Coinbase Institutional: Neutral Outlook for the 2026 Q3 Crypto Market, With Macro Pressure and On-Chain Signals Diverging Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released their report “Charting Crypto Q3 2026,” maintaining a neutral outlook for the crypto market. The report shows that on-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be shifting from a correction phase into an accumulation phase, but a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, weak spot ETF demand, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market prospects. The report notes that total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins fell by about 12% in 2026 Q2, while stablecoin supply rose to a historical high, indicating that some capital may be rotating into stablecoins for temporary risk aversion rather than fully exiting the crypto market. In addition, Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. stock market continues to decline: its 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell from 0.58 in 2025 Q4 to 0.12, while its correlation with gold rose to 0.57, suggesting its trading characteristics are becoming more like a value-storing asset sensitive to interest rates and liquidity. On the flows side, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs both recorded net outflows in the first half of 2026, but the outflow rate slowed, indicating demand may be stabilizing. For Ethereum, the report says it has re-entered the full capitulation range, and as of the end of Q2, the average holder is sitting on paper losses. The report concludes that current macro conditions and on-chain data are sending mixed signals, and the market still needs patience and caution. $BTC ‌$ETH

This time wasn’t chasing the pump to get on board. Instead, I waited until the price repeatedly confirmed around 3.050 before entering, and in the end it ran all the way to 3.692. At the beginning, I was definitely a bit anxious—since the market had been grinding for too long, several false breakouts made people wonder whether we were going to get washed out again. Later, the changes on the chart were very clear: the pullback didn’t keep expanding, there was support at the lows, and the price didn’t drop back into the original weak zone. When the long side truly started to push, I didn’t panic just because there had been a mid-run spike and pullback; instead, I refocused on my original judgment. This trade ultimately was logged as +1492.28%, but the number isn’t the most worth revisiting part. What truly matters is not losing patience during the dull phase, and not getting carried away chasing the order after the market started. Seeing the right direction is only the beginning—keeping the rhythm through to realization is what makes this trade truly complete. $BTC $ETH

I wasn’t expecting to break even anyway, and it directly took me into profit—this market setup is doing a pretty solid job. While others were running, $SLX was already loosening from the high, and the execution speed for the short fills clearly sped up. A few days ago, in the early morning, I rewatched SLX and found that the push up lacked a small amount of fuel to go along with it. Several rebounds were suppressed; the price couldn’t be lifted, and the bids never truly stepped in to catch it. With a low-volume surge plus increasing sell pressure, this wasn’t something to watch for fun—it was about when it would show fatigue. Around 0.21150, I executed my planned long. The current price has come to 0.11767. This reanalysis record is +873.52%. Waiting patiently in the front, then following through—getting the rhythm right matters more than frequent trading. First close 80%. For the remaining 20%, set a cost-price protection. If it keeps moving down, let the profit run; even if it rebounds, don’t easily hand back the results. Profits don’t balloon, and drawdowns aren’t hopeless. Being flat isn’t a crime—reckless entries are the mistake. Don’t chase just because you see a drop. The market doesn’t lack opportunities; what it lacks is patience. Wait until the next shot after the new structure is confirmed. $BTC $ETH