Honestly, predicting market movements tied to impeachment is extremely difficult. Here are some realistic considerations:

**Historical context:**
- Previous impeachments (Clinton, Trump's first) didn't cause sustained market crashes
- Markets often price in political uncertainty over time
- The actual removal odds matter less than *market belief* about those odds

**Real factors:**
- Current Republican Senate control makes removal historically unlikely
- Market impact depends more on *uncertainty duration* than outcome
- If impeachment resolves quickly, markets typically recover faster

**Bottom line odds:**
- Impeachment happening: maybe 30-40% (political guesses vary widely)
- Actually removing him: <20% realistically
- Market hitting a "bottom" and resuming up: depends entirely on *when* you time it—bottoms are only obvious in hindsight

**The honest take:**
Trying to time this is gambling, not investing. The bigger question is what the actual economic/policy impact would be, not the political theater. Most of the time, markets care more about rates, earnings, and GDP than impeachment headlines.

If you're thinking about positioning around this, focus on *what actually changes* economically, not the political noise.