Война между США и Ираном спровоцировала энергетический кризис. Сможет ли экономика США «избежать бедствия»? JPMorgan опровергли слухи

Cailian Press April 7 (Editor Huang Junzhi) Many investors apparently believe that the U.S. economy can completely withstand the energy shock triggered by war, but that’s not the case. This is one of the latest views expressed by Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Markets and Investment Strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Cembalest has many followers on Wall Street. In the past, his reports explored important issues such as the feasibility of large technology companies’ ambitious artificial intelligence construction goals, and recently he has focused his attention on the global energy market. He believes that one of the biggest misconceptions the market has about the Iran conflict is that the U.S. economy will, to a large extent, not be affected by a major shock in energy prices.

He emphasized that although the U.S. is a net exporter of certain fuels, this does not mean that higher global energy costs caused by the Iran conflict will not deal a serious blow to its economy.

In his latest released report, Cembalest said that although the U.S. has succeeded in significantly reducing Iran’s missile and drone attacks, all the headlines about the conflict reminded him of the plot of Stephen King’s novel “Jerusalem’s Lot”.

As he describes it, the book tells a story: “The protagonist goes to a small town called Jerusalem’s Lot with good intentions, wanting to fight evil. However, things don’t go as planned, and the town is eventually laid flat—every resident becomes a vampire, and everyone’s situation is worse than when it began.”

After that, Cembalest discussed the question of “what impact a surge in energy prices caused by war will have on the U.S. economy.”

“Most of the idea that the U.S. won’t be affected by the market consequences brought by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is largely wrong. America’s fossil fuel independence doesn’t provide the economic firewall you think it does.” he added.

What is crucial is that the argument supporting this conclusion by Cembalest is not based on theory or speculation, but comes from what actually happened in the market.

Although major media outlets have been warning about the risks that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses to many European and Asian countries, many refined petroleum product prices in the U.S. market—and even the price of crude oil itself—have risen even more sharply.

“Restarting Hormuz” challenge

President Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran must immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or it will face serious military consequences. The latest deadline set by Trump expires on Tuesday evening—but so far, the main conclusion Iran has drawn from its efforts to turn the globe’s energy artery into a “toll road” is that this strategy has been unexpectedly effective.

To support this, Cembalest cited a comment by Middle East economist Dina Esfandiary, that Iran has already realized that “taking hostage of the global economy” is far cheaper and easier than it had expected.

Cembalest noted that even if the strait reopens tomorrow, production in the region will still take some time to recover to pre-conflict levels. In addition, there are some factors that could cause the situation to escalate. For example, the interception missiles of the U.S., Israel, and Gulf countries may soon run out.

He further explained that Iran’s significant progress in drone manufacturing capabilities has enhanced the country’s ability to conduct asymmetric warfare. The chart below clearly shows this gap.

“Although the drones’ payload is much smaller, just a small amount of payload can cause massive damage to expensive aircraft, ships, and radar systems. But on the other hand, the unit cost of drones carries more payload than many missile systems,” he wrote.