Мишлен предупреждает о слабости в первом квартале: снижение продаж, цен и обменных курсов создают давление

Investing.com - Michelin in a Wednesday warning stated that in the first quarter of 2026 sales will show a weak start for the full year; tire unit sales are still declining, pricing has turned negative, and foreign exchange headwinds continue.

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The French tire manufacturer said that, despite a more forgiving year-over-year comparison base, first-quarter sales volume declined in the “low to mid single-digit” percentage range, indicating that most of its key segments’ underlying demand remains weak, including passenger cars and light trucks, commercial vehicles, and the North America Beyond Road agricultural business.

Michelin’s replacement tire market shows some resilience, with consumer segments returning to “moderate growth,” but not enough to offset weakness in other areas.

Pricing was a key profit support in 2025, with a contribution margin of positive 3%, but this quarter it turned negative due to indexation clauses automatically linking contract prices to falling raw material costs, and the inability to pass on U.S. tariff costs in an increasingly competitive market.

It is expected that product mix effects will continue to help offset part of the impact, driven by stronger sales of Michelin’s premium tires and tires of 18 inches and above.

There are no signs that the foreign exchange headwind has weakened. Michelin said that FX pressure is “comparable to the fourth quarter of 2025,” when the impact reached negative €346 million, or 4.9% of net sales. For every 1 cent move in the euro against the U.S. dollar, operating income will be affected by about €30 million.

Management provided no new details on the impact of the Middle East conflict, saying it is not currently facing supply shortages but remains cautious.

The latest information on the input cost scenario (covering raw materials, energy, and freight) is expected to be released on April 29 together with the first-quarter sales data.

Michelin maintained its full-year volume guidance, expecting quarter-on-quarter improvement in 2026, with second-quarter sales volume turning “slightly positive,” and the second half becoming more clearly positive, aiming for a slight increase in full-year volumes.

Barclays rates Michelin as “Underweight” with a target price of €25, while the prior close was €29.22. The firm said the update is “consistent with recent communications,” but noted that the threefold headwinds—volume, price mix, and foreign exchange—are unlikely to be resolved before mid-year.

As of 06:07 a.m. Eastern time (10:07 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time), the company’s stock price is up 4.7%.

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