Ethereum Faces $4 Billion Unlock: Stake Withdrawals, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, and Price Predictions (Outlook for September 2025)

This article delves into the reasons behind the recent fall in Ethereum's price, covering the impact of the massive stake unlock in September (4 billion USD), market cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, and a decline in network activity, among other key factors. It provides crypto investors with comprehensive market dynamics, Ethereum price predictions, and long term investment insights.

Key Points: Staking Unlock and Price Pressure

Ethereum is facing enormous supply pressure with approximately $4 billion worth of staked tokens set to be unlocked, as validators exit the queue with up to 910,461 ETH (valued at about $3.91 billion). This massive supply is expected to enter the circulation market in September, posing additional resistance to an already fragile encryption market. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has dropped 4.5% from Tuesday's peak of $4,350, falling to a two-week low of around $4,150, in line with Bitcoin's pullback to $112,000.

Motivation for Staking Exit: Profit Taking and Leverage Strategy Failure

Xu Han, a partner at HashKey Capital, pointed out that the main driving factor behind the record exit queue is the profit-taking from Ethereum staking yields, as the current price approaches the historical high of around $4,900 in 2021. Additionally, the recent surge in Ethereum lending rates on Aave has made the previously popular leveraged staking strategy no longer viable, forcing traders to close their positions and repay loans by unstaking. In contrast, the new staking demand (approximately $1.09 billion) is far lower than the exit demand. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Market Risk Aversion Ahead of the Jackson Hole Meeting Investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, reducing their exposure to risk assets (De-risking). Wintermute's OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis stated that the market expects Fed Chairman Powell to deliver hawkish remarks, providing direction for the September rate cut decision, and this "known unknown" has led to a spread of risk-averse sentiment. Last week's concerning economic data (such as the Producer Price Index PPI) exacerbated this sentiment.

Network Activity Cooling: Number of Addresses and New Users Both Decline

Ethereum chain activity has significantly decreased, consistent with widespread risk-averse sentiment. The number of active addresses interacting with the blockchain has fallen by 28% from a peak of 841,000 on July 30 to nearly 600,000. The network growth metric, which measures new user adoption, also declined by 28% during the same period, to 138,000, indicating a slowdown in adoption momentum.

Market Outlook: Short-term Consolidation and Long-term Bullish Coexist

Arthur Azizov, the founder of B2 Ventures, believes that while waiting for clarity on "Fed policy changes and tech stock performance," the Ethereum base case may oscillate between $3,900 and $4,400. Despite facing a $4 billion unlocking shock, HashKey's Xu Han believes that the market, driven by "strong inflows from institutional ETFs and digital asset treasuries," still has a "robust" ability to absorb this supply shock. Experts remain bullish on Ethereum's year-end price target in the long term, expecting it to reach between $6,000 and $8,000 by the end of the year.

Conclusion

Overall, Ethereum is facing three challenges in the short term: the unlocking of staked assets, macroeconomic uncertainty, and weakened network activity, which may continue to put pressure on the price. However, a strong institutional demand base and long-term positive fundamentals provide support for the market ahead. Investors should closely monitor the guidance from the Jackson Hole meeting and the actual market impact of the unlocking events, exercising caution and seizing long term investment opportunities.