#Directly addressing Powell's speech, "hawk" or "dove"? A survival guide for suckers: How to interpret Powell's speech tonight!

"Hawk" or "Dove"? A Lifesaving Guide for Suckers: How to Interpret Powell's Speech Tonight!
Framework for Analyzing Bitcoin Trends and Macro Events
1. Core driving logic: Interest rate cut expectation game, current status: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September are cooling.
Reason: Inflation stickiness: Data indicates that inflation is still not fully under control.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Signal: Officials indicate a preference for "more time is needed" and do not support a rapid rate cut.
Impact: Delayed interest rate cut expectations → Market liquidity will not immediately become loose → Short-term pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
2. Key event node: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting figures: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (Jerome Powell)
Market focus: it is not about seeking a clear "yes or no", but rather capturing its tonal inclination.
Possible scenario analysis:
Doves (bullish): Emphasize the risks of economic downturn and show an open attitude towards future interest rate cuts → Boost in market sentiment.
Hawkish (bearish): Emphasizes that anti-inflation has not been completed, and there is no need to rush to cut interest rates → Market expectations further adjusted, prices under pressure.
Neutral (Wait and See): Reiterate "data-dependent", no clear direction provided → Market volatility decreases, waiting for subsequent data.
3. Current market status:
Observation and Digestion Price and Trading Volume: Price Decline + Trading Volume Shrinkage → Indicates a decrease in panic selling, the market enters a wait-and-see mode, gradually digesting the possibility of "no interest rate cuts."
Investor sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution, preparing for various outcomes.
4. External Variables:
Political factors (Trump) behavior: applying pressure through speech and personnel (such as demanding the resignation of Federal Reserve officials) in an attempt to influence the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible.
*Effect Assessment: In the short term, it creates noise and increases market uncertainty, but it is difficult to change the independent decision-making process of the Federal Reserve. Its policies (such as tariffs) may even exacerbate inflation, which in the long run may constrain interest rate cuts.
5. Risk Assessment and Preparation
*Main Risks: During Powell's speech tonight (Friday), the market may experience extreme volatility ("spike"行情).
*Preparedness: For traders: manage positions, control leverage, and avoid being liquidated during extreme volatility.
*For investors: Understand that short-term fluctuations are driven by macro sentiment and are unrelated to long-term narratives.
6. Future Observation Path > Interest Rate Cut Expectation Game → Key Events/Data Release → Market Interpretation and Reaction → Formation of a New Round of Expectations *Next Observation Points: 1. Powell's Speech (Tonight) 2. Subsequent Key Data: August Non-Farm Payroll Report (NFP), Consumer Price Index (CPI). 3. Trump's Next Move.
---The current market is in a "waiting for Godot (Powell)" state. Short-term trends are dominated by macro sentiment, and tonight's speech will set the next short-term tone. Risk management is the top priority, while the long-term trend requires stepping out of short-term speculation.
What will happen next?
1. Watch what Powell "sings" tonight: Dovish song (bullish): suggests an open attitude towards interest rate cuts → Bitcoin may rebound.
*Hawkish song (bearish): Emphasizes inflation, suggests no rush to cut interest rates → Bitcoin may drop again.
*Tai Chi (Neutral): Say "Let's wait for the data" → Market short-term fluctuations, waiting for subsequent data.
2. What preparations do you need to make?
Necessary preparations: The market will fluctuate greatly tonight, and there is a high probability of a "spike" (a rapid surge or drop in a short period).
If you trade contracts, you must control your position well and avoid being liquidated! *In the long run: Short-term speculation does not affect the long-term story of Bitcoin. If it drops, it is instead an opportunity to accumulate in batches.
In summary: The market was too optimistic before, and now it's been doused with cold water. Everyone is waiting for Powell's statement tonight; his words will determine the short-term trend. Buckle up and get ready for a roller coaster!
**Short-term pressure for BTC is 113900-114800. A valid breakthrough at 114800 will lead to further rebounds! Pay attention to the critical support test at the blue line 111850 below. The area between 1114000-110500 can be considered as a pin insertion zone, watch for rebound opportunities on the first touch!

ETH's daily report yesterday gave a range of 4230-4153, currently rebounding with profits, setting a stop-loss at breakeven, and still aiming for 4450! Also, pay attention to the rejection distribution opportunities at 4450-4576!

SOL
The long positions around 182 from yesterday are starting to be profitable, and the target is still looking at the 189-195 area! Also, pay attention to the distribution opportunities here!