Has the bull really returned? A brief discussion of the market outlook~
Bitcoin surged over the past two days, and the market is filled with overwhelmingly positive sentiment, exciting everyone watching. I was getting injections all week this week and didn’t livestream due to health reasons, so many friends have been asking Altman: What should we do? The answer was actually revealed to everyone in last week’s livestream. I clearly told you my view: two consecutive months of favorable nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, bearish sentiment around 6.78 failing to push prices down for three months, time replacing space to digest expectations of a major drop, cooling inflation, delayed rate-hike expectations, and the November midterm elections. Positive sentiment is spreading across the board, making it difficult for the market to experience a sharp decline. We need to change our way of thinking and recognize the trend reversal.
After last Wednesday’s CPI data, I also suggested buying on dips and taking profits. During the livestream, I repeatedly gave you 646-650 as a level to short. Then, after the price reached 623-625 last Friday, I reminded you that it was almost enough and suggested turning around to go long and look for gains. I also made it very clear that in the second half of the month, the overall trend in the latter part would turn around, fluctuate, and favor the upside. All of this matched the analysis.
The market sentiment is now extremely excited and overheated, exceeding the expectations of most people. Yet some still say they followed me into shorts and that I only know how to short. I refuse to take the blame for that. I have to point out that I was bullish all week and did not issue a single short order. My entire strategy and approach have been fulfilled. I reminded you all the way not to short: first look at 650, then 730, then 766. All of these targets were reached. If you still want to pin the blame on me, I’m afraid I can’t carry that burden.
So, has the bull market returned, or is this just a rebound? Let’s discuss the market’s pace going forward. These were the major sectors and factors that had the biggest impact on this week’s strong rally!
1. Macro liquidity catalyst (the core macro factor)
The U.S. Treasury announced that it would double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks and increase purchases of long-term bonds, pushing down long-term U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar marginally, which lifted risk-asset valuations. The market interprets this as not QE, but as a genuine improvement in market liquidity. High-risk assets such as Bitcoin benefit directly.
2. Positive developments in U.S. crypto regulation
1. Trump met with crypto executives from Coinbase and other companies at the White House and publicly promoted the implementation of the CLARITY Act, giving the industry clearer expectations for a regulatory framework.
2. The SEC introduced a draft crypto-asset safe harbor, lowering the compliance threshold for projects. At the same time, signals emerged that it was promoting the entry of compliant overseas platforms into the U.S. market, substantially improving market sentiment.
3. Capital flows: Continued large inflows into spot ETFs
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for multiple consecutive days, with a daily peak of $606 million and a four-day cumulative total of approximately $1.6 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT was the main source of buying, representing the return of traditional institutional capital to the spot market.
4. Derivatives: Massive short liquidations (amplifying the gains)
A large number of short positions had accumulated at lower levels. After the price broke through key levels, forced liquidations of short positions were triggered one after another. Short covering created passive buying, with more than $4 billion in short positions liquidated over two days, further accelerating the rally. This acted as an amplifier for the market move.
5. Whale addresses stopped selling and began accumulating;
Crypto-related U.S. stocks, including Coinbase and Strategy, also strengthened in tandem, creating positive feedback.
These were the core factors behind the acceleration of the major rally. Bitcoin has now risen by nearly 18000 points this week. So will the market continue to advance, and can the altcoin sector take off?
Altman’s preliminary judgment is that the bull-return trend is basically not far off and is still in its early budding stage. This week’s large-scale sudden trend reversal has already reversed the downward momentum, but the market will still face multiple tests going forward. However, whether it is temporary hawkish or dovish news from the Federal Reserve or developments in the Middle East, these have already had far less influence on the July-August market than before. This week, driven by major positive developments from the U.S. government, crypto sentiment itself was directly boosted. Therefore, regardless of how short-term factors affect the market, positive developments will continue to emerge over the next 2-3 months. Capital will keep entering the market, and prices will continue to reach new highs! So all we can do is follow the market’s rhythm, go long, and stay bullish. And with golden September and silver October approaching, multiple sectors are set to benefit!
Below, I’ll tell you about the assets I believe are worth exploring, for your own reference~
Bitcoin: From the July 1 low of 57800 to 79500, it has already broken through weekly resistance and broken out of the encirclement. Going forward, it will further break through and extend toward the 83000-96000-106000 levels! Continue arranging positions around the bullish structure! Watch the 74600 and 73000 areas for support. A slight pullback is enough to arrange swing trades; for short-term trading, buy a little on small dips and buy more on major dips!
Ethereum: Once the momentum picks up, there will be another major opportunity ahead. This round is expected to have considerable remaining upside, and an advance toward the 2800-3200 area is also possible.
Gold: This pullback is nearly complete and has basically signaled the start of the move. Once 4600 emerges and holds, the next targets will be 4860-5200-5800. Arrange swing trades on pullbacks and remain bullish step by step!
Trump: It is expected to surge to 8-12 dollars; you may consider entering with a small position!
LTC: It has not shown much strength yet, but once it truly starts, the 85-102 area should come into view!
SOL: There is still upside; first look toward the 125-146 area!
For other assets, Altman will continue providing updates and monitoring them! Stay tuned, everyone! When the market opportunity arrives, make sure you seize it! An opportunity to get rich in one move! One-on-one gold-medal guidance, starting at 10 wu! Only 5 spots left! I only guide those who are committed, and only wait for those who are committed! $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破$77000 #Gate首发上线日股交易 #GateBTC现货交易全网第二