A bloodbath triggered by the "ancient Whale" and the "collective silence" of market makers!
From a market structure perspective, the recent decline in Bitcoin can be seen as a strong deleveraging process before the initiation of a new upward trend. Coinglass liquidity data shows that liquidity below $111,000 has been absorbed, with major resistance above around $120,000. The direct trigger for the market movement was the sleeping Whale who publicly converted their Bitcoin holdings to Ethereum and sold off a large amount. When they sold approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, the market makers collectively withdrew liquidity, amplifying the decline; such liquidity withdrawal behavior also occurred on August 17, 2023, after which the market consolidated for nearly a month and broke through previous highs. The current market structure is different from previous years, as the participation of ETFs and institutional funds has accelerated the adjustment pace. Last week, there was a net outflow of $1.17 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum ETFs also ended a consecutive 14-week net inflow, but in the past two days, there have been signs of inflows into Ethereum ETFs. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE price index for July will be released this Friday; if it comes in below expectations, it would strengthen the likelihood of a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for bullish trends at the end of the month. On the industry side, multiple Web3 conferences are being held during this period, and historical data shows that the market is prone to short-term volatility during major conferences. Recent pullbacks have raised concerns among some investors about the end of the bull market. However, from a cyclical perspective, the market rarely ends in a high-interest-rate environment where the expectation of rate cuts still exists. It is reasonable to look for opportunities to exit during profitable conditions, but it is crucial to avoid making erroneous choices based on emotions. The solidification of Bitcoin's top structure does not imply that new highs cannot be reached; rather, it may indicate a reduction in retail opportunities during the subsequent upward trend, and the market still heavily relies on Bitcoin's movements. A bull market will not terminate due to a single adjustment, and we should make rational decisions once signals are clear rather than overreacting at the early stages of volatility. BTC
The daily report indicated that the daily demand zone of 109000-107200 has been reached. There is a rebound demand here, but it is not a reversal! Short-term support is around 109200, and a short-term long position can be attempted, targeting the supply zone of 111900-112900. At the same time, pay attention to distribution opportunities here; after a rebound, there is a high probability of consolidation before the PCE data on Friday!
ETH warned of a stop loss at 4660 yesterday! A rebound is the entry point for short positions! This is the mindset of joining when you can't win! Additionally, the long positions at 4580-4500 yesterday also yielded at least 100 points in profit! The current price still needs to drop back to the starting point from last Friday! Therefore, the area of 4276-4206 is still a zone to wait and position! The current short-term support at 4365-4340 can be tested for longs, with a target near 4480! At the same time, watch for distribution opportunities upon the first touch in the range of 4480-4540!
SOL gave a warning yesterday that it fell below 200, which is also a position to go short on the rebound! If you can't beat them, join them! You can continue to wait for the layout at 180-177. The current short-term support is around 186.5, with resistance above at 190-193!
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A bloodbath triggered by the "ancient Whale" and the "collective silence" of market makers!
From a market structure perspective, the recent decline in Bitcoin can be seen as a strong deleveraging process before the initiation of a new upward trend. Coinglass liquidity data shows that liquidity below $111,000 has been absorbed, with major resistance above around $120,000. The direct trigger for the market movement was the sleeping Whale who publicly converted their Bitcoin holdings to Ethereum and sold off a large amount. When they sold approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, the market makers collectively withdrew liquidity, amplifying the decline; such liquidity withdrawal behavior also occurred on August 17, 2023, after which the market consolidated for nearly a month and broke through previous highs. The current market structure is different from previous years, as the participation of ETFs and institutional funds has accelerated the adjustment pace. Last week, there was a net outflow of $1.17 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum ETFs also ended a consecutive 14-week net inflow, but in the past two days, there have been signs of inflows into Ethereum ETFs. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE price index for July will be released this Friday; if it comes in below expectations, it would strengthen the likelihood of a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for bullish trends at the end of the month. On the industry side, multiple Web3 conferences are being held during this period, and historical data shows that the market is prone to short-term volatility during major conferences. Recent pullbacks have raised concerns among some investors about the end of the bull market. However, from a cyclical perspective, the market rarely ends in a high-interest-rate environment where the expectation of rate cuts still exists. It is reasonable to look for opportunities to exit during profitable conditions, but it is crucial to avoid making erroneous choices based on emotions. The solidification of Bitcoin's top structure does not imply that new highs cannot be reached; rather, it may indicate a reduction in retail opportunities during the subsequent upward trend, and the market still heavily relies on Bitcoin's movements. A bull market will not terminate due to a single adjustment, and we should make rational decisions once signals are clear rather than overreacting at the early stages of volatility.
BTC
The daily report indicated that the daily demand zone of 109000-107200 has been reached. There is a rebound demand here, but it is not a reversal! Short-term support is around 109200, and a short-term long position can be attempted, targeting the supply zone of 111900-112900. At the same time, pay attention to distribution opportunities here; after a rebound, there is a high probability of consolidation before the PCE data on Friday!
ETH warned of a stop loss at 4660 yesterday! A rebound is the entry point for short positions! This is the mindset of joining when you can't win! Additionally, the long positions at 4580-4500 yesterday also yielded at least 100 points in profit! The current price still needs to drop back to the starting point from last Friday! Therefore, the area of 4276-4206 is still a zone to wait and position! The current short-term support at 4365-4340 can be tested for longs, with a target near 4480! At the same time, watch for distribution opportunities upon the first touch in the range of 4480-4540!
SOL gave a warning yesterday that it fell below 200, which is also a position to go short on the rebound! If you can't beat them, join them! You can continue to wait for the layout at 180-177. The current short-term support is around 186.5, with resistance above at 190-193!