#创作者冲榜 Gold plunges $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, larger decline may be coming

As the Middle East conflict continues and energy prices remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures re-emerging, forcing major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and adopt a longer-term wait-and-see approach.

Affected by this, gold has recently suffered continuous setbacks. After breaking below the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, market bearish sentiment has further intensified. Multiple analysts warn that if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers more damage, gold may face additional pain in the short term, with risks of a pullback toward the lower end of the $4000 range not ruled out.

Gold price plunges $525, breaks key technical level, silver crashes nearly 16%

As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that sustained rises in energy prices are re-igniting inflation threats, which may force major global central banks to abandon their original easing path and instead adopt a "hold steady and watch as we go" policy stance.

The gold market experienced a significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average slightly below $5000/ounce, the market chart structure has clearly deteriorated. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown decline and subsequent sustained selling have brought the gold market to a critical turning point.

He pointed out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4402 to the March 2 high of $5420 now looks more like a "corrective bounce," or even a typical "dead cat bounce."

This suggests that gold's next phase movement is more likely to turn into a sustained bearish-driven decline lasting weeks. From a weekly performance perspective, gold fell a cumulative $525.56 this week, a decline of 10.47%, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the war began, gold prices have declined more than 14% cumulatively. Recent market data shows that gold prices once fell below $4500, while the year's high reached above $5600.

By contrast, silver's decline is even more severe. Silver prices are set to fall a cumulative 15.67% this week, marking the largest decline since the surge and fall in January this year. Spot silver trading at $67.889/ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East situation and the Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be restored to normal passage, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that as the market awaits further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices may fluctuate in the $4600 to $4700 range in the short term, but simultaneously warns that downside risks are increasing. He pointed out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the war drags on longer, the eventual result could be gold prices declining toward the lower end of the $4000/ounce range. The reason is that in such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve may be forced to re-raise rates due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasized that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will permanently weaken. If damage to energy infrastructure is limited and oil prices can quickly return to pre-war levels, then global central banks' purchasing interest in gold may re-strengthen, pushing gold prices back onto the track of sustained operation above $5000.

Why doesn't gold act like a safe haven amid war?

Despite facing obvious headwinds recently, multiple analysts remain optimistic about gold's medium to long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, stated that the core logic behind investors' gold purchases at the start of the year hasn't actually changed, as the global economy continues to face unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also pointed out that the current market needs to first experience a round of sentiment and position adjustment. In other words, investors need to first "cool down from their infatuation," and only then may they rekindle their enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before having more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold has failed to display traditional safe-haven strength in the war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.

The market is currently trading based on how the core conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, rates, and monetary policy paths, rather than the geopolitical conflict itself.

Central banks adopt full wait-and-see stance, while markets have rapidly withdrawn rate-cut bets!

Over the past week, major global central banks maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to observe how the war will ultimately affect inflation expectations. Haworth pointed out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget projections before summer, policymakers will more clearly see whether the energy shock will substantially impact business decisions and price behavior.

However, the market clearly lacks such patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodities research at Commerzbank, stated that in the United States, not even a single complete rate cut by year-end has been sufficiently priced in. By late February, markets widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.5 times. She pointed out that following the recent Federal Reserve meeting, rate-cut expectations were further weakened, mainly because Federal Reserve Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and clearly stated that if future signs indicate inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be under consideration.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and lift long-term inflation expectations, gold prices are likely to remain under downward pressure.

Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily end, but short-term consolidation confirmation is more needed

Although the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance typically suppresses gold by pushing up bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe long-term opportunities for gold haven't disappeared. Senior market analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and continue tightening policy in a recessionary environment, this could itself constitute a serious policy mistake. He pointed out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation, and central banks can often only slow economic growth by suppressing demand.

Therefore, against a backdrop where the duration and economic impact of the Iran conflict remain highly uncertain, adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy by central banks is actually the most logical course. However, if major central banks ultimately do commit the policy error of "tightening amid recession," gold could still perform well in a longer-term dimension, as investors would then seek hedging tools against economic downturn risks anew.

Brown stated he does not believe gold's bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market needs to first experience a round of sufficient consolidation before having better reason to strengthen confidence in "buying on dips."