A brief analysis of BTC intraday/short-term trends from the perspective of the Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, the relationship between volume and price, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions) $BTC ‌#BTC 综合研判 The Dow Theory provides signals that the main trend may be in a turning phase, but the high-volume crash on July 28 is a dangerous signal, and the short-term trend has weakened. Chan Theory shows that upward strokes have moderate force (+1,320) and then downward strokes have extremely strong force (-2,939). Bears fully dominate, and the newly formed rising central pivot fails to establish. In Wave Theory, the failure of the 5-wave sequence has been confirmed. The market is currently in a deep retracement phase, with 62,500 as the key watershed. The volume-price relationship presents a complex combination of "crash with heavy volume + late-session rebound with heavy volume," but the rebound volume is insufficient. Order flow shows POC at 64,092; price has already broken below the POC, and Delta MA12 has turned deeply negative. Price action indicates a bearish "headless hammer" type pattern, followed by the formation of a "hammer candle" double-bottom early pattern; short-term bulls and bears are fiercely competing. Short-term strategy suggestions: Bullish scenario: If price stabilizes around 62,500-63,500 with declining volume while bottoming, plus a bottom fractal pattern and Delta turning positive, you can cautiously go long in a small position. Targets: 64,000 → 64,500 → 65,000. Stop loss: 62,200. Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches around 64,000-64,500 and forms a top fractal pattern accompanied by heavy-volume selloff, confirming that 64,500 resistance is effective, then go short. Targets: 63,000 → 62,500 → 61,750. Stop loss: 65,000. Current status: At 63,718, the market is in a deep retracement phase after the failure of the 5-wave move. Short-term bears have the upper hand, but 62,712 may form a double bottom. The recommendation is mainly to stay on the sidelines, and wait for support confirmation at 62,500-63,500 before making decisions. If 62,500 breaks, the rebound is fully over, and you can chase the short to 61,750.

$BTC As of July 29, 2026, BTC (Bitcoin) is trading in the vicinity of $63.8K, with the current price around $63,880, up about +0.7% over the past 24 hours. The market is in a wait-and-see period ahead of the Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision release, with bulls and bears fighting fiercely in the $63K–$64K range. Current market core data • Price range: The past 24 hours have seen trading between $62,700 and $64,728, with the 50-day moving average (about $63,275) acting as the key intraday line in the sand. • Market cap and volume: Total market cap is about $1.28 trillion, and 24-hour trading volume is about $24.15 billion. Volume has contracted relatively, showing a shrinking-volume choppy range. • Market sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is at 29 (fear zone). Yesterday saw a single-day liquidation of over 160k accounts, with a liquidation amount of $686 million, indicating a leveraged washout. Key technical levels • Overhead resistance: $64,230 (50-day EMA) / $65,000 (whole-dollar level). If there is a breakout above $64,200 with volume, lightly consider going long, targeting $65,000–$66,500. • Downside support: $63,275 (50-day moving average “life-or-death” line) / $62,000 (weekly support). If $63,275 is lost, BTC could quickly drop toward $62,000 or even lower. • Indicator status: Short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish arrangement suppressing price, but the higher-level SuperTrend indicator remains mildly bullish, which is in a “large trend bullish, short-term trend weak” repair phase. Recent trend drivers • Macro focus: The 02:00 Fed FOMC decision is the only key variable today. The market maintains about a 69.5% probability that rates will be kept unchanged, but rate-hike expectations have risen to 30.5%. After the decision, the direction of the dollar will determine BTC’s move. • Fund flows: US spot BTC ETFs have recently seen about $476.5 million in cumulative net outflows over three days, with institutional bids pulling back in phases, putting pressure on liquidity. • Interconnection risk: The Nasdaq is down for five straight days, and the semiconductor sector (Philadelphia Semiconductor -4.49%) has been heavily sold off, dragging crypto sentiment as tech stocks stay weak. Short-term outlook Model forecasts a volatility range for BTC over the next 24–48 hours of about -9.2% to +7.6% (low at $57,947, high at $68,616). Before the FOMC decision lands, it’s recommended to stay mostly on the sidelines, and watch out for a “buy the expectation, sell the fact” spike. Keep position sizing tight and avoid high leverage. Do you want me to help you compile a key observation checklist before and after the Fed decision (e.g., the U.S. dollar index, ETF flow anomalies) to assist in judging direction?

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