The US military airstrike triggers a major collapse in the crypto world. Why did the 100,000 support line collapse overnight?

Why is the 100,000 defense line as fragile as paper?

As six B-2 stealth bombers tore through the night sky over the Persian Gulf, Trump announced a "surgical strike" against Iran's nuclear facilities, and global capital markets instantly plunged into panic. Bitcoin, as "digital gold," fell over 3% in just one hour, with a daily decline of 4.48%, its price crashing below $99,000, and the total losses across the network exceeding $1.015 billion, setting a record for the highest daily liquidation in 2025. This geopolitical storm is pushing Bitcoin to a critical point of attribute revolution - is it truly digital gold, or a bloodthirsty risk monster?

This plunge is reminiscent of the market reaction when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022—algorithm-driven crypto markets always have the first reaction to sudden geopolitical risks: "run first, ask questions later." Ironically, Bitcoin, which is touted as a "safe-haven asset," saw its correlation with the Nasdaq index soar to +0.61, turning it into a "high beta tech stock," in stark contrast to its negative correlation with gold (-0.07). The market has finally acknowledged: Bitcoin is not gold; it is an amplifier of risk assets.

The "Double Tail Strangulation" of War and Inflation: Bitcoin's Fatal Weakness

The market panic triggered by the U.S. military's involvement is just the fuse; the real "thunder" is buried in a deeper layer of economic logic:

1. The Lifeblood of Oil is Threatened

If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, international oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel, and severe inflationary pressures will force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, or even resume rate hikes.

2. Policy Expectation Reversal

The market originally bet on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, but inflation triggered by the war may cause easing policies to "die in the womb," with the high interest rate environment continuing to drain liquidity from the cryptocurrency market.

3. Trump's Tariff "Bomb"

If the United States expands its tariffs on China, the turmoil in the global trade system will exacerbate the volatility of Bitcoin, resulting in a dual blow of "geopolitics + policy."

As QCP Capital warned: the "double tail risk" of war and inflation may continue to put pressure on Bitcoin in the second half of the year.

Long and Short Game: Retail Investors Liquidating vs Institutions Bottom Fishing, Who is Leading the Market?

After Bitcoin fell below the key support of $101,000, market divergence has reached a boiling point:

• Retail Panic Selling

In the past 24 hours, 240,000 people have been liquidated, with long positions accounting for 89%, and leveraged traders have become "cannon fodder."

• Institutions quietly accumulate

The grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) premium rate has rebounded from -20% to -15%, indicating that institutions are accumulating positions through compliant channels during the dip.

• Technical Death Line

$100,000 is both the trading range since March 2025 and the support level of the lower Bollinger Band. If it fails to hold, it may drop to the annual low of $96,000.

Options market data further exposes the human nature of speculation: the premium for 1-month call options has risen by 8%, with retail investors betting on a rebound; however, the 6-month implied volatility is negative, indicating that institutions are extremely cautious about long-term risks.

History Repeats? Bottom Fishing or Fleeing for Your Life?

Looking back at the geopolitical conflicts of the past three years, Bitcoin's price fluctuations have consistently followed the three-stage logic of "panic selling - liquidation - risk aversion return:"

• During the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $27,000, but then rebounded due to safe-haven demand from Middle Eastern funds.
• The 2024 Trump tariff policy triggered a sharp decline, but institutions bought the dip at the $95,000 support level, pushing the price back to $100,000.

1. Short-term Defense

Keep a close eye on the support range of $96,000 to $100,000; if it breaks, risk control will be initiated.

2. Mid-term Layout

If it pulls back to $95,000 (cost price for short-term holders), you can build positions in batches.

3. Macro Hedge

Pay attention to the US dollar index and Federal Reserve policies; a DXY drop below 90 could signal the restart of a bull market.

Ultimate Question: Has the "Digital Gold" Faith in Bitcoin Collapsed?

This plunge has stripped away the last layer of "cover" for Bitcoin—it has never truly become a safe-haven asset; instead, its high volatility has made it a "barometer" of risk sentiment. But ironically:

• The Undercurrents of Middle Eastern Capital

Countries with capital controls such as Iran and Turkey may still transfer assets through Bitcoin, creating price support.

• Long-term narrative unchanged

The underlying logic for Bitcoin to challenge $200,000 still lies in the trends of institutional deepening, halving cycles, and fiat currency depreciation.

War won't kill Bitcoin, but it will accelerate market differentiation. The true winners are always those calm minds who "pick up chips in the crossfire."

Do you think Bitcoin will drop below 90,000 or make a comeback? Can the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations save the crypto world?