Who is the true master of the Fed? Data, Trump, or Powell?
1. Core contradiction: Political demands vs. Policy independence Trump's core motivation is to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, creating a loose monetary environment to serve his political campaign needs. However, he faces a key obstacle: the Fed is highly independent, and its decisions strictly follow economic data (especially inflation and employment) rather than political pressure. The market generally believes that Trump will find it difficult to truly influence the direction of monetary policy before Powell's term ends. 2

The countdown to the Fed's interest rate cut is on! Bitcoin is about to trigger a massive 30% shock, the final showdown between bulls and bears in the last quarter!
Current Crypto Market: Moving steadily through complex narratives Each cycle in the crypto market has a new story. Nowadays, market signals are no longer simple; they result from a combination of various narratives interwoven, such as Fed policies, U.S. Treasury interest rates, macroeconomics, and geopolitical factors, leading to continuous fluctuations. Market Outlook: Short-term volatility and medium to long-term opportunities Sh

A bloodbath triggered by the "ancient Whale" and the "collective silence" of market makers!
From a market structure perspective, the recent decline in Bitcoin can be seen as a strong deleveraging process before the initiation of a new upward trend. Coinglass liquidity data shows that liquidity below $111,000 has been absorbed, with major resistance above around $120,000. The direct trigger for the market movement was the sleeping Whale who publicly converted their Bitcoin holdings to Ethereum and sold off a large amount. When they sold approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, the market makers collectiv

The market is betting heavily on a rate cut in September (84%)! Keep a close eye on the PCE data next week, and lie in ambush for this opportunity amid the huge fluctuations!
The market is betting on a rate cut in September ( at 4% )! Next week, closely watch the PCE data, lying in ambush for this opportunity amidst the huge fluctuations!
Original
Trading Notes Seven
Encrypted Trading Notes
August 25, 2025 11:37
Hong Kong, China
2 people
This weekend's market pullback is mainly due to investors reassessing Powell's speech—while interest rate cuts are beneficial for liquidity, they may also sig

Powell throws down the "recession" warning! Market misreads the interest rate cut frenzy? Will Monday's US stock market trigger a new round of BTC dumping?
Powell throws down the "recession" warning! Is the market misreading the interest rate cut frenzy? Will Monday's US stocks trigger a new round of BTC dumping?
Original
Trading Notes Seven
Crypto Trading Notes
August 23, 2025 10:53
Hong Kong, China
1 person
1. Core signals from Powell's speech: Rising interest rate cut probability coexists with economic risk concerns. 1. September interest rate cut probability rises to 87%: Powell's speech r

#Directly addressing Powell's speech, "hawk" or "dove"? A survival guide for suckers: How to interpret Powell's speech tonight!
"Hawk" or "Dove"? A Lifesaving Guide for Suckers: How to Interpret Powell's Speech Tonight!
Framework for Analyzing Bitcoin Trends and Macro Events
1. Core driving logic: Interest rate cut expectation game, current status: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September are cooling.
Reason: Inflation stickiness: Data indicates that inflation is still not fully under control.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Signal: Officials indicate a pref