#比特币战略储备法案#

New Hampshire's decision to include Bitcoin in its "strategic reserves" has some short-term impacts. Although the state government can only use up to 5% of public funds to buy Bitcoin, the overall budget of the state is significant, and the actual amount that can be invested is likely just a few hundred million dollars. Throwing this amount into the Bitcoin market is like tossing a stone into a swimming pool; there may be some splashes, but it won't create big waves. However, the key point isn't the number itself, but that it sets a precedent—it's the first time a state-level entity in the U.S. government system has officially certified Bitcoin. This psychological effect can be even more powerful than actual monetary investments, especially for institutions and large holders who are closely watching policy trends; they are likely to seize the opportunity to increase their positions and push the price up.

But don't rush to celebrate. Previously, when El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender, the market also had a frenzy of speculation, but the price softened in just a few days. This time might be similar; as soon as the news came out, retail investors rushed in, and after a while, profit-taking could lead to even greater volatility. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is still grappling with inflation, and in an environment of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, liquidity is already tight. It's not easy for Bitcoin to take off solely based on the policies of one state.

In the long run, this matter resembles a domino effect. In other states in the U.S., places like Texas and Florida, which have always had a flirtatious relationship with cryptocurrency, may follow suit. Texas has already invested heavily in the mining industry, and the governor of Florida stated last year that the government would allow tax payments in Bitcoin. If a regional alliance is truly formed, the scale of funds would be completely different. To take it further, some countries might also be tempted, especially those where the local currency is prone to collapse, like Argentina and Turkey. The general public has secretly been using Bitcoin for hedging, and the government could simply ride the wave, which is much better than holding dollar reserves and being led around by the nose by the Federal Reserve's policies.

However, there are plenty of pitfalls here. With the erratic nature of Bitcoin's price, if the government really uses taxpayers' money to speculate, and ends up making a huge loss by misjudging the timing, the opposition party will definitely be up in arms. This time, New Hampshire's legislation actually left a backdoor – it only allows the purchase of assets with a market value of over $500 billion. At the moment, besides Bitcoin, there are no other options, effectively locking in the risk exposure. But if in the future, Ethereum or other cryptocurrencies' market values surge, once the policy door opens, the volatility could be even more thrilling. Moreover, environmental groups are likely to find fault; the issue of Bitcoin mining's electricity consumption has been on Europe's radar for quite some time, and it wouldn't be surprising if one day someone in a state legislature slams the table and calls for a halt.

As for the impact on ordinary people, there is a hidden storyline: government funds entering the market is equivalent to giving Bitcoin a free advertisement. Previously, it was always thought that trading coins was a game for geeks and gamblers, but now even state finances are getting involved, which can somewhat dispel the prejudice of being "unreliable." On the flip side, big capital players can more easily manipulate the market, and if small investors blindly follow the trend, they might end up getting hurt even worse.

In short, this matter can create a wave of momentum in the short term, but whether it can develop into a trend in the long term depends on how many places are willing to follow suit, as well as whether Bitcoin can perform well—if the price stabilizes, regulatory actions are not overly harsh, and energy disputes can be smoothed over, then the title of "digital gold" might just be solidified. However, if any link in the process breaks down, it will just add another piece of embellishment to the history of policies.