Настроения в геополитической ситуации колеблются, индекс доллара продолжает расти

App 汇通财经 сообщает —— According to App 汇通财经, as investors’ doubts about the Iran war ending quickly continue to grow, market risk-averse sentiment has notably intensified and directly pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. dollar also strengthening in tandem. President Trump clearly stated in his national television address on Wednesday evening that the United States will “hit Iran extremely forcefully” within the next two or three weeks. This statement sharply contrasts with his claim the day before that U.S. forces would withdraw from Iran within two or three weeks, completely dashing market hopes that the conflict would soon end.

Trump’s latest remarks regarding Iran have further heightened uncertainty. In his address, he emphasized that military action will be pushed forward “extremely forcefully,” and he explicitly pointed out that if there is no agreement, the United States will deliver devastating blows to key targets such as Iran’s power generation facilities, which stands in stark contrast to the relatively mild expectations of troop withdrawal from the previous day. The market quickly interpreted this as the conflict’s duration possibly exceeding earlier optimistic judgments, leading to faster inflows of risk-hedging capital into U.S. dollar assets, while crude oil futures were again raised on concerns about potential disruptions to Middle East supply.

From a structural perspective, the U.S. dollar receives dual strong support: first, its traditional safe-haven status is significantly amplified in a high geopolitical-risk environment; second, the advantage of the United States as a net oil exporter makes the dollar more resilient than other major currencies in a high oil-price environment. The latest data show that the Brent crude price has surged to 107.76 U.S. dollars per barrel, up about 6.5% from the previous day, and WTI crude for the same period has also broken through the 106 U.S. dollars per barrel threshold. This oil price increase directly reflects investors’ growing concerns about the security of energy corridors, while further strengthening the appeal of the U.S. dollar.

In this context, the U.S. dollar maintains strength; the latest U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises to around 100.05, up about 0.5% from the session’s low point before the speech. High oil prices raise global inflation expectations, which further weakens market expectations for the Federal Reserve to quickly ease policy; rising real yields also indirectly supports the dollar’s pricing.

To intuitively show changes in key market indicators before and after Trump’s speech, the following is a data comparison:

Overall, Trump’s shift in tone not only extends the market’s expected timeline for the conflict, but also—through a resonance between energy prices and safe-haven logic—provides the U.S. dollar with sustained short-term momentum. Investors are closely watching subsequent military developments and the energy market response; if conflict signals continue to strengthen, the linked pattern of rising oil prices and the dollar is expected to become further entrenched.

Editor’s summary

Trump’s hardline shift on military action toward Iran is reshaping the current risk-pricing framework for exchange rates and commodities through a dual mechanism: risk-averse sentiment and the advantage of a net oil exporter. The combined effect of oil prices staying at high levels and a strong dollar will continue to test global market stability until the conflict shows clear de-escalation signals or there is substantial progress in energy supply recovery.

(Responsible editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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