Ethereum approaches $4,000, triple catalysts of ETF inflows, leveraged accumulation, and exchange liquidity may ignite the August market | ETH price prediction

Ethereum (ETH) is approaching the $4000 mark again, having risen more than 2.5% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around $3877. Although this price structure seems familiar, behind this round of rise are multiple favourable signals such as a surge in ETF capital inflow, concentrated leveraged positions, and a decline in exchange reserves, indicating that August may usher in a new round of explosive market conditions. At the same time, the ETH/BTC ratio continues to strengthen, laying the groundwork for alts season.

The leverage-intensive zone is brewing a bidirectional breakthrough, and ETF funds may become a stabilizer

According to Gate's latest ETH/USDT liquidation heat map data, there are currently over $5.78 billion in long leveraged positions concentrated between $3,358 and $3,875. ETH is currently trading at the upper end of this range, approaching a key breakout point. Once the price breaks above and holds above $3,900, it will trigger short stop-losses, leading to a strong "Short Squeeze."

Unlike in the past, this round of leverage accumulation is supported by institutional funds. In July 2025, ETH-related ETFs recorded a net inflow of $5.12 billion, setting a new monthly inflow record for the past year. The influx of ETF funds into the spot and derivatives markets has enhanced the stability of bullish positions, leading to high market expectations for continued inflows into ETFs in August.

Exchange ETH reserves are at a one-year low, and supply contraction strengthens the bull market structure

Despite the ETH price rising over 57% since the beginning of the month, the amount of coins held by exchanges has not seen a significant increase, even reaching the second lowest level in nearly a year. This indicates that the liquidity of ETH in the market is decreasing, while the buying pressure from institutions and retail investors is absorbing the selling pressure, forming a Supply Absorption structure.

As ETF funds continue to flow in, the exchange reserves are steadily decreasing, conveying a core message: buyer confidence is strong, and Ether is gradually entering a stage of value re-evaluation.

The ETH/BTC ratio has risen significantly, and the altcoin season may be about to begin

From a more macro perspective, the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to 0.032, soaring nearly 40% since the low in June. Currently, this ratio is approaching a "golden cross" arrangement of the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). If the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, it will form a technical pattern commonly seen in the early stages of a bull market, suggesting that the alts market will fully kick off.

This is not only a favorable technical signal, but it will also strengthen the pump trend of ETH in USD terms. The ETH/BTC ratio has always been a leading indicator of the ETH/USD trend.

Key resistance area for price: Fibonacci extension levels determine direction

Currently, ETH is facing resistance testing at the 0.236 Fibonacci extension level ($3919). If it effectively breaks through this level on the daily chart, the subsequent upward targets will be:

• $4,173（0.382 Fib）
• $4,378 (0.5 Fib)
• $4,583 (0.618 Fib)
• $4,874（0.786 Fib）

If ETH successfully breaks through $4874, it is expected to challenge the historical high (ATH). Considering that ETH has already risen 55% in July, the market's expectation for a new high is heating up.

However, if ETH cannot hold above $3919, it may retrace to the support area of the $3510 trend line. Once this level is broken, the trend structure will be destroyed, and the market may return to consolidation.

Conclusion:

Ethereum is currently under the combined force of ETF institutional buying, low exchange reserves, and technical breakthrough signals. The current market structure shows that ETH has the potential to initiate a new round of major upward movement, but it also faces the challenges of leverage liquidation and short-term fluctuations. Monitoring the breakthrough and pullback at key levels $3,919 and $4,874 will be essential for investors to gain insights into ETH's trend. Keywords such as "Ethereum $4000 breakthrough", "ETH ETF fund inflow", "ETH exchange reserves decrease", "ETH/BTC golden cross", and "ETH short squeeze risk" will enhance the exposure of this article in Google SEO and among crypto investors' searches.