مواقف البنوك المركزية حول الذهب متفاوتة: بعضهم يقلل من حيازاته، والبعض الآخر يشتري بكميات كبيرة

**21st Century Economic News reporter Ye Maipui ** Gold seems to have “cooled off.”

Recently, the central banks of Turkey, Russia, and Poland have all said that they have sold, or are preparing to sell, their gold reserves. In particular, the Turkish central bank has cut back nearly 120 tons in the past two weeks.

Regarding this move by some central banks, most views in the market believe that it has not yet changed the overall pattern of central bank gold buying.

A February central bank gold-buying monthly report for February, released by the World Gold Council on April 2, 2026, shows that in that month, central banks across countries net bought 19 tons of gold, below the 26-ton monthly average reported for 2025, but higher than the 5-ton net purchases in January. Some analyses even say that the recent drop in gold “dug a gold pit,” and now is a good time to buy gold.

Three Countries’ Central Banks Reduce or Plan to Reduce Gold Reserves

To cope with the energy supply shortages triggered by the Middle East conflict and the pressure on the Turkish lira to depreciate, Turkey’s gold reserves have fallen sharply by nearly 120 tons over the past two weeks— the largest two-week decline since records with relevant data began in 2013.

The data released by the Turkish central bank on the 2nd shows that for the week ending March 28, the country’s gold reserves decreased by 69.1 tons. In the past two weeks, the total reduction was 118.4 tons, bringing Turkey’s total gold reserves down to 702.5 tons. Of those, more than half were completed through gold-for-foreign-exchange swap transactions— that is, using gold as collateral to obtain dollar liquidity, with redemption after maturity.

The essence of swap transactions is “swap gold for foreign exchange, then redeem at maturity”— meaning the central bank hands gold to the counterparty in exchange for an equivalent amount of dollars, while signing a forward contract that stipulates that the gold will be bought back in the future at a slightly higher price. It is a form of short-term financing behavior, not a permanent clearance of holdings.

Analysts believe that since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, global energy prices have risen sharply. Turkey’s energy is highly dependent on imports, causing a steep increase in pressure to pay in foreign currency. At the same time, market risk-avoidance sentiment has risen, and the Turkish lira faces depreciation pressure. The Turkish central bank has therefore had to increase its intervention efforts to support the lira’s exchange rate and improve market liquidity.

The Polish central bank also proposed a plan in early March. On March 4, Polish central bank governor Adam Grzeapinski said it intends to raise about $13 billion by selling part of its gold reserves to support defense construction.

Meanwhile, the Russian central bank began selling gold in January this year. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, in January 2026 the Russian central bank sold 9 tons of gold, becoming the largest net seller that month. In February, it continued to net sell 6 tons.

Regarding the recent “selling gold” behavior of central banks in multiple countries, Lin Yan, macro chief analyst at the GLC Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that the recent gold-selling by some central banks is more “tactical” rather than “strategic.”

The core reasons are as follows three aspects.

First, “follow-the-trend” institutional behavior. Essentially, central banks also play the role of “institutional investors” in gold. Taking the Turkish central bank as an example: when gold prices are in a period of consolidation and range-bound movement, the Turkish central bank often sells gold; conversely, when gold prices accelerate upward, the Turkish central bank also accelerates buying gold.

Second, the fiscal deficit rises rapidly in the short term, and central banks “passively” sell gold to meet liquidity spending. For example, after Turkey’s fiscal deficit rose rapidly, the central bank may have, “out of necessity,” sold gold to obtain dollars; similarly, after Russia’s fiscal deficit rose rapidly in 2025, the Russian central bank also began to “passively” reduce its gold holdings to obtain financial support for Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Third, the “rise and fall in opposite directions” between central bank gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves. Taking the Turkish central bank as an example: the transmission path of the seesaw effect between “foreign exchange reserves” and “gold reserves”— oil price supply shock → oil price rise → current account imbalance worsens → lira depreciates faster → the central bank sells gold to increase foreign reserves. With the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, due to concerns that trade deficit will accelerate and expand leading to the lira depreciating too quickly, the Turkish central bank sold nearly 60 tons of gold in March.

Many Institutions Still See Gold as Bullish for This Year’s Outlook

Actually, over the past four years, central banks in various countries have been key buyers in the gold market. Data from the World Gold Council shows that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks’ average annual gold buying continuously exceeded 1000 tons for three consecutive years— about twice the average annual gold buying amount of the previous decade. Even in 2025, when gold prices hit new highs repeatedly, global central bank gold buying still reached 863 tons, accounting for about 17.3% of global gold demand in that year.

Although some central banks have recently reduced holdings, they have not yet changed the overall gold-buying pattern. The February central bank gold-buying monthly report released by the World Gold Council on April 2, 2026 shows that in that month, central banks across countries net bought 19 tons of gold, below the monthly average of 26 tons reported for 2025, and increased compared with the 5 tons of net purchases in January.

In addition, some central banks’ pace of gold buying has not stopped. Among them, the Czech Republic has maintained net buying for 36 consecutive months. China has also added holdings for 16 consecutive months: from November 2024 to February 2026, it accumulated gold purchases of 44 tons. Uzbekistan has maintained net buying for 5 consecutive months as well.

Research reports released recently by multiple institutions show that institutions still mainly take a bullish stance on gold. UBS strategist Joni Tevis expects that although the gold price has been volatile recently, gold prices this year will set new highs, and views recent pullbacks as buying opportunities. UBS expects the gold average price in 2026 to be $5000 per ounce; in 2027 and 2028, respectively, $4800 and $4250.

Goldman Sachs Group is a steadfast supporter of gold bulls. On March 30, 2026, Goldman Sachs published a commodity research report analyzing the reasons for the significant pullback in gold prices since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and reaffirmed its long-term bullish expectation for gold prices— that gold prices will reach $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026.

The three factors supporting this forecast include: extremely low speculative positioning (currently at the 39th percentile). If it normalizes, it would bring upward momentum of about $195 per ounce; the economists’ expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points in 2026 will contribute about $120 per ounce; and continued support from central bank demand, with expected average monthly purchases to rebound to about 60 tons, which would become a core pillar for medium-term prices.

The report also points out that risks are distributed in both directions but with some tilt. The main short-term downside risk is that if the Strait of Hormuz interruption continues and triggers further adjustments in the stock market, it could lead to the liquidation of remaining macro hedging positions, and in the most unfavorable scenario, gold prices might fall to $3800 per ounce. However, the medium-to-long-term upside risk is more pronounced: if current geopolitical events accelerate the private sector’s diversified allocation to gold and weaken market confidence in the sustainability of Western fiscal policies, gold prices may rise further above the baseline forecast, with a potential high to approach $6100 per ounce.

A quarterly report on global economic outlook released recently by the Barclays research team says that since the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, the entire increase in gold since 2026 has been unwound, which constitutes a relatively reasonable entry timing.

Barclays said that the trend of central bank buying gold, which has significantly increased since 2022, is unlikely to fade away. The U.S. Federal Reserve has also failed to achieve its 2% inflation target for four consecutive years, and the likelihood of rate hikes in 2026 is low. Risks from geopolitical frictions, ongoing central bank buying activities, inflation upside driven by oil price shocks, and the impact of conflicts on fiscal conditions will all support gold.