مسؤول كبير في البنك المركزي الأوروبي يقول إن الصدمات المستمرة في قطاع الطاقة ستتطلب تشديد الموقف السياسي

Xuán tǒng Finance APP News—— A member of the ECB Governing Council, Greece’s central bank governor Yannis Stournaras, on Monday (April 6) delivered an important speech, clearly stating that if the duration of the energy shock related to the Middle East is long enough, and it further transmits to medium-term inflation expectations and wage levels, the ECB will have no choice but to consider taking a more hawkish monetary policy stance.

This statement highlights the potential severe impact of the Middle East conflict on the eurozone economy, and adds even more uncertainty to the direction of the ECB’s monetary policy in 2026.

Energy shocks lasting longer may trigger a shift in monetary policy

Stournaras said at the annual shareholders’ meeting of the Bank of Greece that the ECB’s monetary policy in 2026 faces greater uncertainty, so it needs to maintain a high degree of flexibility.

He said: “In this environment, the ECB Governing Council will assess whether the rise in energy prices can transmit, through expectations, changes in wages, and the price-setting mechanism, into broad and persistent inflation risks.”

He further explained: “If the pressure on energy costs turns out to be temporary, the impact from this shock can be ignored. But if the energy shock is stronger and persistent, and affects medium-term inflation expectations and wage changes, then it is expected that a more hawkish monetary policy stance will be needed.”

He added that the ECB expects to continue to adhere to a data-dependent approach and decision-making on a meeting-by-meeting basis, while also being prepared to adjust its policy stance when appropriate.

The Middle East conflict: a dual blow to economic growth and inflation

Stournaras emphasized that the recent military escalation in the Middle East is causing serious disruptions to energy markets and global supply chains, and has adverse impacts on both economic growth and inflation. He said: “If the crisis continues or spreads throughout the region, these effects may further worsen, and against this backdrop, the risk balance facing the global and eurozone economies has deteriorated significantly.”

Regarding the eurozone’s overall economic outlook, he said that, affected by Middle East hostilities, rising uncertainty, and disruptions in energy markets, in 2026, eurozone economic growth is expected to slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9%. These factors are significantly increasing the risk of stagflation—a complex situation in which economic growth slows while inflation pressures coexist.

Greece’s economy faces external pressure but remains resilient

On the domestic side of Greece, Stournaras said that Greece’s inflation slowdown is expected to be hindered in 2026 by new external cost pressures brought by international energy markets. Even if the core inflation rate will slow to 3.0%, the overall inflation rate is still expected to rise to 3.1%.

However, he remains relatively optimistic about Greece’s economic growth. He said that although the external environment is weak, the Greek economy has shown stronger resilience, and it is expected that in 2026 Greece’s economy will grow by 1.9%, with the growth rate still exceeding the overall level of the eurozone.

Fiscal policy must be coordinated carefully with monetary policy

Stournaras also specifically mentioned the impact of fiscal policy on the ECB’s response measures. He said that targeted, temporary measures can effectively buffer the impact of energy shocks, but if broad and permanent fiscal measures are adopted, they may increase total demand and make monetary policy regulation more complex.

2025 review of monetary policy and outlook for the future

When reviewing 2025 monetary policy, Stournaras said that the eurozone inflation rate has fallen to a level consistent with the ECB’s medium-term target. Against this backdrop, the monetary policy of the euro system in 2025 gradually became less restrictive. He pointed out that the rate-cutting process that began in June 2024 continued into the first half of 2025, and by June 2025 the cumulative rate cuts reached 200 basis points. Since July 2025, the ECB Governing Council has kept the key policy interest rates unchanged at 2%.

Overall, Stournaras’s remarks send a clear signal: amid the backdrop of the Middle East war pushing up energy prices, the ECB is closely monitoring the risk of second-round transmission of inflation. If the energy shock evolves from a short-term disturbance into a long-term pressure, the eurozone’s monetary policy may shift from the current relatively accommodative stance toward a more hawkish direction. This statement not only reflects the ECB’s vigilance regarding the risk of stagflation, but also serves as a warning bell to global market investors.

In the future, the dual challenge of slowing eurozone economic growth and potential inflation pressure will test the ECB’s policy flexibility and decision-making wisdom. The international community needs to continue to pay attention to developments in the Middle East situation and their far-reaching impact on global economic and financial stability.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

【تنبيه بشأن المخاطر】 وفقًا للوائح ذات الصلة بإدارة النقد الأجنبي، يجب إجراء شراء وبيع النقد الأجنبي في أماكن التداول التي تحددها الدولة مثل البنوك. شراء وبيع النقد الأجنبي من تلقاء نفسك، أو إجراء عمليات تداول بصورة غير مباشرة، أو القيام بشراء وبيع غير مشروع للنقد الأجنبي، أو تقديم عمليات تداول النقد الأجنبي بشكل غير قانوني بمبالغ كبيرة، سيتم معاقبتك إداريًا وفقًا للوائح من جانب سلطات إدارة النقد الأجنبي؛ وفي حال تشكيل جريمة، سيتم ملاحقة المسؤولية الجنائية وفقًا للقانون.

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