TheTradfiGuy

Big slide in ETH despite equities stable this AM after last week’s rout. CPI tomorrow will be key watch point on whether the Fed locks in the December hike or it becomes a toss up. Oil also continues its slide as Iran dropped its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Total unwind of yesterday’s move as markets lean back into the initial narrative that started the after hours sell off post midterms
Rotations happening under the surface with Chipmakers driving the move lower

Market reversing last night’s AI regulation fear selloff after the dem midterm sweep. Futures green with vol fading and crypto bouncing. Oil also continuing its recent slide with rates bid. Election uncertainty has passed and risk appetite is returning.

Big day. $ORCL investor day at noon. Fed at 2pm, $MSFT and $GOOGL after the close. The decision is priced; the December language isn't. One hawkish sentence and the whole afternoon reprices.

Futures are flat, oil's back near its highs, and tomorrow's Fed meeting is a hold everyone already priced. The real trade is whether Warsh sounds like the hikes priced for 2027 are real. $META upping its AI funding plan to $97.5B says the capex tab isn't shrinking either.

10Y just tagged 5.04%, lowest in nearly a month. The AI wobble is fixing rates faster than the Fed ever did.

Post-open: equities green across the board (SPX +0.3%) while crypto's still in the red — ETH/SOL off 1.6-2.3% on the day as the security concern related sell off has yet to abate. 10Y ticking up slightly to 5.26% keeps the discount-rate squeeze on. Gold outperforms.

Pre-market: Oil keeps climbing, +4.9% on the day after a tanker was hit, upcoming hurricane worries, and continued expectations of escalation with Iran. Crypto continues to be soft after yesterday’s AI related hacking flush. 10y is holding 5.32% with the 30y auction later today.

Morning open: WTI back above $90 as Hormuz attacks intensify; OATs spiking again (+16bp to ~4.9%) on the French budget mess; FOMC minutes at 2pm. Crypto underperforming with ETH down -4.9%, while equity futures down slightly.

Tuesday's open: Nasdaq +2.45% over 5 days leads, VIX falling to 15.4, WTI fading -2.9% MTD on traffic thru the strait picking up, and the 10y easing slightly to 5.28% after yesterdays’s rise.

Monday pre-market: VIX up with contagion risk in focus as S&P futures are close to flat. The worry is France — OAT-Bund spread past 150bp, widest since 2011, after the market shrugged at Lecornu's €54B budget plan.