DOGE (DOGE) may become the next inflow hotspot? The surge in supply from short-term holders and ETF expectations are key.

In the past month, market funds have mainly favored Ethereum, but now the market is sending potential reversal signals. DOGE, with its unique advantages, may become the next hot target for capital inflow. Its core driving factors include the rise in supply from short-term holders (STH) and strong market expectations for the approval of a DOGE ETF.

Retail investors are turning to DOGE

One of the most important indicators for DOGE is the Short-Term Holder Supply (STH Supply). This indicator is on the rise, suggesting that short-term investors have begun to accumulate DOGE. The STH Supply measures the amount of DOGE held in wallets for less than 155 days. The increase in this indicator reflects that new capital is entering the market, which typically brings higher buying pressure.

According to Alphractal's data, historical charts show that the STH supply of DOGE significantly surged during both 2017 and 2021. These two periods coincided with the bull markets when DOGE prices skyrocketed.

Entering early September 2025, the STH supply of DOGE has risen again after a period of decline. Although this trend is not yet very strong, this signal indicates that new funds are flowing into DOGE, which may lay the foundation for a new round of price rises similar to past cycles.

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson predicts: "If the supply of short-term holders continues to rise, DOGE may experience a significant surge - it seems accumulation has already begun. Historically, whenever the STH supply increases, it triggers a fierce bull market for DOGE. In recent weeks, this metric has been climbing, and if this trend continues, it is very promising for Meme coins."

DOGE ETF Expected to Boost Confidence

Another key factor supporting the inflow of funds in September is investors' expectations for the approval of the DOGE ETF.

The prediction market platform Polymarket shows that as of September, the probability of a DOGE ETF being approved has reached a new high of over 90%, the highest level since the beginning of this year.

Recently, Rex Shares and Osprey Funds announced the upcoming launch of DOJE, an ETF designed to track the performance of this popular meme coin.

Rex Shares claims: "DOJE will be the first ETF that allows investors to access the performance of the iconic meme coin DOGE."

However, DOJE is not a spot ETF that has been approved like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Instead, it is a 40 Act ETF designed to shorten the approval process. Meanwhile, the SEC is still reviewing spot DOGE ETF applications from issuers such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares. Technical analysts also emphasize that a bullish horn-shaped pattern is forming, indicating that the price of DOGE could rise to $1.4 before the end of the year.

Conclusion

The rise in the supply of short-term DOGE holders, combined with the increased chances of ETF approval, paints a hopeful future for the token. These two factors together indicate that DOGE is transitioning from an asset entirely driven by the community and celebrities to a potential investment target that simultaneously possesses technological and institutional catalysts. Although the ETF launched by Rex Shares is not a spot ETF, it provides investors with a new, more regulated channel to gain exposure to DOGE. As the SEC continues to weigh spot ETF applications, the next price cycle for DOGE may be more vibrant and attractive than ever.