Who is the true master of the Fed? Data, Trump, or Powell?

1. Core contradiction: Political demands vs. Policy independence Trump's core motivation is to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, creating a loose monetary environment to serve his political campaign needs. However, he faces a key obstacle: the Fed is highly independent, and its decisions strictly follow economic data (especially inflation and employment) rather than political pressure. The market generally believes that Trump will find it difficult to truly influence the direction of monetary policy before Powell's term ends. 2. Fed's logic: Data drives everything The Fed is currently in a "wait and see" mode. Its decision-making follows a clear chain: inflation/employment data → Decision confidence → Interest rate policy Whether to cut rates in September does not depend on political rhetoric but rather on whether core PCE and other data continue to decline. The currently robust labor market gives the Fed the capital to remain patient, as premature rate cuts could undermine anti-inflation achievements.
3. Market Calmness: Expectations are managed, focusing on soft landing as the market shows no panic, stemming from two points: Effective expectation management: The Fed has repeatedly communicated that it is "not in a hurry to cut interest rates," and the market is digesting and accepting this outlook. Economic resilience signals: The rise in US stocks (especially tech stocks) reflects an optimistic judgment on corporate profits and the possibility of a "soft landing"; the stabilization of BTC indicates that there is no systemic liquidity crisis. Conclusion: Data is the only arbiter. Trump's remarks are unlikely to change the game, and the market's true focus has shifted to the economic data itself. Friday's core PCE data will be the next key verification point; if it meets expectations, it will reinforce the narrative of "controlled inflation," paving the way for future rate cuts; if it rebounds beyond expectations, it will completely dispel the possibility of rate cuts in the near term.
BTC
The current overall rebound has broken below the red trend line, and the daily report from yesterday showed support at 111500-110800, with a short-term rebound in progress! Therefore, during the day, the rebound at 112200-112580 has short-selling demand, with a target near 110400. The best position for going long is still to wait for the area of 108500-107200!

ETH
Yesterday's daily report showed support and rebound at the 4430-4400 position! Pay attention to the upper range of 4550-4590; otherwise, it will continue to move downwards, targeting a test of 4000. If it breaks this level, we will continue to see levels down to 4276-4206! At the same time, this is a point to consider for accumulation and buying!

SOL
The live broadcast repeatedly reminds to be cautious when shorting SOL! Last night’s broadcast provided the position of 210.5, and also at 208! A precise entry! Currently, on H1, we are looking for entry opportunities around 210-207, and 205-202! Pay attention to whether 220 and 238 will form false breakouts!