От мифа о высоких доходах до кризиса ликвидности: насколько опасен скрытый риск в частных инвестициях?

持有22万亿美元资产、游离于银行监管视野之外的全球私募资本行业，正面临自2008年金融危机以来最严峻的压力测试。
High-yield myth is rapidly fading, and the shadow of a liquidity crisis is already looming.

据英国《金融时报》报道，多只面向个人投资者发行的私募信贷"半流动"基金已相继触发赎回上限，并启动"门控"机制暂停提款。
According to the Financial Times, several “semi-liquid” private credit funds aimed at individual investors have triggered redemption limits and activated “gate” mechanisms to suspend withdrawals.

近4万亿美元可能被高估的私募股权交易在高利率与地缘政治动荡下难以退出，行业融资规模较2021年峰值腰斩近半。
Nearly $4 trillion in potentially overvalued private equity transactions are struggling to exit amid high interest rates and geopolitical turmoil, with the industry’s financing scale halving compared to its peak in 2021.

Guggenheim Partners执行主席Alan Schwartz直言：“私募债务市场的根基已出现裂缝，任何涉及流动性匮乏且估值不透明资产的抛售，都可能对金融市场造成剧烈冲击。”
Alan Schwartz, Executive Chairman of Guggenheim Partners, bluntly stated, “The foundations of the private debt market have cracked, and any sell-off of illiquid and opaque assets could have severe repercussions for the financial markets.”

英国央行行长Andrew Bailey亦表示，私募信贷贷款"切割与重组"的方式令其"警钟大响"，呼应着2008年次贷危机前美国次级抵押贷款被重新包装、销往全球的历史回响。
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, also stated that the way private credit loans are “sliced and restructured” has set off alarm bells, echoing the historical reverberations of the repackaging and global sale of subprime mortgages in the U.S. before the 2008 crisis.

行业龙头对危机类比予以强烈反驳，黑石集团首席执行官Jon Gray称此类比较是他"从未见过的如此脱离现实的判断"。
Industry leaders strongly refute the crisis comparisons, with Blackstone CEO Jon Gray stating that such comparisons are “the most divorced from reality judgment I’ve ever seen.”

但随着风险敞口从养老基金、保险公司蔓延至数以万计的普通储蓄者，加之特朗普开放401(k)退休储蓄账户投资私募资产，这场高收益承诺与流动性现实之间的博弈，正在被输送给越来越广泛的人群。
However, as risk exposure spreads from pension funds and insurance companies to tens of thousands of ordinary savers, coupled with Trump’s opening of 401(k) retirement savings accounts to invest in private assets, the game between high-yield promises and liquidity realities is being passed on to an increasingly broader audience.

从边缘到巨擘：私募资本的崛起之路
From the Margins to Giants: The Rise of Private Capital

私募资本的壮大并非一蹴而就。
The growth of private capital did not happen overnight.

数十年前，KKR创始人Henry Kravis和George Roberts不过是小型交易团队，靠廉价收购停滞期的企业资产起家，雄心仅受限于当时可用银行信贷的规模。
Decades ago, KKR founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts were just a small trading team that started by cheaply acquiring stagnant corporate assets, their ambitions limited only by the scale of available bank credit at the time.

1980年代，Michael Milken的Drexel Burnham Lambert将垃圾债券和高杠杆收购普及化，为行业提供了梦寐以求的信贷弹药。
In the 1980s, Michael Milken’s Drexel Burnham Lambert popularized junk bonds and leveraged buyouts, providing the industry with the coveted credit ammunition.

Drexel于1990年倒闭，但其前高管遍布华尔街，分别创立了Apollo、Ares和Cerberus等日后举足轻重的机构。
Drexel went bankrupt in 1990, but its former executives spread across Wall Street, founding crucial institutions like Apollo, Ares, and Cerberus.

2008年至2010年金融危机成为私募资本真正的历史转折点。
The financial crisis from 2008 to 2010 became a true historical turning point for private capital.

传统银行受监管约束、退出风险贷款之际，私募资本填补了空缺，向信用资质较弱的企业提供融资。
As traditional banks faced regulatory constraints and exited riskier loans, private capital filled the gap by providing financing to companies with weaker credit profiles.

超低利率压低了融资成本，养老基金和捐赠基金纷纷涌入寻求更高回报，部分机构将私募资产配置比例提升至投资组合的30%。
Ultra-low interest rates lowered financing costs, and pension funds and endowment funds rushed in seeking higher returns, with some institutions raising their allocation to private assets to 30% of their portfolios.

私募信贷由此成长为规模达2万亿美元的市场，自2004年以来年化回报率接近10%，部分私募资本集团的市值甚至超越高盛等蓝筹投行。
Private credit thus grew into a $2 trillion market, with annualized returns approaching 10% since 2004, and the market capitalization of some private capital groups even surpassing blue-chip investment banks like Goldman Sachs.

2021年，行业募资总额创下1.2万亿美元的历史纪录，收购价格倍数在此前十年间近乎翻番。
In 2021, the industry raised a historic total of $1.2 trillion, and acquisition price multiples nearly doubled over the previous decade.

资金来源也日益多元化——亚洲房地产大亨、美国富裕牙医，乃至法国普罗旺斯的退休医生，均成为黑石集团、Apollo、Blue Owl、Ares等机构争夺的个人投资者目标，迄今合计吸纳逾2000亿美元。
The sources of funding have also become increasingly diversified—Asian real estate tycoons, affluent American dentists, and even retired doctors from Provence, France, have become targets for individual investors sought by Blackstone, Apollo, Blue Owl, Ares, and others, accumulating over $200 billion to date.

Tikehau Capital联合创始人Mathieu Chabran正是在父亲收到黑石集团私募债基金的推介手册后，意识到"美国巨型管理机构的财富与增长，正越来越多地源自零售渠道"，并担忧这类基金正被误售给缺乏经验的普通投资者。
Mathieu Chabran, co-founder of Tikehau Capital, realized after his father received a brochure for Blackstone’s private debt fund that “the wealth and growth of America’s giant management institutions increasingly comes from retail channels” and worried that such funds are being mis-sold to inexperienced ordinary investors.

银行与保险：风险的隐性传导网络
Banks and Insurance: The Hidden Transmission Network of Risk

私募资本的崛起并非在封闭环境中完成。
The rise of private capital has not occurred in a closed environment.

传统银行和保险公司的深度参与，编织出一张看不见的风险网络。
The deep involvement of traditional banks and insurance companies has woven an invisible network of risk.

银行发现，通过私募信贷渠道放贷在资本监管上更为有利。
Banks have found that lending through private credit channels is more favorable in terms of capital regulation.

汇丰企业与机构银行业务首席执行官Michael Roberts在英国金融服务监管委员会作证时解释称，以担保形式向私募信贷提供贷款享有特殊监管待遇——银行可能仅需为此持有20%的资本金，而直接向同一借款人放贷则须持有100%。
Michael Roberts, CEO of HSBC’s Corporate and Institutional Banking, explained while testifying before the UK’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority that providing loans to private credit in secured form enjoys special regulatory treatment—banks may only need to hold 20% of the capital for this, while directly lending to the same borrower requires holding 100%.

据穆迪截至2025年6月的估算，银行向私募信贷行业的贷款规模达3000亿美元，另向私募股权基金贷款2850亿美元。
According to Moody’s estimates as of June 2025, the loans from banks to the private credit industry amount to $300 billion, with another $285 billion loaned to private equity funds.

美国财政部金融研究办公室则估计，银行及其他贷款机构对私募信贷基金的总敞口或高达5400亿美元，尽管该机构亦指出，总体而言"杠杆风险尚属有限"。
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research estimates that the total exposure of banks and other lending institutions to private credit funds could reach $540 billion, although the agency also notes that “overall, leverage risk remains limited.”

保险公司同样深度卷入。
Insurance companies are also deeply involved.

理论上，人寿保险和年金公司对保单持有人的长期承诺，使其天然契合私募信贷的长周期资产。
In theory, life insurance and annuity companies’ long-term commitments to policyholders make them naturally well-suited to long-duration assets like private credit.

然而，监管机构和部分华尔街高管已日益警惕。
However, regulators and some Wall Street executives have become increasingly vigilant.

Apollo将大量贷款出售给其2022年收购的保险公司Athene，引发外界对资产定价与审查是否充分的质疑。
Apollo has sold a large amount of loans to its insurance company Athene, acquired in 2022, raising external concerns about whether asset pricing and scrutiny are adequate.

部分业内人士还对所谓"评级购物"现象——即向规模较小的评级机构寻求比主流机构更高评级——深表忧虑。
Some industry insiders have also expressed concerns about the so-called “rating shopping” phenomenon—seeking higher ratings from smaller rating agencies compared to mainstream ones.

瑞银主席Colm Kelleher去年11月警告，此类现象可能对全球金融体系形成"系统性风险"。
Colm Kelleher, Chairman of UBS, warned last November that such phenomena could pose “systemic risks” to the global financial system.

回报下滑与软件"AI雷区"
Declining Returns and the Software “AI Minefield”

私募股权的高回报承诺，正被利率上行与地缘政治压力逐步侵蚀。
The high return promises of private equity are being gradually eroded by rising interest rates and geopolitical pressures.

近4万亿美元被潜在高估的交易陷于难以退出的困局，行业融资规模较2021年峰值下降约一半，众多中型基金无法完成新一轮募资。
Nearly $4 trillion in potentially overvalued transactions are trapped in a difficult exit situation, with the industry’s financing scale dropping by about half compared to its peak in 2021, and many mid-sized funds are unable to complete new fundraising rounds.

据对冲基金Davidson Kempner统计，2015年以来约四分之一的私募股权基金未能达到触发绩效提成的回报门槛。
According to hedge fund Davidson Kempner, about a quarter of private equity funds have failed to meet the return thresholds required to trigger performance fees since 2015.

超过10%的私募股权持股企业选择增加债务，而非以现金偿还利息。
More than 10% of private equity-owned companies have chosen to increase debt rather than paying interest in cash.

软件资产已成为重灾区。
Software assets have become a disaster zone.

信贷投资机构Diameter Capital联合创始人Scott Goodwin指出，人工智能带来的"AI风险因素"影响着过去10年间逾半数由私募股权投资、私募信贷融资的交易，涵盖医疗健康、金融服务及其他专业服务领域的软件相关收购——约占行业整体活动量的三分之一。
Scott Goodwin, co-founder of credit investment firm Diameter Capital, pointed out that the “AI risk factors” brought by artificial intelligence have affected over half of the transactions financed by private equity investments and private credit over the past decade, covering software-related acquisitions in healthcare, financial services, and other professional service areas—accounting for about one-third of the overall industry activity.

Beil预计，第一季度财报最终确认后，软件领域将迎来一波集中减记潮，而这恰恰曾是"私募股权过去十年的黄金交易"。
Beil expects that after the final confirmation of first-quarter financial reports, the software sector will face a wave of concentrated write-downs, which were precisely the “golden transactions of private equity over the past decade.”

在债务端，KKR和贝莱德旗下基金已对多笔持仓进行大幅减记，曾轻松跑赢高收益债券等公开市场产品的投资工具如今被迫下调资产估值。
On the debt side, KKR and BlackRock’s funds have made significant write-downs on several holdings, and investment tools that once easily outperformed high-yield bonds and other public market products are now forced to lower asset valuations.

贝莱德高管Michael Patterson本月在致旗下私募信贷基金高净值投资者的信中坦言，当前是"令人不安的时刻"，人工智能将如何重塑个人与经济格局，存在"真实的、影响深远的不确定性"。
Michael Patterson, a BlackRock executive, admitted in a letter to high-net-worth investors in its private credit fund this month that it is “a disconcerting time,” with “real, far-reaching uncertainties” about how artificial intelligence will reshape individual and economic landscapes.

赎回潮冲击"半流动"基金
Redemption Wave Impacts “Semi-Liquid” Funds

回报下滑迅速传导至赎回端。
The decline in returns has quickly transmitted to the redemption side.

被称为"半流动"基金的产品允许投资者每季度赎回不超过净资产5%的份额，这一设计旨在防止资产被迫低价抛售。
Products known as “semi-liquid” funds allow investors to redeem no more than 5% of net assets per quarter, a design aimed at preventing forced sales of assets at low prices.

然而随着赎回上限陆续触及，多只基金已启动"门控"机制，限制资金流出。
However, as redemption limits are increasingly reached, several funds have activated “gate” mechanisms to restrict capital outflows.

前高盛首席执行官Lloyd Blankfein近期向英国《金融时报》表示，距上一次重大信贷市场崩溃已久，流动性错配正变得愈发可能。
Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein recently told the Financial Times that it has been a long time since the last major credit market collapse, and liquidity mismatches are becoming increasingly likely.

"一旦出现冲击，你将发现大量以市场无法实现的价格持续计价的资产，"他说。
“Once a shock occurs, you will find a large number of assets continuously priced at levels that the market cannot realize,” he said.

部分美国养老金和高校捐赠基金已开始在二级市场折价出售私募股权基金份额，并着手剥离信贷组合。
Some American pension funds and university endowment funds have begun to sell private equity fund shares at a discount in the secondary market and are starting to divest credit portfolios.

财富顾问Patrick Dwyer（NewEdge Wealth）已建议客户削减对收购基金的敞口，并直言，2022年前募集的基金"已经完蛋了"——他认为，私募资本机构扩张过快、吸纳了过多资金，被迫投向质量每况愈下的交易，清算时刻不可避免。
Wealth advisor Patrick Dwyer (NewEdge Wealth) has advised clients to reduce exposure to buyout funds, stating bluntly that funds raised before 2022 are “done”—he believes that private capital institutions expanded too quickly, absorbing too much capital and forced to invest in declining quality deals, making a liquidation moment inevitable.

监管警钟与行业反驳：这一次真的不同吗？
Regulatory Alarm Bells and Industry Rebuttals: Is This Time Really Different?

监管机构的警告日趋密集。
Regulatory warnings are becoming increasingly frequent.

Andrew Bailey指出，私募信贷的贷款处理方式有着2008年次贷危机前历史的"令人不安的回响"，英国央行今年将对相关风险溢出场景展开专项压力测试，监管层重点关注该行业透明度不足、风险管理薄弱及其与银行体系的深度关联。
Andrew Bailey pointed out that the way private credit loans are handled has “unsettling echoes” of history before the 2008 subprime crisis, and the Bank of England will conduct special stress tests on related risk spillover scenarios this year, focusing on the industry’s lack of transparency, weak risk management, and its deep ties to the banking system.

ICG Advisors联席首席投资官Terry Monis也提出疑问：“银行在商业发展公司和私募信贷领域承受的痛苦，是否会令其在其他领域收缩风险？”
Terry Monis, Co-Chief Investment Officer of ICG Advisors, also raised a question: “Will the pain that banks are experiencing in the commercial development company and private credit space lead them to shrink risk in other areas?”

但私募行业龙头对系统性危机的类比持强烈异议。
However, leaders in the private industry strongly disagree with the comparisons to systemic crises.

Jon Gray指出，私募基金杠杆倍数通常仅为1至2倍（部分基金超过3倍），远低于银行约15倍的水平；私募资本锁定期更长，不像银行存款可在一夜之间被提取。
Jon Gray pointed out that the leverage multiples of private equity funds are typically only 1 to 2 times (some funds exceed 3 times), far below the approximately 15 times level of banks; private capital has longer lock-up periods and cannot be withdrawn overnight like bank deposits.

他补充称，“确实会有违约，我们看到一些企业将面临挑战，但我们并非处于衰退期……这如何给金融体系带来增量风险，没有人向我解释清楚。”
He added, “There will indeed be defaults, and we see some companies facing challenges, but we are not in a recession… how this brings incremental risk to the financial system, no one has explained that to me.”

Alan Schwartz则持折中立场：他承认市场存在过激行为，但表示"不认为程度之深、影响之广与2008年相当"——尽管他彼时领导的贝尔斯登正是那场危机的导火索之一。
Alan Schwartz takes a middle-ground stance: he acknowledges that there are extreme behaviors in the market but states that he “does not think the depth and breadth of the impact are comparable to 2008”—even though the Bear Stearns he led was one of the sparks of that crisis.

分化前景：整合还是清算？
Divergent Prospects: Integration or Liquidation?

业内人士倾向于将这轮压力与1980年代原始私募股权泡沫的消化过程相比拟。
Industry insiders tend to compare this round of pressure to the digestion process of the original private equity bubble in the 1980s.

彼时的危机最终未对金融体系造成根本性破坏，部分至今仍活跃的机构，正是靠从困境中的保险公司和养老基金手中低价买入垃圾债券起家。
The crisis at that time ultimately did not cause fundamental damage to the financial system, with some institutions that are still active today having started by buying junk bonds at low prices from struggling insurance companies and pension funds.

这一次，包括Apollo在内的多家巨头已积累起充足战争储备，准备从同行的困境中寻找机会。
This time, several giants, including Apollo, have accumulated ample war chests, ready to seek opportunities from the troubles of their peers.

然而，Dwyer预言私募股权将迎来"清算日"：机构将被迫推动持仓企业上市，即便这意味着投资者须承受减值损失。
However, Dwyer predicts that private equity will face a “day of reckoning”: institutions will be forced to push their portfolio companies to go public, even if it means investors must endure impairment losses.

私募股权持股企业还面临AI冲击带来的技术颠覆风险，他预计企业违约率将因此上升。
Private equity-owned companies also face the risk of technological disruption brought by AI, and he expects the default rate of companies to rise as a result.

"资金太多，每个人都变得贪婪，他们杀死了会下金蛋的鹅，"他说。
“There is too much money, and everyone has become greedy; they have killed the goose that lays the golden eggs,” he said.

更深层的隐忧在于趋势的延续。
A deeper concern lies in the continuation of trends.

特朗普允许401(k)退休储蓄账户投资私募资产，"零售化"进程已难以逆转——这意味着，更多并不充分理解流动性风险的普通储蓄者将被纳入这一体系。
Trump’s allowance for 401(k) retirement savings accounts to invest in private assets has made the “retailization” process difficult to reverse—this means that more ordinary savers who do not fully understand liquidity risks will be included in this system.

正如Mathieu Chabran所言，普通退休人士与亚洲主权财富基金在评估同一笔投资时，能力与信息的鸿沟本质上无法弥合。
As Mathieu Chabran said, there is a fundamental gap in ability and information that ordinary retirees and Asian sovereign wealth funds cannot bridge when evaluating the same investment.

私募资本的下一场压力测试，或许才刚刚开始。
The next stress test for private capital may just be beginning.

风险提示及免责条款
Risk Warning and Disclaimer

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。
The market has risks, and investment should be cautious.

本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。
This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the individual user’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs.

用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。
Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances.

据此投资，责任自负。
Investing based on this is at your own risk.