The Central Bank's interest rate cuts and the low confidence index reveal that the encryption bull run cycle may just be beginning.

Julien Bittel, the macro research director for global macro investors, recently analyzed that the market's general perception that the bull run for Crypto Assets has reached its peak may be overly pessimistic. According to multiple economic and sentiment indicators, the current macro environment resembles the early stages of a bull run cycle rather than the late-stage recession period. Coupled with the global Central Banks' synchronized interest rate cuts and a loose financial environment, this may indicate that the upward potential of the crypto market has just begun.

Emotional Misjudgment: The Market is Not at the End of the Cycle

In a study shared by Bittel on September 8 on platform X, he refuted the common narrative that "the bull run has peaked." He pointed out that typical late-cycle economies exhibit:

1. Confidence in the manufacturing and service sectors is very high (ISM index close to 60)

2. Home builders and consumer confidence are high.

3. Investor sentiment is overheated

4. Wage growth accelerates

However, after analyzing data from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and the World Federation of Large Corporations, U.S. economic confidence remains low and has not yet reached the extreme levels typical of the later stages of the cycle.

Central Bank Policy: Interest Rate Cuts Release Growth Momentum

Bittel emphasized that nearly 90% of Central Banks worldwide are cutting interest rates, and this "unusual" synchronized easing is providing a strong tailwind for the business cycle:

1. Lowering interest rates reduces financing costs, stimulating corporate investment and consumer spending.

2. Loose policies have historically been associated with rising asset prices.

3. Particularly beneficial for high volatility assets (such as Crypto Assets)

Oil Prices and Financial Environment: Early Cycle Signals

Currently, oil prices are nearly 20% below the trend line and continuing to decline, in stark contrast to the typical energy price surges seen in the late cycle.

Historical data shows that oil prices above the trend by 50% often signal an economic recession. The current trend in oil prices indicates that the financial environment is loosening, which helps the capital market continue its upward movement.

From 'Macro Spring' to 'Macro Summer'

Bittel describes the current status as a transition from "early cycle" to "mid cycle":

Macroeconomic Spring: Economic Growth Rebound, Inflation Decline

Macroeconomic Summer: Continuous Economic Growth, Inflation Rising

He pointed out that the rise in unemployment rate is a lagging effect of employment data and does not indicate an economic recession. Companies typically first increase overtime and temporary workers before gradually expanding formal hiring.

Insights on the crypto market

If Bittel's judgment is correct, the current crypto market is still in the early stages of a bull run:

Bitcoin and Ethereum, among other mainstream assets, may receive continued support in a macro loose environment.

Shanzhai coins and emerging sectors (such as DeFi, L2, AI concept coins) may迎來資金輪動 in the medium term.

Investors should pay attention to Central Bank policies, oil price trends, and the global economic confidence index as a basis for cyclical judgment.

Conclusion

Bittel's analysis challenges the market consensus that the "bull run has reached its end" and points out that the macro environment is releasing signals of an early cycle. With global Central Banks lowering interest rates, oil prices operating at low levels, and economic confidence gradually recovering, the crypto market may be at the starting point of a new long-term upward trend. For investors, this could be a golden window period for early positioning.