Предварительная торговля: фьючерсы на NASDAQ снизились на 0,4%, FedEx вырос более чем на 10%

由于市场情绪仍对中东战争任何升级迹象高度敏感，周五美股股指期货小幅走低，布伦特原油则恢复上涨，债券也回吐了早盘涨幅。

As the market sentiment remains highly sensitive to any signs of escalation in the Middle East conflict, U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Friday, Brent crude oil rebounded, and bonds also gave back early gains.

截至发稿，道指期货跌0.3%，标普500期指跌0.3%，纳指期货跌0.4%。

As of the time of publication, Dow futures were down 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.4%.

在欧洲，斯托克600指数在周四大跌后反弹0.5%，但仍可能录得连续第三周下跌。中东冲突持续扩大以及油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀的担忧，并提高了欧洲央行加息的可能性。

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rebounded by 0.5% after a significant drop on Thursday, but it could still record its third consecutive week of decline. The ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices have exacerbated inflation concerns and increased the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

其中，权重较大的金融板块成为主要推动力量；而能源板块则因原油价格回落下跌0.7%。该基准指数本周迄今已下跌1.1%。若连续三周收跌，这将是其自2025年4月以来最长的一轮周线连跌。

Among them, the heavily weighted financial sector was the main driving force; while the energy sector fell by 0.7% due to a drop in oil prices. The benchmark index has fallen 1.1% so far this week. If it closes lower for three consecutive weeks, it will be the longest weekly decline since April 2025.

美国股指期货大多小幅下挫，标普500指数期货下跌0.3%，这意味着该基准指数可能录得自2025年3月以来最长的连续周线下跌。

U.S. stock index futures mostly edged lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, which indicates that the benchmark index could record its longest consecutive weekly decline since March 2025.

联邦快递在周四盘后发布财报并上调全年展望后，盘前股价大涨逾10%。超微电脑盘前则暴跌近20%，此前美国司法部起诉书指控其两名员工和一名承包商违规出售价值数十亿美元的人工智能服务器。

FedEx’s stock price surged more than 10% in pre-market trading after releasing its earnings report and raising its full-year outlook on Thursday. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices plunged nearly 20% in pre-market trading after the U.S. Department of Justice’s indictment accused two of its employees and a contractor of illegally selling billions of dollars of AI servers.

亚洲股市周五表现分化，整体相对平稳。韩国综合股价指数收涨0.3%，而香港恒生指数收跌1.2%。日本股市因假期休市。

Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Friday, remaining relatively stable overall. The South Korean Composite Stock Price Index closed up 0.3%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.2%. Japan’s stock market was closed for a holiday.

伊朗发起新一轮报复性导弹袭击

Iran has launched a new round of retaliatory missile strikes.

在中东最新局势发展方面，伊朗继续对邻国发动袭击，尽管以色列表示将避免袭击伊朗的能源基础设施。就在一天前，美国总统特朗普曾要求以色列不要再次打击伊朗的天然气基础设施。

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran continues to launch attacks on its neighbors, despite Israel’s statement that it will avoid striking Iran’s energy infrastructure. Just a day earlier, U.S. President Trump had urged Israel not to attack Iran’s gas infrastructure again.

以色列表示，其打击了伊朗多地基础设施，包括首都德黑兰在内；与此同时，伊朗则发起了新一轮报复性导弹袭击。

Israel stated that it has targeted Iranian infrastructure in multiple locations, including the capital Tehran; meanwhile, Iran has launched a new round of retaliatory missile strikes.

悉尼 Van Eck Associates Corp． 跨资产策略师 Anna Wu 表示：“美国、以色列以及其他一些国家都在试图管理风险，因为战争通过能源渠道带来的影响正在扩大。美国方面传递出的叙事看起来略微更具希望，但市场共识几乎每天都在变化。”

Anna Wu, a cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp in Sydney, stated: “The U.S., Israel, and several other countries are trying to manage risks as the impact of the war through energy channels is expanding. The narrative coming from the U.S. appears slightly more hopeful, but market consensus is changing almost daily.”

布伦特原油上涨1.1%，仍维持在每桶107美元附近，逼近每桶110美元，周四收盘价曾创下自2022年7月以来最高水平。卡塔尔表示，Ras Laffan液化天然气设施受损，导致该国17%的出口能力丧失，修复将需要三到五年时间。与此同时，随着针对中东能源基础设施的袭击持续，科威特一家炼油厂也在无人机袭击中遭到打击。

Brent crude oil rose by 1.1%, remaining around $107 per barrel, approaching $110 per barrel, having closed at its highest level since July 2022 on Thursday. Qatar stated that the Ras Laffan LNG facility was damaged, resulting in a loss of 17% of the country’s export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. Meanwhile, as attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continue, a refinery in Kuwait was also targeted in a drone attack.

欧洲天然气价格本周料将上涨约20%。荷兰国际集团分析师表示：“市场开始计入更长期供应中断的可能性。” 作为基准的荷兰TTF近月合约在早盘交易中下跌2.3%，至每兆瓦时60.41欧元，但此前在周四曾触及2022年以来最高水平。

European gas prices are expected to rise by about 20% this week. Analysts at ING stated: “The market is beginning to factor in the possibility of longer-term supply disruptions.” The Dutch TTF near-month contract, as a benchmark, fell 2.3% in early trading to €60.41 per megawatt hour, although it had previously reached its highest level since 2022 on Thursday.

央行警告促使交易员加大收紧押注

Central bank warnings have prompted traders to increase bets on tighter monetary policy.

在这场冲突扰乱能源供应链、推动汽油和航空燃油价格飙升之后，交易员正仔细解读每一条地缘政治相关消息。全球多家央行已就通胀风险发出警告，促使交易员加大对货币政策进一步收紧的押注。

As this conflict disrupts energy supply chains and drives up gasoline and jet fuel prices, traders are carefully interpreting every piece of geopolitical-related news. Central banks around the world have issued warnings about inflation risks, prompting traders to increase bets on further tightening of monetary policy.

巴黎 La Financiere de l’Echiquier 交易主管 David Kruk 表示：“投资者情绪显然已经转向更加看空的仓位布局。不过，市场目前也已经来到一个这样的水平：如果能够找到结束冲突的路径，市场就可能出现强劲反弹。”

David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris, stated: “Investor sentiment has clearly shifted to a more bearish positioning. However, the market has also reached a level where if a path to ending the conflict can be found, there could be a strong rebound.”

美国国债收益率全线上升，其中两年期国债收益率上升6个基点至3.85%。10年期美债收益率下跌0.6个基点，至4.275%；30年期美债收益率则基本持稳于4.856%。Pepperstone分析师Michael Brown表示，市场焦点仍将集中在地缘政治进展上，“而且随着周末临近，市场参与者再次降低风险敞口的可能性很高。”

U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the two-year yield rising 6 basis points to 3.85%. The 10-year yield fell 0.6 basis points to 4.275%; the 30-year yield was relatively stable at 4.856%. Michael Brown, an analyst at Pepperstone, stated that the market focus will remain on geopolitical developments, “and as the weekend approaches, market participants are likely to reduce their risk exposure again.”

英国国债仍然承压，此前英国央行释放出准备加息的信号，推动两年期英国国债收益率在周四升至14个月高点。周五波动更大的是长期限债券，其中10年期英国国债收益率上涨4个基点，至4.88%。

UK government bonds remain under pressure after the Bank of England signaled readiness to raise interest rates, pushing the two-year yield to a 14-month high on Thursday. On Friday, longer-dated bonds showed more volatility, with the 10-year UK yield rising 4 basis points to 4.88%.

美元扭转部分跌势

The dollar reversed some of its previous losses.

美元小幅上涨，扭转了前一日的部分跌势。美元指数上涨0.1%，至99.341，周四曾跌至98.975，为8天低点。德国商业银行分析师Volkmar Baur表示，由于油价前景存在不确定性，“只要冲突持续并且每天都出现新的变化，外汇市场就必须为汇率持续波动做好准备。”

The dollar edged up, reversing some of the previous day’s losses. The dollar index rose by 0.1% to 99.341, after falling to 98.975 on Thursday, a low for the past eight days. Volkmar Baur, an analyst at Commerzbank, stated that due to uncertainties in the oil price outlook, “as long as the conflict continues and new developments emerge daily, the foreign exchange market must be prepared for continued volatility in exchange rates.”

欧洲央行周四维持政策利率不变，但决策者预计将在未来几个月讨论加息问题，因为伊朗战争正推高欧元区通胀。

The European Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, but policymakers expect to discuss interest rate hikes in the coming months as the Iran war is driving up inflation in the Eurozone.

比特币上涨1.1%，至71，250美元，周四曾跌至68，802美元。盛宝银行分析师在报告中指出，这种加密货币此前的下跌，反映出美联储在应对中东战争及高能源价格不确定性时释放出的谨慎基调。他们表示：“对投资者而言，关键在于，加密货币再次表现得像一种对宏观环境高度敏感的资产，其走势受利率预期、美元强弱以及地缘政治发展驱动，而不再只是由加密货币自身因素主导。”

Bitcoin rose by 1.1% to $71,250, having fallen to $68,802 on Thursday. Analysts at Saxo Bank noted in their report that the previous decline in this cryptocurrency reflected the cautious tone released by the Federal Reserve in response to the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East war and high energy prices. They stated, “For investors, the key is that cryptocurrencies once again behave like an asset highly sensitive to the macro environment, driven by interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments, rather than just being dominated by factors intrinsic to the cryptocurrency itself.”

黄金小幅走高，但本周料将下跌逾7%，迈向自疫情暴发以来最差的单周表现。主要受美元走强及利率预期减弱打压。

Gold edged higher, but is expected to decline over 7% this week, heading for its worst weekly performance since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is primarily pressured by a stronger dollar and weakening interest rate expectations.

市场观察人士表示，投资者需求已经减弱，且ETF资金流出持续对黄金构成压力。荷兰国际集团分析师表示：“上行动能已经减弱。一些投资者正在卖出黄金，以筹集现金或对投资组合进行再平衡。”

Market observers indicate that investor demand has weakened, and continued outflows from ETFs are putting pressure on gold. Analysts at ING stated: “Upside momentum has weakened. Some investors are selling gold to raise cash or rebalance their portfolios.”

美银：2月美股创纪录流出695亿美元

Bank of America: Record outflow of $69.5 billion from U.S. stocks in February.

美国银行最新报告称，投资者在2月份正果断地转向美国以外地区股票，标志着区域配置出现明显分化。

According to the latest report from Bank of America, investors decisively shifted towards stocks outside the U.S. in February, marking a clear divergence in regional allocation.

美国银行最新报告称，投资者在2月份正果断地转向美国以外地区股票，标志着区域配置出现明显分化。其中，主动型和被动型基金合计最多流入新兴市场股票，流入金额超过176亿美元；其次是亚太地区，流入资金超过149亿美元。

According to the latest report from Bank of America, investors decisively shifted towards stocks outside the U.S. in February, marking a clear divergence in regional allocation. Among them, a total of over $17.6 billion flowed into emerging market stocks from both active and passive funds; followed by the Asia-Pacific region, which saw inflows exceeding $14.9 billion.

相比之下，美股录最大规模资金流出，基金卖出了695亿美元的股票。

In contrast, U.S. stocks recorded the largest outflow, with funds selling $69.5 billion worth of shares.

按板块划分，买力度最强的是必需消费品板块，超过79亿美元，紧随的原材料板块录超过50亿美元流入，而软件和媒体板块则遭遇大量抛售，分别为177亿和110亿美元。

By sector, the strongest buying pressure was seen in the consumer staples sector, exceeding $7.9 billion, followed by the materials sector with inflows of over $5 billion, while the software and media sectors faced significant sell-offs of $17.7 billion and $11 billion respectively.

报告显示，上月全球最大的长仓股票买入包括沃尔玛、艾伯维、罗氏、阿斯麦，而主要卖出股份包括阿斯利康、微软、苹果、英伟达。

The report showed that the largest long positions bought globally last month included Walmart, AbbVie, Roche, and ASML, while the major sell-offs included AstraZeneca, Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA.

美银表示，长仓基金在全球持有最广泛的股票仍然是台积电，持有比例为92%，其次是ARM、微软、英伟达、腾讯控股。而结合高持有比重和具正面动能的股票继续跑赢大市，这些股份包括博通、台积电、三星电子、美光科技、SK海力士、礼来。

Bank of America stated that the most widely held stock among long positions globally remains TSMC, with a holding ratio of 92%, followed by ARM, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tencent Holdings. Stocks that continue to outperform the market, combining high holding ratios and positive momentum, include Broadcom, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, SK Hynix, and Eli Lilly.

焦点个股

Focus Stocks

光通信板块盘前续涨，Lumentum、Coherent均涨超1%。本届OFC大会释放了一个强烈信号：AI算力需求的爆炸式增长，正倒逼数据中心全面重构其光电网络架构。

The optical communications sector continued to rise in pre-market trading, with Lumentum and Coherent both up over 1%. This year’s OFC conference sent a strong signal: the explosive growth in AI computing power demand is forcing data centers to completely restructure their optoelectronic network architectures.

联邦快递盘前大涨超10%，Q3业绩超预期+上调全年盈利指引。

FedEx surged over 10% in pre-market trading after exceeding Q3 earnings expectations and raising its full-year profit guidance.

超微电脑盘前暴跌超19%，违规走私AI服务器，联合创始人被捕。

Advanced Micro Devices plunged over 19% in pre-market trading after being accused of illegally smuggling AI servers, with its co-founder arrested.

Firefly Aerospace盘前涨超8%，Q4营收激增、亏损收窄。

Firefly Aerospace rose over 8% in pre-market trading after reporting a surge in Q4 revenue and narrowing losses.

Planet Labs盘前大涨超16%，季度业绩、指引均超预期。

Planet Labs surged over 16% in pre-market trading after reporting quarterly results and guidance that exceeded expectations.

小鹏汽车盘前跌逾3%，即将公布财报，中金曾下调盈测。

XPeng Motors fell over 3% in pre-market trading ahead of its earnings report, after CICC had previously lowered its earnings forecast.

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责任编辑：郭明煜

Editor: Guo Mingyu