3.23 Gold Falls 200 Points, Rally at 4480 Short Still Profitable 200 Points

Market Review:

Gold opened last week at 5010.7, with a slight early rally reaching a high of 5045.2 before facing selling pressure. The price consolidated weakly and effectively broke through the key support at 4960, subsequently accelerating downward. On Friday, the intraday low touched 4474.5, with the close consolidating near the lows. The weekly close settled at 4497, forming a large bearish candle with a slightly long upper shadow and solid body, with bearish momentum completely dominating the market.

From a technical perspective, gold prices have forcefully broken through the key support at 4400 from the beginning of the year, quickly probing to a low of 4320 intraday, followed by a rapid counterattack and reestablishing itself above 4400. This volatile spike-down and spike-up movement essentially reflects an intense exchange of long and short positions: bears concentrating on heavy selling while bulls enter at low levels to catch the bottom, forming a short-term rapid contest.

On the daily chart, consecutive bearish declines are visible with Bollinger Bands opening downward and the moving average system diverging bearishly, showing weak characteristics. Near-term support levels have moved down to the 4260, 4150, 4000 gradient defense lines. On the 4-hour chart, MACD shows a continued bearish crossover with green histogram expanding, bearish momentum still releasing. KDJ/RSI is in deep oversold territory but without a clear bullish crossover, with only weak recovery expectations. On the 1-hour chart, MACD shows contracting green histogram with the fast line turning, short-term downward momentum weakening. KDJ shows a bullish crossover in oversold territory with recovery signals appearing, but with limited strength.

Combining the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, both show oscillating recovery and weak pressure as the main theme. The market will not reverse and strengthen immediately. Operationally, follow the main trend, only short rallies on weakness, avoid blind bottom-fishing, and observe the strength of long-short competition.

Daily key resistance levels locked in at: 4480, 4500. Deploy shorts in batches on rebounds under selling pressure, using strict position control and stop loss.

Gold Trading Strategy: Short rallies at 4480-4500 in batches, stop loss at 4540, target 4350-4300 with light positions and strict stop losses.

Disclaimer: The above content is only a personal perspective and idea sharing and does not constitute trading advice.