 4. No stable cash flow, relying purely on market sentiment, with no fundamental support during a bear market. V. Objective Reference Points for Practical Operations 1. Normal market expectation: if BTC falls to $50,000, CORE's extreme support range is 0.015–0.017; ​ 2. Extreme panic wick expectation: there is a very small chance of an instantaneous test of 0.01, but this would be an extreme low that is encountered only by chance and should not be treated as a target that will definitely be reached; do not place orders in advance and rigidly wait at 0.01, as there is a high probability it will never be reached; ​ 3. Key dividing line to watch: the historical low of 0.015 ​ - If 0.015 is decisively broken and the price fails to recover, it indicates that bearish forces are far stronger than expected, and the probability of a move toward 0.01 rises sharply; ​ - If 0.015 holds, it will be difficult for this correction to reach 0.01.