Tonight's CPI data is about to be released! Rate cut expectations vs. tariff inflation, who will win?

Brothers, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.

The US March CPI data is about to be announced, with market expectations soaring from 2.4% to 3.3%. Take a close look at this number — inflation is about to explode again.

But the story isn't that simple.

On one side, oil prices have plummeted from $141 to $91, and energy inflation pressures are like a deflated ball; on the other side, tariff policies are pushing import prices to the limit, opening another big mouth of inflation.

So the question is: who wins tonight — rate cut expectations or tariff inflation?

First, the conclusion

If tonight’s CPI exceeds expectations, the Fed cutting rates is just a dream.

Not delayed, just a dream.

Think about it — Powell and his team are obsessively watching inflation data. When the data spikes, they become more timid than anyone. Rate cuts? Impossible. They might even continue to shout “rate hikes.”

And what does BTC fear most? Continued tightening of liquidity.

Rate cuts are like a spring drug for BTC, CPI is the Fed’s tightening spell.

Once the data is out tonight, who wins — the spring drug or the tightening spell — will directly determine whether your account doubles or halves.

You think falling oil prices mean inflation has calmed down?

Naive.

Oil dropping from 141 to 91 is a fact. Energy is indeed cooling, filling up a tank is cheaper than before. But the problem is —

Inflation has never been a single variable.

Tariff policies are like a dull knife, slowly cutting. Import prices are rising, and every “Made in XXX” item you buy is getting more expensive. From clothes to electronics, from furniture to parts, everything is going up.

On one side, falling energy prices lighten your load; on the other, rising tariffs add to your burden.

What is this called? It’s a tug of war.

The Fed sits in the middle, caught in a dilemma.

What’s the most brutal scenario?

If tonight’s CPI data just happens to meet expectations — 3.3% —

How will the market move?

I tell you: first up, then down, or first down, then up — but in the end, it’s all down.

Because 3.3% itself isn’t low. It indicates inflation is still high, and rate cuts are still far away.

BlackRock has long warned that the impact of Middle East war on energy prices will be fully reflected in March data. That is to say, this 3.3% might still be a “discounted” figure.

Good data is fake good; bad data is real bad.

That’s the most despairing.

But there’s still a glimmer of hope

Pay attention to a signal: ceasefire.

If the ceasefire signals in the Middle East persist, April data might show a turning point downward.

What does that mean?

Tonight’s data might be terrible, but as long as the war stops, there’s hope for April.

What are we speculating on? Expectations.

If the market prices in “April inflation will fall back” in advance, then tonight’s negative data might be the “last dip.”

Summary in plain language

- Tonight’s high CPI → no rate cut hope → BTC continues to be beaten

- Tonight’s low CPI → rate cut expectations rise → BTC takes off

- But most likely: CPI is neither high nor low → market first confused, then crashes → then waits for ceasefire signals

My advice in one sentence:

Don’t bet on CPI, bet on ceasefire.

Because CPI is past tense, while ceasefire is future tense.

“Fed watches inflation, BTC watches rate cuts, retail investors watch K-lines, smart people watch wars.”

Don’t sleep too deeply tonight; within an hour of the data release, volatility will wake you up as sharply as ten Americanos.