Spot Ethereum ETF outflows of 300 million USD, but derivations remain bullish! Can ETH hit 5,000 USD?

Question

On September 4, the price of Ethereum (ETH) rose by 4.7%, ending a seven-day falling streak and breaking through the $4,300 mark. Despite the U.S.-listed Spot Ethereum ETF recording a net outflow of $300 million within two days, the derivatives market has shown strong resilience, leading the market to begin discussing whether ETH still has a chance to challenge $5,000 in the coming weeks.

ETF capital outflow: short-term pressure, limited long-term impact

According to data from Farside Investors, the US Spot Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $300 million over two trading days, ending a previous six-day streak of inflows.

This figure accounts for only 1.3% of the total assets under management (AUM). In the first three weeks of August, strong inflows into ETFs and institutional buying drove ETH to surge 33%. However, the volatility since August 28 has led to $344 million in leveraged long positions being liquidated, which may suppress market sentiment in the short term.

Derivatives Market: Long-Short Structure Still Leans Bullish

CoinGlass data shows:

The demand for long positions in large CEXs briefly declined last Friday but has stabilized.

The short positions have not increased significantly, and the $4,300 support level remains solid.

Options Market (Deribit):

From the weekend to September 1, the demand for put options surged.
Starting from September 3rd, the call options activity has rebounded.
The put/call ratio has declined, indicating a decrease in downside concerns.

This means that, despite the outflows from the Spot ETF, derivatives traders remain optimistic about the medium to short-term trend of ETH.

Macroeconomic Background: Economic Data and Hedging Sentiment

US JOLTS job openings data: The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has dropped to the lowest level since April 2021.

Gold price: reaching a record high, reflecting market concerns about global economic growth and the U.S. fiscal deficit.

JPMorgan: Raises gold price forecast, expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts will weaken the attractiveness of bonds.

The macro hedging sentiment is warming up, which may indirectly support the medium to long-term demand for ETH as a digital asset, but short-term fluctuations are still influenced by economic data and policy expectations.

On-chain and ecological benefits: Capital and applications advancing together

The startup Etherealize announced the completion of a $40 million funding round, led by Electric Capital and Paradigm, focusing on the infrastructure for mortgage and credit tools on the Ethereum network.

This shows the long-term confidence of institutional capital in the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem, which may provide fundamental support for the ETH price.

ETH Price Outlook: $5,000 Still Needs Time

Bullish conditions: Strong derivatives bullish structure, growing on-chain application demand, macro environment turning accommodative.

Challenging factors: ETF fund outflows, market recovery period after leveraged long liquidations, global economic uncertainty

In the short term, if ETH can steadily hold at 4,300 USD and gradually test 4,500 USD, it is expected to challenge 5,000 USD in the fourth quarter; conversely, if it falls below 4,200 USD, it may retest the 4,000 USD support.

Conclusion

Despite the outflow of 300 million USD from the Spot Ethereum ETF, the bullish structure of the derivatives market and the on-chain capital inflow indicate that the medium to long-term outlook for ETH remains robust. Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term trend; while reaching 5,000 USD may not happen overnight, it is still a target to look forward to with the double support of macro and capital.