Huaxi Securities: Высококлассные литий-ионные аккумуляторы + PCB-продукты в росте, медная фольга встречает период увеличения объема и прибыли

West China Securities research report states that copper foil is a clear-cut heavy-asset industry, and its core raw material—copper price—is high, resulting in a large cash-flow requirement; therefore, in the early stage, the scale of incremental production capacity was limited. Under the subsequent trend of rapid growth in demand for power + energy storage batteries, capacity supply is rather tight, and processing fees have shown an upward trend. In addition, driven by the rapid development of AI technology, PCB copper foil is expected to achieve large-scale volume growth, which will further crowd out the production capacity of lithium battery copper foil. Combined with the high product performance requirements and the high difficulty of the process, the processing-fee space is relatively attractive, which will enhance suppliers’ profitability.

The full text is as follows

【West China Electric & New】Copper foil special report: High-end lithium battery + PCB products ramp up, the copper-foil industry enters a phase of volume and profit growth

(1) Lithium battery copper foil: The ultra-thin trend is clear, and the supply-demand landscape gradually tightens

Demand is upward, and the shipment volume is expected to keep growing rapidly. According to GGII data, in 2025 the shipment volume of lithium battery copper foil reached 0.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%; benefiting from the continuous expansion of downstream demand, in 2026 shipments are expected to reach 1.15-1.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 20%.

Under the demand for cost optimization + performance improvement, the ultra-thin trend is clear. 1) With copper prices staying high, the demand to reduce costs drives the shift. Based on our estimates, for a 1GWh battery, using a 4.5-micron product instead of a 6-micron product can significantly reduce the use of copper by more than 100 tons and reduce costs by more than 10 million yuan. 2) The requirements for performance upgrades continue to rise. Each 1μm reduction in copper foil thickness can increase the battery energy density by about 2%. According to GGII data, in 2025, within the domestic lithium battery copper foil shipment structure, the share of ultra-thin 5/4.5μm products increased to 25%, and is expected to further rise to 50% in 2026.

4.5μm processing fees have a more advantageous profile, and volume expansion of ultra-thin products brings thicker profit margins. The price of 4.5μm lithium battery copper foil products saw a clear increase in 2025Q4, with a rise of about 3000 yuan/ton. Compared with 6μm, the price difference is about 7000 yuan/ton. Lithium battery copper foil manufacturers with the capacity to ramp up 4.5μm products will benefit from the industry’s volume-and-profit synchronized upward opportunity.

Limited capacity expansion leads to tight supply-demand conditions, reshaping the clearance pattern in the tail segment. In the lithium battery copper foil industry, because the raw material copper price is high and the cash-flow occupation scale is large, and because of its strong heavy-asset attributes, during the period when demand for the lithium battery industry was weak in the early stage, companies were relatively cautious about expanding capacity, resulting in limited incremental capacity. Meanwhile, years of losses among tail-end companies caused significant funding pressure, leading to gradual exit from the market, and the industry shows a trend toward more concentrated competition. In 2025, CR5 of domestic lithium battery copper foil manufacturers was 45.8%, up 2.3% from last year.

Expect production capacity supply to be relatively tight; operating rates stay at a high level, and customers sign multiple supply-guarantee agreements. According to SMM data, starting in September 2025, the overall operating rate in the copper foil industry increased to above 80%, and is expected to further rise to a high level of 90% in March 2026. Many battery makers and copper foil suppliers sign supply-guarantee agreements to ensure stable supply. Under the trend of relatively tight supply-demand conditions, copper foil processing fees are expected to enter an upward channel.

(2) Electronic circuit copper foil: Strong demand for high frequency and high speed, and active domestic layout

AI computing power + electrification + consumer electronics iteration drive the expansion of PCB-level copper foil scale. According to the prospectus of Tongbo Technology and data from Frost & Sullivan, it is expected that in 2029 the global PCB-level copper foil market size will grow from 47.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 71.7 billion yuan in 2029, with a CAGR of 8.5%; in 2029, global PCB-level copper foil for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing is expected to reach 6.77 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 36.1% from 2024 to 2029.

Improvement in computing performance—server architecture upgrade—PCB iteration—copper foil performance optimization. Copper foil, as a basic component of PCB, plays the role of a carrier for signal transmission and directly affects the signal transmission efficiency and stability of electronic devices. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and iterate copper foil product technologies and processes to meet the usage demands of downstream end terminals. Among them, high-frequency and high-speed copper foils such as HVLP (extremely low profile copper foil) and RTF (reversed copper foil) are expected to benefit from the explosion of computing-power demand.

Domestic manufacturers actively lay out high-end PCB copper foil; higher processing fees thicken suppliers’ profit space. Since the processing difficulty for high-frequency high-speed PCB copper foil is relatively high and product performance requirements are strict, processing fees are correspondingly high. Moreover, under factors such as copper prices remaining high and supply being tight, prices are expected to continue to rise, which benefits domestic copper foil suppliers entering the market and enhancing their profitability.

Investment recommendation

Copper foil is a clear-cut heavy-asset industry, and its core raw material copper price is relatively high; since it occupies a large amount of cash flow, the scale of incremental production capacity was limited in the early stage. Under the trend of rapid growth in demand for power + energy storage batteries in the later stage, capacity supply is rather tight, and processing fees have shown an upward trend. In addition, driven by the rapid development of AI technology, PCB copper foil is expected to achieve large-scale volume expansion, which will further crowd out lithium battery copper foil production capacity. Combined with the high product performance requirements and the high process difficulty, the processing-fee space is relatively considerable, which will enhance suppliers’ profitability.

Benefiting targets: Nord Shares, Tongguan Copper Foil, Zhongyi Technology, DeFu Technology, Gaya Technology, etc.

Risk warning: 1) Changes in industry policies; 2) Large fluctuations in raw material and product prices; 3) Rapid capacity expansion leading to intensified competition; 4) New product releases not meeting expectations; 5) Rapid changes in industry technology and process routes, etc.

（Source: First Finance）