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Today's crypto market continued its recent volatility, with the price of Bitcoin fluctuating repeatedly around 84,500, and mainstream currencies such as Ethereum under pressure simultaneously. Despite the short-lived rebound in the market, investor sentiment remains cautious due to a combination of multiple bearish factors. The following is an analysis of the current trend from three aspects: policy, technology and market sentiment.
1. Tariff policy disrupts risk appetite, and macro uncertainty dominates the market
Trump's recent tariff policy has become a core disruptor in the market. Despite its announcement to suspend 90-day reciprocal tariffs on some goods, high tariffs on Chinese goods and the risk of a potential escalation of the trade war continue to weigh on global risk appetite. The total market capitalization of the current crypto market (excluding Bitcoin) has shrunk by 41% from its December 2024 high, the scale of venture capital is down 50%-60% from the peak of 2021-2022, and the contraction of liquidity has exacerbated market vulnerabilities.
2. Technical breakdown and weak on-chain data, if Bitcoin cannot break through the $84,000-$86,000 resistance range, the short-term rally may be unsustainable. At the same time, on-chain indicators such as declining network activity and shrinking stablecoin liquidity (such as USDT outflows) further weaken market momentum.
3. Some institutions are defensive about short-term trends, and the market is promising in the second half of the year. Tariff exclusions have eased cost pressures in the tech sector and indirectly benefited crypto infrastructure (such as mining rig supply chains), and traders are still looking forward to a return to $90,000.
In the short term, the market needs to pay close attention to the Fed's monetary policy moves (May FOMC meeting) and further adjustments to Trump's tariff policy. In the long term, institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank are still optimistic about the incremental funds brought by the stablecoin regulatory bill, injecting new liquidity into the market. Although the risk of a "crypto winter" looms, the improvement of the systemic regulatory framework and the potential return of institutional funds may lay the groundwork for the recovery in the second half of the year.
Recently, I asked a friend for two paintings, and he didn't take a penny from me, and he said that he would only give it to the person who approved it in his heart, so that everyone can enjoy it. I love calligraphy and painting