Bitcoin enterprise investment new opportunities! Japan Metaplanet investment full analysis

The Japanese version of MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, has recently experienced significant fluctuations in its stock price. After transforming into a Bitcoin reserve strategy company, it has successfully attracted the attention of investors, with its stock price increasing nearly sevenfold within a year. This article will introduce Metaplanet's business model and provide several methods for evaluating Metaplanet's stock price for readers' reference.

Metaplanet, a company transforming into a Bitcoin reserve strategy firm by hospitality industry operators.

Metaplanet (3350.T) is a company that originated from the Hotel Royal Oak established in 1999, and it was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in 2004. Among its numerous ventures, it also includes a Web3 consulting business. However, the company has not performed well in terms of profitability in recent years, and its stock price has been quite sluggish.

Metaplanet announced in April 2024 that it would emulate MicroStrategy's strategy by launching a Bitcoin investment strategy, utilizing various financial instruments to support this goal, including the issuance of bonds and stocks. It has currently purchased 7,800 Bitcoins, making it the publicly listed company with the most Bitcoins in Asia. This strategy has garnered significant attention in the Japanese market and has also been included in several global and local ETFs in Japan.

The hotel operated by Metaplanet is undergoing renovations and will be renamed "Bitcoin Hotel." The hotel will feature a Bitcoin gallery, an art museum, and shared workspaces, providing a good communication environment specifically for the crypto community.

(Strategy leads the trend, a detailed article explaining the Bitcoin reserve strategy company investment guide )

Metaplanet's Bitcoin strategy: Continuous buying + options income

Metaplanet has demonstrated a long-term Bitcoin strategy similar to that of the American Strategy ( originally named MicroStrategy ) through a series of stock issuance, bond issuance, and Bitcoin purchase plans.

In addition to directly buying Bitcoin, Metaplanet engages in Bitcoin options trading with Singapore's digital asset trading firm QCP Capital, collecting premiums by selling options and occasionally using roll-up trades to increase the strike price and boost Bitcoin premium income. Metaplanet refers to this as "target buying," emphasizing it as another way to acquire Bitcoin.

In its latest financial report, revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached 877 million yen, with 88% coming from Bitcoin options trading.

(Metaplanet increases Bitcoin earnings through options roll-up trading)

How to assess the stock price of Metaplanet?

After Metaplanet adopted a Bitcoin investment strategy, its stock price soared significantly. How should investors evaluate its stock price? The author provides the following three evaluation indicators:

P/B ratio

Traditional finance uses the Price-Book Ratio (, PB), to evaluate the high or low stock price of a company. The P/B ratio is the ratio of the stock price to the net asset value per share, where net asset value represents the actual value or liquidation value of the company. If we do not consider other assets of the company and simply use the value of Bitcoin to represent the liquidation value of the company, we can also derive a P/B ratio.

P/B ratio = Stock price / Bitcoin value per share

With a Friday closing price of 816 yen, the USD/JPY exchange rate is 142.6, and the Bitcoin price is 108K, its P/B ratio is 5.09.

mNAV

Another algorithm, mNAV also has a similar meaning, like the official website of Strategy which uses this algorithm.

mNAV=Enterprise Value÷Bitcoin NAV

Enterprise Value: Market Capitalization + Total Debt ( includes Convertible Debt and Preferred Stock )

Bitcoin NAV: The market value of its held Bitcoin

NAV premium

The website Strategy Tracker, which specializes in analyzing Bitcoin reserve strategy companies, also features various data and indicators at the top of the homepage. It also calculates an indicator similar to mNAV, called NAV Premium, although the algorithm is slightly different.

NAV premium=Market Cap ( stock market value ) ÷Bitcoin NAV ( value of Bitcoin held )

NAV premium excludes convertible bonds and preferred shares. However, it is divided into NAV Premium (Basic) and NAV Premium (Diluted), one is calculated using the existing number of shares outstanding, and one is included in the shares converted later. The author believes that you must watch NAV Premium (Diluted) to know the dilution of your shareholding. Unfortunately, its statistical chart provides historical data for NAV Premium (Basic), which currently stands at 4.055, while NAV Premium (Diluted) is currently at 5.125.

These indicators are similar to the concept of the traditional stock P/B ratio; the higher the number, the more expensive the company's stock price is relative to others.

Is the current stock price of Metaplanet overvalued?

Since the launch of the Bitcoin investment strategy in April 2024, Metaplanet has adopted various financial instruments to support this goal, planning to accumulate 10,000 Bitcoins by the end of this year and 21,000 Bitcoins by 2026.

Metaplanet has established a clear financial plan, including future stock subscription rights, totaling 21 million shares in 5 batches. Benefiting from Japan's tax system and the advantages of facilitating purchases for retail and institutional investors, its NAV premium has remained high over the long term. As seen in the chart above, its NAV premium once reached as high as 21 times, with a minimum level close to 2 times.

So how do you determine if Metaplanet's share price is overvalued? At present, there are nearly 100 Bitcoin reserve strategy companies on the market, in addition to the ancestor micro strategy strategy, the author feels that the most stable and most confident to make long-term investments is Metaplanet! Because it has a clear financial plan and actively and systematically develops towards the goal, investors can use the numbers to analyze its stock price as a judgment on entering and exiting the market.

The P/B ratio that I personally use is actually similar to the NAV premium, so I will cross-reference my calculated figures with historical data of the NAV premium to identify the relative highs and lows of the stock price for investment.

Based on Friday's closing price of 816 yen, the USD/JPY exchange rate of 142.6, and the Bitcoin price of 108K, the current P/B ratio is 5.09. If a total of 10,000 bitcoins are bought at the end of the year, the equity is diluted ( a total of 21 million shares will be issued this year ) and its share price should reach 1,003 yen under the same P/B ratio ( the light orange ) below.

In the current situation, if the P/B ratio drops to 4, the stock price should fall to 640. At the end of the year, if investor optimism rises, its share price has the opportunity to reach 1,180 (P/B ratio of 6) and 1,380 (P/B ratio of 7) under the same conditions. In this way, you can adjust and evaluate your entry and exit points at any time.

Stocks like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, which are considered Bitcoin proxies, are also viewed as leveraged investment tools for Bitcoin. Naturally, when Bitcoin pumps, the P/B ratio tends to rise, and when Bitcoin declines, the P/B ratio will also decrease accordingly. Therefore, investment strategies can be adjusted in accordance with the fluctuations of Bitcoin.

Metaplanet has become a new target for arbitrage, please DYOR.

Metaplanet has recently experienced significant price fluctuations. Not only is it ranked first in terms of volatility, but it also has the highest short-selling ratio among companies. At the same time, Metaplanet, which is listed in both Japan and the United States, has become a new target for arbitrageurs. It offers a new option for arbitrage alongside MicroStrategy, which can utilize Bitcoin and stock price fluctuations, by leveraging its multiple listed shares.

(Metaplanet becomes a new target for arbitrage, with stock prices hitting the upper limit for two consecutive days. What happened?)

As can be seen, Metaplanet has not only become the listed company with the most Bitcoin in Asia, but it has also gained significant attention in the financial market. As for whether such highly volatile stocks are suitable for investment, it ultimately depends on each individual's risk profile. This article is merely the author's personal opinion and not investment advice; please be sure to DYOR.

This article Bitcoin enterprise investment new opportunities! Japan Metaplanet investment analysis first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.