金大川 3.6 下午 黄金分析

tonight 9:30 non-farm data will be released, combined with the impact of the US-Iran situation, gold bulls and bears enter a critical window. Although the war has not stopped, the short-term risk aversion sentiment has cooled down, and after gold faces pressure and pulls back, it remains in a narrow range; after the Strait of Hormuz blockade, gold did not rise but fell, mainly because the market worries that rising oil prices will boost inflation and drag down the economy, thereby reducing the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to a correction in gold. This non-farm data is particularly crucial; good data will further suppress rate cut expectations and be bearish for gold, while weak data will boost rate cut expectations and promote gold to rise.

Gold rebound reached yesterday's decline wave 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level, coinciding with 5144, forming a strong resistance; after a sharp decline, the double top resistance is near 5200. Only by stabilizing above this level can the bulls start a new round of upward movement. Below, focus on the support levels of 5080 and 5060.

This afternoon's outlook remains bullish, mainly focusing on buying on dips, not blindly chasing highs.

In terms of operation, buy on dips at support levels of 5070-5080, with defense below 5060. The initial target is 5130, then 5150.

Risk reminder: Investment involves risks, enter the market cautiously. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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