The market expects Iran will not follow through on its threats: Bitcoin stabilizes, oil prices remain flat.

According to Gate News bot, as reported by CoinDesk, just 24 hours ago, social media was flooded with concerns about the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, coupled with rumors of Iran considering closing the Strait of Hormuz. People are worried that this will lead to a significant rise in oil prices, which in turn could cause a fall in the stock market and Crypto Assets.

However, the reality is not so. According to data source TradingView, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic opened with a gap up of only 3%, and then retraced most of the gains.

As of the writing of this article, the price of Brent crude oil was $77 per barrel, a rise of only 1.4% for the day. Oil prices gapped up, reaching a five-month high of $77.79. Similarly, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil also briefly hit a high of $78.58 before retreating to $76.75.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $101,000. Previously, due to concerns over soaring oil prices, the trading price of short-term BTC put options traded on the Deribit platform had fallen below $98,000, and has now risen above $101,000. Earlier, due to concerns over soaring oil prices, the trading price of short-term BTC put options on the Deribit platform was 8%-10% higher in volatility compared to call options. The trading price of futures linked to the S&P 500 index only fell by 0.3%.

Oil prices remained largely stable, indicating that the market expects Iran will not follow through on its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which could undermine the stability of its key allies in Asia.

"The price trend this morning indicates that the market does not believe (at least not at the moment) that crude oil from the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked. Brent crude oil prices briefly surpassed $80 per barrel earlier in the trading session but have since fallen back below $80 per barrel," said analysts from ING in a report to clients on Monday.

ING Group added: "More than 80% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz ultimately flows to Asia, and the impact on that region will be greater than on the United States. Therefore, Iran should act cautiously to avoid provoking relevant countries by disrupting oil transportation."

Energy market expert Anas Alhajji believes that Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz is largely a rhetorical tactic used to meet domestic demands, having employed this tactic at least 15 times since the 1980s. Alhajji also explained the same viewpoint in a post on X, where he reviewed a 2018 post that elaborated on how easy it is to talk about blocking the Strait of Hormuz but difficult to achieve.

"For Iran, blocking the strait means occupying and taking control of the Omani waters through which most ships must pass. This would immediately trigger the defense treaty of the Gulf Cooperation Council: this means war between all countries," the post said, adding that a potential blockade would harm Iran's friends more than its enemies, as the enemies do not import oil from Iran and can bypass the strait through two underutilized pipelines.

All of this means that the surge in oil prices that people are worried about may not happen soon, which could help Bitcoin and other risk assets avoid a sell-off. A significant spike in oil prices would increase the risk of major economies falling into stagflation, which would be the worst outcome for most assets, including Bitcoin.