As August nears its end, the capital market is focusing on the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. In the current policy-sensitive window, both fluctuation risks and opportunities coexist. From the latest performance of US stocks, the three major indexes closed with steady gains on Thursday: the Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.16%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq led with a rise of 0.5%, with noticeable characteristics of the tech zone. There was significant differentiation among individual stocks; Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell by 0.8%, possibly influenced by short-term profit-taking, while Google (GOOG.O) surged by 2%, demonstrating the market's recognition of high-quality tech companies. Regarding Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up by 0.14%, showing overall stable performance. The most critical easing signal comes from the Fed's policy expectations: according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 86.2% (with a hold unchanged at only 13.8%); the cumulative probabilities for rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points in October are 49.1% and 44.2% respectively (with a hold unchanged at only 6.7%). This clear expectation of easing will profoundly impact the performance of various zones — it is favorable for interest rate-sensitive zones to reduce costs and increase profitability, while also injecting liquidity support into tech stocks and the crypto market. Closely follow the changes in policy and market sentiment, and in such a volatile market, timely grasp the real-time dynamics to seize opportunities and strategize.

Yesterday, Bitcoin exhibited a "rise followed by a fall" fluctuation: in the afternoon, it rebounded from a low of 110803 to a high of 113429, but then the bullish momentum weakened, leading to a price drop. After hitting a low of 111820 in the evening session, it rebounded slightly, currently trading around 112400 with narrow fluctuations. As the end of the month approaches, the monthly K-line pattern for Bitcoin serves as a core criterion for the "bull-bear battle." The monthly line carries signals for medium to long-term trends, and whether it ultimately closes bullishly and holds key moving averages or closes bearishly and breaks through support zones will directly impact future market expectations. The current fluctuation phase is particularly crucial. From the market perspective, bullish forces are being released slowly, lacking sustained funding and emotional support. The probability of a strong breakout in the short term is low, and the market remains in a state of deadlock between bulls and bears, with both sides tugging at key price points and the trend remaining unclear, possibly balancing or continuing until the end of the month. The four-hour level shows a clear descending wave structure, with previous support levels consecutively failing and showing evident pressure. Although there was a rebound after three consecutive bearish days yesterday, the rebound high has declined, and the trading volume has not cooperated, highlighting doubts about the validity of the price rise. The continuation of subsequent rebounds needs further validation. At present, do not blindly chase long positions. There is currently a lack of clear trend guidance, and fluctuations and rebounds are likely to be repeated. It is recommended to wait for increased trading volume to break resistance levels or for a clear reversal pattern before adjusting strategies to avoid misjudgment risks during the bull-bear deadlock.

Ethereum gradually climbed from a low of 4466 in the early morning session yesterday, reaching a high of 4632 before being pressured and unable to break through further. It then fluctuated and retraced to a low of 4425 in the early morning, after which it rebounded and fluctuated around 4500. This trend clearly shows that when the price rises to key resistance levels, it will be pressured to fall back, directly reflecting the limited bullish momentum in the current market, which remains in a consolidation pattern in the short term. From the 4-hour level, the market is operating in the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, showing a three consecutive bearish candle pattern, with prices continuously moving down in a step-like manner, and continuous upper shadows appearing. This technical pattern indicates that the pressure from above is continuously being released, resistance is increasingly apparent, and the bearish trend has strongly emerged, with downward space gradually opening up and strong bearish continuation being displayed. The hourly market has strongly broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the middle track has formed solid support, further strengthening the foundation of the bearish trend, with bearish momentum also increasing accordingly. Looking at the MACD technical indicator, the overall market shows a top divergence pattern, with the golden cross pattern continuously breaking downwards, and the market primarily showing bearish bars, with the bearish trend increasing in a step-like manner, making the characteristics of the bears dominating the market increasingly obvious. Considering the current multidimensional technical signals, the subsequent layout suggests to go with the trend, adopting a strategy of shorting on rebounds to align with the market trend, while seizing investment opportunities under the bearish trend with risk management.