Investing is just two things;
1) Determine which games to play and which games not to play.
2) What is the best way to achieve your goals in this game?

The simplest things are also the most difficult things.

One must have narrative immunity to low market capitalization memes.
There should be narrative imagination for high market capitalization leading memes.

Some "harmful" psychological constants:
1. First impressions influence subsequent judgments by about 30-50% (anchoring effect)
2. People tend to seek information that supports their existing viewpoints, with a bias of approximately 3:1 (confirmation bias) towards ignoring contradictory evidence.
3. 90% of drivers believe their driving skills are above average, and 70% of investors believe they can outperform the market (self-overestimation)
4. The pain of losing 100 yuan ≈ The joy of gaining 250 yuan (Loss Aversion)

At least 90% of retail investors in this round of encryption bull run currently seem unable to settle for mediocre performance.
Don't even mention 120,000 USD for BTC or 4,700 USD for ETH. Even if they rise by 50% or 100% again, the sentiment of retail investors is still bleak, repressed, and... you know what I mean.

High cognition + low emotion + low environment = Armchair strategist
Representing: Some scholarly-type investors
Low cognition + high emotion + low environment = blind adherence type
Representative: Some old-school value investors
Low cognition + low emotion + high environment = Environment-dependent type
Representing: some trend-following investors
Ideal state: High cognition + High emotion + High environment = System integration type
Represent: A few outstanding professional investors

The upward rise (eth) after being beaten down to dust is enough to make users cheer with joy. The pollution of price on value judgment is indeed too common and too serious. The market maker's trick is to compress the spring to death, and when it can no longer be compressed further, a slight rebound makes the retail investors start to get excited.
If you rise 10 times and then drop 30%, you will likely be scolded;
You drop 90%, then rise 2 times, and immediately become a hot commodity.

Many people are eagerly waiting for alt season. The current question is not whether alt season will come, but rather what form it will take if it does.
Is it an alt season with widespread gains? Most likely not.
Is it an alt season of 10x or more? Probably not.
The size and coverage of the alt season are the core.
You say you've endured and anticipated for so long, and now it's here, but it only pumps the top projects.
Then the final calculated increase isn't much higher than btc/eth.
The overall return on investment is actually not very worthwhile.

Attention → Influence → Reputation
Three strengths that high-value men need to possess:
1. Can attract the attention of others
2. Continuously build your own influence.
3, High Reputation Maintenance
Attention - Influence - Reputation, is the scarcity of the new era!

Not running to the wrong set is a core competency of an adult man.
You are a swimming expert, so you shouldn't compare running with others in a marathon.
You are a boxing expert, so you shouldn't go to the jiu-jitsu arena to compete with others.
In the wrong place, facing the wrong people, trying to prove yourself, every bit of effort is proof of your foolishness.

Yesterday, a friend in the group recommended that I join a group dedicated to memes. After observing for a day, I would like to share 5 insights:
1) Roles - Capital volume - Abilities must not be misaligned
From my observation, many individuals with large capital or high academic qualifications, such as those from Tsinghua or Peking University, are basically losing money in blockchain games. This is the inevitable outcome of stepping out of the set and playing a game where the advantage is not on my side.
For example, if you are a boxing expert, but you insist on going to a gentle arena to com

If you can't play, you can't play. If you can't earn, you can't earn. Ability matching is the core essence.
The ability of smart people lies in making choices. They do not run to the wrong set.

Previously, good storytelling was aimed at achieving 100m or 1b.
Now = good narrative is to pour you in 10-40m

1. Let's talk about liquidity.
Flowing from a to b is called external inflow.
The flow from a1 to a2 is called internal flow.
Internal flow is generally referred to as structural dividends under stock.
A huge external flow is generally referred to as trend dividends.
For example:
In 2024, in the cryptocurrency market, hundreds of billions of market share from non-mainstream altcoins flowed into memes. This internal movement gave birth to a structural dividend opportunity for memes.
——This is the flow between the sections.
For example,
In the past few months, a lot of funds have flowed from the

patience + conviction----putting it on BTC can yield great returns. Putting it on other altcoins is simply a waste; patience and effort are all fed to the dogs.

The crypto market currently seems to reward:
Respect those who have common sense + patience + conviction, what do these people do? Buy BTC, hold it patiently, and maintain confidence.

Encryption, this round seems to have one real big theme: institutionalization - the institutionalization of BTC, the institutionalization of ETH.

btc, eth--institutionalization
Stablecoin - Compliance
Shanzhai -- Great Degradation
meme--staging