Цена акций Roche резко упала на 5%, клинические испытания препарата для лечения рака молочной железы giredestrant не увенчались успехом

Investing.com - Roche Holding AG’s stock fell more than 5% on Monday after an experimental oral breast cancer drug, giredestrant, failed in a key clinical trial, casting a shadow over Wall Street’s previous expectations that the drug could reach annual sales of billions of Swiss francs.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company’s stock traded at CHF341.20, with a 52-week high of CHF374.90. Previously, its persevERA trial failed to demonstrate a statistically significant progression-free survival benefit in first-line ER-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer patients. Full data will be released at an upcoming medical conference.

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Jefferies rates Roche as “underperform,” with a target price of CHF230, stating that this result “completely destroys” the commercial prospects of giredestrant. The firm forecasts the drug’s global sales peak at CHF1.2 billion, with a risk-adjusted probability of 60%, while VisibleAlpha’s consensus expects CHF5.8 billion, with a probability of 77%.

“Although Roche emphasizes numerical improvements, in a clinical setting, this is unlikely to be clinically meaningful, as incremental benefits must be sufficiently significant to replace entrenched therapies,” said Jefferies analyst.

The trial needs to achieve a hazard ratio of 0.6 to 0.7. The core failure was that giredestrant did not show additional benefits when combined with CDK4/6 inhibitors (the standard treatment for this indication), weakening positive signals from early coopERA, evERA, and lidERA studies.

Jefferies has raised the target price for AstraZeneca from $98 to $120, rating it as a buy, citing structural advantages in its competitor SERD drug, camizestrant.

AstraZeneca’s CAMBRIA-2 study enrolled 5,500 patients, while Roche’s lidERA trial enrolled 4,200 patients; the former allows both groups to use CDK4/6 inhibitors, including patients who have had no more than 12 weeks of prior endocrine therapy, with a planned treatment duration of seven years.

Roche’s lidERA trial excludes CDK4/6 inhibitors, requires no prior endocrine therapy, and lasts five years. Data from CAMBRIA-2 is expected in 2027.

Jefferies predicts that the failure of persevERA will “completely reverse the positive momentum since the end of last year,” and will compress Roche’s P/E multiple from its current 17x.

Roche’s next giredestrant data readout is from the pionERA trial, also expected in 2027. Roche’s market capitalization is CHF276.1 billion. Its 52-week low is CHF231.90.

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