#比特币价格波动 Seeing this 364-day cycle analysis, I have to be honest: this kind of regularity-based prediction sounds comfortable, but it's often the easiest way to fall into a trap.

I was brainwashed by similar "cycle theories" early on. Golden ratios, historical inevitability—it all turned out to be self-comfort. The truth is, markets never repeat perfectly; new variables always mix in—policy, macroeconomic conditions, technological progress. Any one of these can break your "pattern."

This analysis says the bottom might come in October next year at $37500. On the surface, it gives a clear expectation. But here's the problem: if so many people are waiting for this price point, the market might actually react ahead of time or never reach it at all. That's the nature of the game.

My advice is simple: don't treat this as a countdown. Instead of sitting and waiting for that date and price, focus on more practical signals—like on-chain data, institutional movements, policy directions. Real bottoms often appear quietly when nobody dares to look, not on dates everyone has calculated.

To last long in this game, quit the fantasy of "precise prediction." Keep cash reserves, control your risk exposure, and have contingency plans—that's worth more than any cycle theory.