обзор сырьевых товаров: нефть Brent выросла, алюминий на LME снизился максимально с 2022 года, золото упало семь дней подряд

Brent crude oil closed higher, as escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf region caused long-term damage to major energy facilities. Industrial metals fell sharply, with aluminum prices experiencing their largest decline since 2022. As the Middle East situation pushes up oil prices and reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in the US in the short term, gold has declined for the seventh consecutive trading day.

Crude Oil: Brent Fluctuates and Closes Higher Amid Escalating Attacks on Middle Eastern Energy Facilities

Brent crude oil ultimately closed higher, with escalating attacks in the Persian Gulf region causing long-term damage to key energy facilities.

On Thursday, oil markets experienced increased volatility, with sharp price swings prompting some speculators to exit.

Brent crude rose by as much as 11%, breaking through $119.13 per barrel, before retracing most of the gains and closing up 1.2% at $108.65, with prices continuing to fall after hours.

Iran launched missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, severely damaging the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant.

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that two facilities, accounting for 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, were damaged, and repairs could take three to five years.

Traders noted that extreme volatility suppressed trading activity, with volume declining.

“Oil was on a rollercoaster again today,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “As signs of de-escalation appeared, prices retreated.”

During US trading hours, investors weighed statements from US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

When asked whether ground troops would be sent to the Middle East, Trump said he would not send troops anywhere; Mnuchin suggested that the Iranian regime might collapse on its own.

“The latest wave of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure underscores the region’s extremely challenging supply outlook,” said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank.

Base Metals: Aluminum Prices Drop Largest Since 2022

Industrial metals declined sharply, with aluminum prices experiencing their largest drop since 2022, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed energy prices higher and heightened global economic risks.

LME copper fell 2%, erasing this year’s gains; aluminum prices dropped 4.4%. The escalation of attacks in the Persian Gulf threatened the long-term security of critical energy infrastructure, driving up European natural gas and Brent crude oil prices.

Jason Ying, commodities strategist at BNP Paribas in Paris, said, “Today’s price movements seem mainly driven by risk aversion and concerns over macroeconomic growth, leading to widespread selling of base and precious metals.”

At the close, LME copper fell 2% to $12,146.5 per ton;

LME aluminum fell 4.4% to $3,252 per ton;

LME nickel declined 1% to $16,984 per ton;

LME zinc dropped 2% to $3,071.5 per ton;

LME tin decreased 3.4% to $43,540 per ton;

LME lead fell 1.4% to $1,887.5 per ton.

Precious Metals: Gold Prices Fall for Seventh Consecutive Day

As Middle East tensions push up oil prices and reduce the likelihood of a US rate cut in the near term, gold has declined for the seventh straight trading day.

Gold briefly fell as much as 6.6% during the session before narrowing losses; this decline may be the longest since 2023. The nearly three-week Iran conflict, soaring oil and natural gas prices, and increased inflation risks have reduced the Federal Reserve and other central banks’ chances of cutting rates. This poses a headwind for non-yielding gold. Silver plunged over 13% at one point before trimming losses.

Bart Melek, head of global commodities strategy at TD Securities, said, “This is driven by the combined effects of interest rates and oil prices. Concerns about slowing growth amid inflation are prompting the Fed and other central banks to tighten policy.”

As the Iran conflict escalates and energy prices soar, global equities and bond markets experienced sell-offs earlier on Thursday. Melek noted that some investors sold gold positions to raise cash.

By 5 p.m. New York time, spot gold was down 3.5% at $4,650.02 per ounce;

Spot silver fell 3.4% to $72.8251 per ounce.