شهدت شنغهاي في مارس بيع 31k وحدة من العقارات المستعملة، وارتفعت مبيعات العقارات الجديدة بنسبة 101.9% على أساس شهري.

Caixin News April 1 report (Reporter Wang Haichun) The sales volume of second-hand apartments in Shanghai for March has broken through the threshold of 30k units.

According to data disclosed today by Lianjia in Shanghai, in March this year the citywide sales volume of second-hand apartments reached 31k units. It not only increased by 6% year-on-year compared with March last year, but also surged by 37% versus this year’s January.

Zhang Bo, head of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that based on data monitored on his platform, “30 days after the implementation of the ‘Shanghai Seven Articles’ policy,” the average daily sales of second-hand apartments in Shanghai were 961 units, which is a significant increase of 22.9% compared with after the 2024 policy (the previous round of policy). The policy impulse intensity has been notably strengthened, and the persistence of market heat has also far exceeded the period before, with weekly sales consistently staying at a high level.

Zhang Bo said, “In Shanghai, among the areas where improvement-type demand is more concentrated—such as Zhangjiang, Jiading New Town, and some inner-ring inner-city segments—the rise in heat is quite evident. These segments rebound quickly, mainly driven by policy easing, release of improvement demand, scarcity of core assets, and market expectation repair. Capital and market heat continue to concentrate toward core cities.”

Not only in transaction volume, but also in the price end, the Shanghai second-hand apartment market has shown positive signals of stabilizing and rebounding. According to Lianjia data, in March the second-hand apartment price index rose 1% month-on-month. Meanwhile, as a leading indicator, the number of viewings increased by 28% compared with January, providing strong support for subsequent transaction activity.

“As transaction volume stabilizes, landlords’ asking prices become more firm, and the room for negotiation shrinks significantly. Taking Shanghai as an example, the negotiation room for second-hand apartments has narrowed from the previous 5%–8% to 2%–3%, and in some listings in core areas there has even been a small increase in asking prices,” Zhang Bo said.

In Li Gen’s view, head of the Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, the “early spring season” in Shanghai’s second-hand apartment market in March is full of substance, and the transaction data itself confirms a strong return of market confidence.

“A series of data fully shows that the ‘Shanghai Seven Articles’ new policy’s precise measures have played a promoting role. The real-estate new policy introduced by Shanghai in February, by leveraging multiple dimensions such as optimizing purchase restrictions and reducing transaction costs, effectively unblocked the replacement chain and released rigid and improvement-type housing demand. As the policy continues to take effect, it injects liquidity into the market, helping the Shanghai second-hand apartment market to steadily move into a benign cycle of recovery amid a simultaneous rise in both volume and price,” Li Gen said.

In addition to the second-hand market, the warmth in Shanghai’s new housing market has also shown signs of a rebound.

According to data monitored by the China Index Academy (Cinda), in March this year the contracted floor area of commodity housing in Shanghai (excluding affordable housing) was 30k square meters, up 88.7% month-on-month from February. The number of units sold was 2,270, up 101.9% month-on-month. Looking cumulatively, from January to March this year, the contracted floor area of commodity housing in Shanghai (excluding affordable housing) was 31k square meters, and the number of units sold was 5,616.

At the policy level, since February this year, favorable real-estate policies have been released intensively. In early February, pilot programs for acquiring second-hand housing to be used for affordable rental housing effectively stabilized market expectations; on February 25, the real-estate “Shanghai Seven Articles” were released, reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing provident fund mortgage lending, and improving property tax policies—lowering purchase barriers and releasing reasonable housing demand across multiple dimensions.

Cheng Yu, executive vice general manager of the Shanghai business at China Index Academy, believes that judging from Shanghai’s market performance in March, the policies have preliminarily activated market demand. The second-hand market rebounded first, and new home transactions also rose significantly. If the current market conditions can continue, Shanghai is expected to maintain a high level of activity in the “early spring” market.

“Shanghai’s ‘early spring’ this year is relatively full of substance, but the ‘early spring’ this year is more structural—second-hand homes are stronger than new homes, not a broad-based, across-the-board rise. And from a national perspective, it may be that first-tier and strong second-tier core areas build a base and stabilize first, while third- and fourth-tier cities still work through a bottoming-out phase with a differentiated pattern,” Zhang Bo said. “The current situation is not merely a short-term policy pulse. It is a signal that core cities are building a base and stabilizing, but the national market has not yet turned around across the board. Overall, the market has formed a pattern where second-hand apartments in core cities lead. The new housing market is expected to further benefit next by leveraging the unblocking of the replacement chain between second-hand and new homes to enter an improvement cycle.”

Cheng Yu emphasized that what needs attention is that market stabilization will still be a gradual process, and its sustainability depends on a substantive repair of residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations. For real-estate developers, against the backdrop of ongoing deepening structural differentiation, they need to focus on prime locations and uphold product-orientation, developing truly “good housing” that matches market demand—in order to take the initiative in the next market cycle.