The different fates of the two major Meme coins of the Trump family: TRUMP seeks a future between utility and speculation, while MELANIA fades into obscurity.

Since its launch in January this year, the Donald Trump-named TRUMP Meme coin has become a tool for crypto investors to express their political stance. Its value is closely linked to political events, creating a unique trading pattern. Meanwhile, the first lady concept coin MELANIA has experienced a drastically different fate, rapidly undergoing a big dump after its launch, with almost no hope of recovery. Financial technology lawyer Burçak Ünsal pointed out that both TRUMP and MELANIA essentially lack practical utility, but the value of TRUMP is distinctive due to its direct association with political events. Its future development may depend on whether it can merge with other projects to gain real utility.

From peak to big dump: TRUMP coin and the trading linkage with political news

Like most other Meme coins, the price trajectory of TRUMP is full of dramatic fluctuations. However, what sets it apart from other tokens is that its trading activity has become a barometer for measuring investor sentiment on political events.

The token experienced explosive growth after its launch in January this year, skyrocketing to nearly $75 historic high under Trump's endorsement. Although the price subsequently fell sharply, trading activity was reignited after events closely related to the president.

For example, in April of this year, after announcing that top holders would be invited to a private dinner with the president and a VIP trip to the White House, the token price increased by over 50%. However, when Trump announced a series of trade tariffs or had disputes with Elon Musk, the token price sharply fell to historical lows. In August, the launch of another encryption project by the Trump family, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), along with the subsequent Nasdaq ringing ceremony, also boosted the value of TRUMP.

Why TRUMP is Slightly Better than MELANIA

TRUMP and MELANIA Meme coins both have similar histories of high volatility in their prices, having been launched as political projects before Trump's inauguration. While insiders have reaped considerable returns, many retail investors have suffered significant losses.

Although TRUMP has become a tool for measuring the acceptance of political events, its essence remains speculative. Lawyer Ünsal believes: "TRUMP is not just a digital asset; it is more of a politically charged declaration. Its value is closely tied to Trump's public status and the media attention he attracts. However, this is precisely why TRUMP is inherently speculative." He pointed out that the price fluctuations of TRUMP are almost entirely related to Trump's personal exposure, political events, and media hype, rather than its intrinsic utility.

The token has not yet developed into a payment system, infrastructure token, or governance mechanism, which limits its broader functional relevance. Its main purpose still remains as a symbolic ownership, similar to a donation contribution, or to gain exclusive access to NFT-related events.

At the same time, the recovery prospects for the MELANIA token are almost nonexistent. Ünsal added: "MELANIA fell from $12.76 to $0.20, a big dump of 98%, widely described as a failed 'pump and dump' scheme, allegedly misusing about $30 million of community funds, with internal wallets trading before the announcement, thin liquidity, slow growth of unique holders, limited utility, and burdened with a heavy reputational cost." Based on this outlook, he believes that MELANIA has little chance of turning the situation around as it requires transparent governance reforms and demonstrating actual utility.

Trump The Road Ahead: Favorable Policies and Structural Risks

Trump's second term created a significantly more friendly encryption environment. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has softened its enforcement stance, high-profile lawsuits against Coinbase and mainstream CEX have stalled, and even a case related to another CEX has been granted clemency.

In addition, the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and a federal digital asset reserve also adds legitimacy to the encryption industry, indicating broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Ünsal believes that this combination of deregulation momentum and institutional recognition provides a policy backdrop for TRUMP's development in the coming years.

However, the token also faces structural risks. The remaining release of TRUMP tokens over the next three years may saturate the market supply unless demand can keep up. Large holders could also further amplify its volatility through concentrated buying and selling.

In terms of potential upside, Ünsal emphasized how the ongoing deregulation trend and symbolic recognition could stabilize the token: "If the current deregulatory stance is maintained and the token gains quasi-mainstream appeal... TRUMP could stabilize or even rebound."

Utility: The Key Missing from TRUMP's "Longevity"

Analysts generally believe that for encryption assets to achieve lasting value, they need to have clear utility, ecosystem integration, supply and demand stability mechanisms, and regulatory clarity. Ünsal points out that TRUMP lacks these characteristics.

However, if the president merges this Meme coin with other existing encryption projects, the situation may change. Ünsal uses Truth.Fi as an example: "If Truth.Fi can natively integrate TRUMP, it will transform the role of this token from a speculative ancillary project to a core loyalty or identity token."

This integration can help TRUMP take root among tens of millions of political ally users. In this context, holders may view this token as a form of ideological expression and a means of financial participation.

"This narrative shift can transform speculative traders into loyal holders, thereby naturally reducing volatility," Ünsal added, "TRUMP could become a networked political coin, rather than just a meme token floating on CEX."

Conclusion

TRUMP Meme coin has existed longer than many similar tokens at the intersection of politics and encryption. Its value reflects more of political exposure and media attention rather than intrinsic utility, making it unique and highly speculative. The collapse of MELANIA underscores the risks faced by tokens lacking governance or integration. Although Trump's second term created a favorable policy environment, TRUMP's future potential still depends on whether it can move beyond the hype. Without tangible utility, broader applications, and mechanisms to balance supply and demand, its price will remain forever closely tied to politics rather than fundamentals.