Gate Research Institute: March 2025 Web3 Industry Policy and Macro Report

Introduction

This report summarizes the policy dynamics and macro event overview of the Web3 industry in March 2025. The report mainly focuses on numerous important events in the global economy and crypto market, covering various aspects such as economic data releases, policy adjustments, and industry dynamics. From the changes in the ADP employment numbers in the United States, to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the regulatory adjustments in the cryptocurrency sector, these events have far-reaching impacts on market participants and policymakers. This article will outline and analyze these key events to help readers better understand the current economic situation and potential future developments.

Summary

• On March 3, Trump announced the promotion of establishing a U.S. crypto reserve, incorporating BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA as core assets of the reserve.
• On March 5th, USDC became the first approved US dollar stablecoin in Japan.
• On March 5, the U.S. ADP employment numbers for February unexpectedly fell to 77,000, below expectations.
• On March 10, the Utah Senate passed the Bitcoin bill, and the reserve investment clause was removed.
• On March 12, the U.S. February seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate recorded 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021.
• On March 14, the U.S. March Michigan Consumer Expectations were far below expectations, and the 5-10 year inflation expectations reached a new high since 1993.
• On March 19, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
• On March 24, the IMF clearly defined the classification of crypto assets, listing Bitcoin under the capital account.
• On March 27, Wyoming plans to launch the stablecoin WYST token in July.

Timeline

Figure 1: Cryptocurrency Policy Timeline

Key Events of Focus

March 3 - Trump announces the push to establish a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, incorporating BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA as core assets of the reserve.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that his executive order on digital assets will promote the establishment of a strategic reserve for cryptocurrency in the U.S., which will include XRP, SOL, and ADA, and stated that BTC and ETH will also become core assets of this reserve. He criticized the Biden administration's crackdown on the crypto industry and pledged to make the U.S. a global cryptocurrency hub. In response to this news, market sentiment quickly heated up, with SOL rising 20.1% within 24 hours, breaking 170 USDT, XRP increasing by 31.5% to surpass 2.8 USDT, and ADA climbing 68% to exceed 1.1 USDT.

Trump's statement indicates that cryptocurrency has become an important component of the political agenda in the United States, and his policy stance may directly affect the market. His support could further promote the easing of regulations in the crypto industry and attract more capital inflow. However, the proposal still lacks specific implementation details, and the market is driven by sentiment in the short term, while the long-term impact remains to be seen. [1]

March 5 - USDC becomes the first approved dollar stablecoin in Japan.

Japan's financial giant SBI Holdings' virtual currency exchange, SBI VC Trade, has obtained an electronic payment provider license from the Financial Services Agency of Japan (JFSA) under the new payment framework, becoming the first institution in Japan to receive this license. SBI Holdings and Circle signed a cooperation agreement at the end of 2023 to launch Circle's USDC stablecoin in Japan. With the new registration, SBI VC Trade plans to launch a beta version of its USDC-related services on March 12.

This event indicates that the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies is gradually being recognized within the traditional financial system. For Circle, this is a significant event for entering the Japanese market, which is expected to significantly boost the adoption and influence of USDC in Asia. For the Japanese fintech ecosystem, this also marks a more open and inclusive regulatory attitude towards crypto technology.

March 5 - The U.S. ADP employment number unexpectedly dropped to 77,000 in February, below expectations.

ADP Research released data showing that the U.S. ADP employment numbers unexpectedly fell to 77,000 in February, compared to the expected value of 140,000 and the previous value of 183,000. The slowdown in growth may be due to policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending, leading to layoffs or hiring slowdowns last month. Both the ADP data and the recent rise in unemployment claims indicate that the U.S. labor market is gradually cooling down. Layoffs by businesses such as federal contractors have further exacerbated this trend. With economic prospects filled with uncertainty, companies' willingness to hire has weakened, and the labor market faces more challenges.

The monthly survey from the University of Michigan shows that consumers are increasingly worried about rising unemployment rates in the coming year. The decline in consumer confidence may further suppress consumer spending, thereby increasing the risk of an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signs of deterioration in the labor market, trying to find a balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation. Weak employment data undoubtedly complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

March 10 – The Utah Senate passes the Bitcoin bill, removing the reserve investment clause

The Utah State Senate recently passed the HB230 bill - the "Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendment" - with a voting result of 19 in favor, 7 opposed, and 3 abstentions. One of the original highlights of the bill was to allow the state treasury to invest up to 5% of its funds in digital assets with a market value exceeding $500 billion, with Bitcoin being the only qualifying asset, potentially making Utah the first state in the U.S. to hold Bitcoin reserves. However, during the legislative process, this forward-looking provision was removed, and the House also accepted the amended version with a vote of 52 in favor, 19 opposed, and 4 abstentions. The current version mainly focuses on legally safeguarding the fundamental rights of Utah residents in the cryptocurrency space, such as custody, mining, node operation, and staking activities.

This amendment reflects the balance the state legislature seeks between promoting innovation in the digital economy and managing risks prudently. While the original Bitcoin investment provisions were groundbreaking, their removal indicates decision-makers' concerns about the risks of direct investment in highly volatile assets. Meanwhile, by clearly protecting residents' rights, the bill still provides a solid legal foundation for the development of the local crypto industry and serves as a reference for other regions on how to find a balance between innovation and risk control.

March 12 - The U.S. Core CPI year-on-year for February, not seasonally adjusted, recorded at 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021.

U.S. inflation data for February came in lower than expected across the board, sending an important signal for the global economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-seasonally adjusted core CPI recorded an annual rate of 3.1% in February, which was not only lower than the market expectation of 3.2%, but also hit a new three-year low since April 2021. The seasonally adjusted core CPI grew by only 0.2% m/m, a significant slowdown from the previous value of 0.4%, and the two key indicators cooled in tandem, marking a breakthrough in inflation control in the world's largest economy. In the short term, the easing of liquidity, driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts, will support prices; In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual pace of the Fed's policy implementation and the evolution of the regulatory framework; In the long run, the position of cryptocurrencies as a carrier of the anti-inflation narrative will continue to strengthen as the global monetary system is reconstructed. 【5】

March 14 - US March Michigan consumer expectations fell far below expectations, with 5-10 year inflation expectations reaching the highest level since 1993.

On March 14, the University of Michigan released the preliminary March consumer confidence survey, which showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped from 67.8 to 57.9, marking a decline for the third consecutive month. The one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.9%, a significant increase from February's 4.3%, while the 5-10 year inflation expectation reached its highest level since 1993. Consumers may be increasingly concerned about rising prices and economic stability, especially in the context of Trump's tariff policies and market volatility.

The decline in consumer confidence and the rise in inflation expectations have had a multifaceted impact on the market. The continuous drop in consumer confidence may lead to a reduction in future consumer spending, thereby affecting economic growth. On the other hand, the increase in inflation expectations may create new anticipations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with investors worried that high inflation could prompt the Fed to adopt a tighter policy. However, on that day, driven by the market's response to the U.S. government's successful avoidance of a shutdown and the lack of further action on Trump's tariff policy, U.S. stocks experienced a strong rebound, and the cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin rising by 3.53%. Yet, this rebound may just be a short-term phenomenon; in the long run, Trump's tariff policy has triggered uncertainty in the market, significantly impacting investor sentiment. The market is concerned that these measures will disrupt global supply chains, increase production costs, thereby exacerbating inflation pressures, and potentially suppress global economic growth.

March 19 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

On March 19, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a decision that aligns with market expectations. The Fed stated that it still plans to make two rate cuts in 2025, but has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% (down from 2.1%) and expects inflation to approach 3% (above the 2% target). The Fed warned that the tariff policies of the Trump administration could exacerbate economic uncertainty and lead to increased inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the Fed believes that the adjustments in economic growth and inflation expectations somewhat offset each other, allowing it to maintain its rate cut forecast. In this context, the dollar market reacted moderately, while most cryptocurrency assets experienced a rebound, reflecting a positive interpretation of the Fed's decision by the market.

March 24 - The IMF clearly defines the classification of crypto assets, listing Bitcoin under the capital account.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has introduced the classification principles for digital assets in the latest version of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM7), categorizing Bitcoin, stablecoins, Ethereum, Solana, etc., based on their liability and substitutability, and incorporating them into the official statistical framework. Among them, tokens like Bitcoin that are not backed by liabilities are classified as non-productive non-financial assets and included in the capital account, while stablecoins, due to their redemption obligations, may be considered financial instruments. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a key pillar of the global economic system, responsible for overseeing the stability of the international monetary system, promoting global trade, and providing economic policy advice. Its published Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM) serves as the authoritative guide for countries compiling balance of payments statistics, widely influencing the operational norms of central banks, statistical agencies, and financial markets.

The IMF updates BPM7 to better monitor international transactions of digital assets, enhance global financial stability analysis capabilities, and improve policy recommendations; national statistical agencies need to adjust data collection methods, such as including Bitcoin in the capital account or treating mining services as exports, which may lead to more resources entering the blockchain market and training related talents; for the digital asset industry, this enhances legitimacy and attracts investment, but the IMF's classification of digital assets (e.g., Bitcoin as capital account assets, stablecoins as financial instruments, ETH and SOL as equity-like, and mining services as exports) may impact regulation, taxation, and cross-border investment, while also potentially promoting the development of related industries in various countries.

March 27 - Wyoming plans to launch the stablecoin WYST token in July.

Wyoming plans to launch the stablecoin WYST in July 2025, which is the first stablecoin issued by an official entity in the United States and backed by fiat currency. The value of the token will be fully supported by U.S. Treasury bonds, cash, and repurchase agreements, ensuring a capitalization rate of at least 102%. The government hopes to fund education and infrastructure projects through the interest income generated from the reserve assets. Currently, Wyoming is evaluating the use of blockchain platforms such as Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon for the deployment and trading of the token.

The launch of the WYST token marks the official entry of local governments in the United States into the cryptocurrency space, which could lay the groundwork for other states and even national-level stablecoin exploration. As the token is backed by fiat currency and has clear capitalization requirements, its stability and compliance may have advantages over existing stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. This initiative could attract traditional institutional investors into the crypto market while promoting the application of blockchain technology in public finance. However, the success of the token still depends on its market acceptance, exchange support, and competition with existing stablecoins. Additionally, if WYST chooses to operate on Solana, Ethereum, or Polygon, it could also promote the ecological development of these public chains, bringing about a certain positive market effect.

Summary

In March 2025, the global economy and financial markets exhibited a complex and volatile situation. The U.S. inflation data for February fell well below expectations, and the consumer confidence index dropped from 67.8 to 57.9 in March, indicating a decline in the U.S. economy. In the cryptocurrency sector, the IMF clearly defined the classification of crypto assets, listing Bitcoin under the capital account; Trump announced the promotion of establishing a U.S. crypto reserve, incorporating BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA as core assets of this reserve. March saw overall favorable policies and regulations for cryptocurrencies. These events intertwined not only affected short-term market performance but also provided important references for the formulation of future economic policies and market trends.

**Reference Materials:** 1. Techflow,[https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_23958.html](https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_23958.html) 2. Coindesk,[https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/04/circle-s-usdc-to-be-first-usd-stablecoin-in-japan](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/04/circle-s-usdc-to-be-first-usd-stablecoin-in-japan) 3. MarketWatch,[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-just-77-000-private-jobs-created-in-february-as-businesses-navigate-trump-tariffs-13a3cd08](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-just-77-000-private-jobs-created-in-february-as-businesses-navigate-trump-tariffs-13a3cd08) 4. Cointelegraph,[https://cointelegraph.com/news/utah-senate-passes-bitcoin-bill-but-removes-reserve-clause](https://cointelegraph.com/news/utah-senate-passes-bitcoin-bill-but-removes-reserve-clause) 5. CNBC,[https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html) 6. Cryptocraft,[https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=mar14.2025#graph=141259](https://www.cryptocraft.com/calendar?day=mar14.2025#graph=141259) 7. SEC,[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2060703/000199937125002694/canarysui-s1_031725.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2060703/000199937125002694/canarysui-s1_031725.htm) 8. IMF,[https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Data/Statistics/BPM6/draft-bpm7-wcv.ashx](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Data/Statistics/BPM6/draft-bpm7-wcv.ashx) 9. STC,[https://stabletoken.notion.site/](https://stabletoken.notion.site/)
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