Политика и рынок совместно стимулируют более быструю ликвидацию мощностей по разведению свиней во втором и третьем кварталах

Источник: Синьхуа Финансы

В 2026 году продолжится усиление государственной политики, что может способствовать ускорению процесса сокращения высокозатратных мощностей. В сочетании с тем, что 2026 год остается годом продолжения высвобождения производственных мощностей, в первой половине года фермеры могут столкнуться с убытками из-за долгосрочного снижения цен на свиней и ростом стоимости кормов. Политика и переизбыток рынка могут совместно стимулировать ускорение сокращения маточного поголовья. На основе прогнозных данных по затратам и прибыли ожидается, что период ускоренного сокращения мощностей в стране — с марта по июнь, а с июля по сентябрь — замедлится.

Усиление политики и возможное сохранение режима сокращения у крупных предприятий

3 марта 2026 года Министерство сельского хозяйства и сельских районов провело специальное совещание с ведущими свиноводческими компаниями. Сообщается, что на совещании было принято решение о дальнейшем снижении поголовья маточного стада до примерно 36,5 миллиона голов, что на 7,8% меньше по сравнению с 39,61 миллиона голов в декабре 2025 года — снижение на 3,11 миллиона голов. Также было предложено ввести ежегодную систему учета производства и осуществлять более точное регулирование деятельности ведущих фермерских предприятий. В будущем крупные свиноводческие компании должны будут подавать планы по ежегодным выбросам и корректировкам маточного стада, что позволит перейти от «мягкого руководства» к «жестким ограничениям» в регулировании мощностей. 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