Почему план пересмотра избирательных округов в Техасе не является гарантированным

ВАШИНГТОН (AP) — Техас задал основу для предстоящей в этом году схватки вокруг перераспределения избирательных округов, нарисовав новую карту для выборов в Конгресс, которая призвана усилить позиции республиканцев на выборах в середине срока. Теперь, когда праймериз уже идут, надежды партии зависят от ключевого вопроса — придут ли на избирательные участки избиратели, помогавшие избрать президента Дональда Трампа два года назад, чтобы проголосовать за других кандидатов-республиканцев, если он не будет в бюллетене.

Считается, что новая карта поможет республиканцам отвоевать пять мест, удерживаемых демократами — цель, поставленная Трампом. Если они добьются успеха, демократам будут принадлежать лишь восемь из 38 округов штата — вместо нынешних 13.

Республиканцы преследовали эту цель с помощью тактики, называемой «cracking» («раздробление»), то есть распределения демократ-ориентированных избирателей по округам, которые включают больше избирателей, склонных к республиканским взглядам. Так демократам сложнее собрать большинство в отдельных гонках в Конгресс.

Но математика за всем этим не так проста. Предсказать, будут ли те или иные избиратели склоняться влево или вправо, или же они вообще придут голосовать, сложно, и ошибка может иметь последствия.

Один из распространенных подходов — смотреть на самые последние всеобщие выборы. Логика проста: как последнее выражение предпочтений избирателей, это дает самый актуальный срез настроений электората.

                        Похожие материалы
                    
                

        
    
    
    
    







    
        

                
                    



    
        


  




    




    




    





    







    
        

            
            
            На что обратить внимание, когда Трамп обратится к нации о войне с Ираном
        

    

  

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            4 МИН ЧТЕНИЯ
        

    
    
    
    







    

    

    

    

    
    



                
            

    
        

                
                    



    
        


  




    




    




    





    







    
        

            
            
            Союзник Трампа дает показания на процессе по делу о тайной лоббистской кампании в Венесуэле
        

    

  

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            6 МИН ЧТЕНИЯ
        

    
    
    
    







    

    

    

    

    
    



                
            

    
        

                
                    



    
        


  




    




    




    





    







    
        

            
            
            США снимают санкции с исполняющего обязанности президента Венесуэлы Дельси Родригес
        

    

  

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            2 МИН ЧТЕНИЯ
        

    
    
    
    







    

    

    

    

    
    



                
            

    
        

                
                    



    
        


  




    




    




    





    







    
        

            
            
            11
        

    

  

    

    
    







    
    
        
        
    
    
    
    
        

            4 МИН ЧТЕНИЯ

The new map is more likely to deliver those five seats to the GOP if Texans vote the same way they did in the 2024 presidential election — that is, Trump voters stick with Republicans and Kamala Harris voters stick with Democrats. Under that assumption, seats like the new 28th and 34th Districts, which are currently represented by Democrats, would flip to Republican control.

But any single election is also shaped by its broader political environment. Was the incumbent party unpopular? How did voters feel about the economy?

In the case of 2024, those answers are “yes” and “bad.” The election was a strong one for Republicans nationwide, and especially for Trump. An Associated Press analysis finds that if voters in 2026 were to cast ballots the same way they did in the 2024 presidential race, most of those races would not be particularly close. Only four would have margins within 15 percentage points.

However, applying the results of a more Democratic-leaning election to the new districts makes the picture appear more muddled. If voters revert to their 2020 presidential preferences, Republicans will have a harder time gaining all five seats.

            When looking at 2020 presidential results on the new map instead of 2024, districts along the southern border, which have a high proportion of Hispanic voters, shift from narrow Republican margins to narrow Democratic ones. Others, such as districts in and around Dallas, move from strongly Republican to more competitive, though still GOP-leaning. Under 2020 voting patterns, nine districts would have margins within 15 points.

To be clear, some seats — like a Dallas-area seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey, which has been stretched to include more Republican-leaning voters — include enough Republican-leaning areas that even 2020-style voting would not keep them in the Democratic column.

Rather than seek reelection in the redder version of his district, Veasey is retiring from Congress.

“The city of Fort Worth has no Democratic representation,” Veasey said of the new maps.

“It’s going to be sad,” Veasey added. “I feel terrible.”

The question will be whether voters Trump picked up in 2024 will stick with his party in the midterms. While the country as a whole shifted to the right in 2024 compared with 2020, some demographic groups moved more sharply than others. Hispanic voters in particular — who are heavily represented along the border and in several Texas cities — supported Trump at higher rates than they had four years earlier.

There are warning signs for this plan, particularly in heavily Hispanic areas: Even as Trump made double-digit improvements in his margins along the southern border, those voters also returned Democratic incumbent Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez to Congress. Both are running again in reconstituted districts.

Ultimately, the success of Texas’ new congressional map hinges on a central uncertainty: whether 2024 marked a durable political realignment or a high-water mark for Republican gains among key constituencies. The coming primaries won’t answer that question on their own — but they will offer the first clues as to whether the map’s architects bet correctly.