ETH at $1,890—are you panicking?
Look at the surface first: it spiked and pulled back, sending retail traders into a panic.
CPI data came in as expected. ETH rebounded from around $1,880 to above $1,900, touching a high of $1,924.97. But a $132 million sell wall from major players appeared, sending it straight back to $1,875.
Over the past 24 hours, it has moved back and forth between $1,880 and $1,900, unable to rise or fall decisively.
Are you thinking again: “ETH is finished. Should I cut my losses?”
First: Vitalik just dropped a bombshell, and you may not have understood it at all.
On August 12, Vitalik updated Ethereum’s roadmap.
The “six phases” from 2023 have become a new plan extending through 2029. Quantum security has been moved significantly higher on the priority list, while strong privacy has been listed as a top-level goal for the first time. Recursive STARK verification and AI-assisted formal verification have been positioned as core protocol components.
Second: The staking rate has reached a record high, locking up circulating supply.
Today’s data: 41.89 million ETH is staked, accounting for 34.7% of the total supply, a record high. There are approximately 789k active validators. The staking rate was only around 30% at the beginning of the year, rising by nearly 5 percentage points in six months.
More importantly—the network inflation rate has fallen to approximately 0.86%.
More than one-third of ETH is locked up, new issuance is almost zero, while demand is still rising.
This is a classic “supply shock.” The price has not moved because macro conditions are suppressing it; once the macro environment turns, the supply-side elasticity could trigger an explosive move.
Third: The macro environment is quietly turning.
The Federal Reserve has held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for five consecutive meetings. July CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while core CPI was 2.5%. July nonfarm employment fell by 23k, while an increase of 80k was expected.
Inflation is cooling and employment is weakening—the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen sharply.
Once the Fed pivots, high-beta assets like ETH will have much greater upside elasticity than BTC.
Key levels
Resistance above: 1920-1940 (sell-wall zone) → 2000 (psychological level) → 2030 (200-day moving average)
Support below: 1875-1885 (current area) → 1850 (strong support) → 1800
Technicals are neutral to bullish—RSI is around 50-53, while MACD momentum is weak but has not formed a death cross. Volatility has compressed to an extreme, and a directional move could emerge at any time.
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Open a small long position around 1875-1885, with a stop-loss at 1845-1850 and a target of 1900-1920. If it breaks above 1920 on strong volume and holds, add to the position and target 1950-2000.
Swing traders:
Accumulate in batches on dips as long as 1850 holds, targeting 2000 → 2100-2250. If 1850 breaks on strong volume, stand aside for now.
Long-term believers:
A 34.7% staking rate, a 0.86% inflation rate, and Vitalik just laying out a vision through 2029—ETH at $1,900, what are you afraid of? Just dollar-cost average.
ETH’s current script—
It is exactly the same as at the end of 2022: fundamentals are improving, the price is low, retail traders are panicking, and institutions are accumulating.
The staking rate has hit a new high, Vitalik has laid out a new vision, and CPI is cooling.
You want to dismiss all of this based on a one-month candlestick chart?
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $1,900, are you selling at a loss or adding to your position? #GateLaunchpool瓜分141万枚DOS #7月CPI符合预期通胀继续降温 #我的七夕交易分享 $BTC $ETH $SOL