In this bull run, the performance of ETH is indeed not outstanding, and many people have begun to lose confidence in it.
In 2021, ETH was like the brightest star on stage, the focus of the entire event. At that time, we had become accustomed to its attention-grabbing presence and had started to like that aura. So this time, when a more popular project appeared on stage, many "old ETH fans" began to feel uncomfortable. Uncomfortable with the cheers from the audience changing direction, uncomfortable with the spotlight no longer solely belonging to ETH.
This bull run can indeed be described as "depressing" or "difficult." During the last bull run, ETH, despite its massive market value, still outperformed most public chain competitors, easily crushing the then-popular EOS. Uniswap also stood out in the DeFi space, soaring for five months without looking back.
But this time, we have not yet felt that kind of "seeing the light through the clouds" exhilaration. The feeling of a cryptocurrency that has finally been recognized by the market after a long trial.
Since the confirmation of the bull run starting in October 2023, the increase in ETH has not only been less than the larger market cap of BTC, but has even lagged far behind the rising star Solana. This round of BTC has the support of ETFs and the momentum of inscriptions, advancing like a hot knife through butter. Meanwhile, Solana's share in the DeFi sector continues to rise, with the popularity of Memes coming in waves, drawing away the attention that was originally thought to belong to the Ethereum ecosystem's second layer.
New projects on Solana, even some newly launched Meme coins, can easily surpass AAVE and COMP, which have been operating for 5 or 6 years. The phenomenal Meme - Trump, has even gone viral. In contrast, the Ethereum NFT market has yet to show signs of improvement, having lost a significant portion of the market to BTC and Solana's NFTs. Eden has even nominally surpassed Blur, becoming the number one NFT exchange in the market, while Jupiter on Solana has had several days where its trading volume exceeded that of Uniswap.
Did we make a mistake? This is a question many people unconsciously ask themselves when they see other projects skyrocket.
Recently, Xiaomi Auto encountered some issues, and the Xiaomi team wrote a reflection letter, which included a sentence: "As we walked along, we became the very people we hated the most, forgetting about putting users first, and instead focusing all day on sales and competitors."
Aren't we just like that? We are starting to become indifferent to whether what Uniswap does next is visionary, and we don't care what kind of changes V4 can bring. We just want to know if it can pump quickly, so we can cash out and exit.
Some people say, don't take it seriously, we are here to speculate, the price of the coin and the increase are what we should focus on.
That's right, this is also true. But why do I still care whether it has a long-term vision and technological advantages? Because this determines my confidence in it. Without confidence, I can't endure the torment during a decline. Focusing only on short-term gains will leave you without a safety net.
If you're just looking to speculate and can't hold even a 50% increase; whereas something like UNI, which rose from 3.8 to 17, still has people who believe this is far from the end, that is the essential difference.
To keep everyone alert, let's review what was said in the past:
Value investing is not a guarantee of making money, but rather a game with a "relatively high win rate." During a bear market, the probability of losing less is high; when a bull run comes, the probability of surviving is greater; during sudden events, the likelihood of not being caught in a pit is even higher; when negative news arrives, the probability of not being forced to sell at the bottom is also somewhat higher.
If you persist in doing certain things, you will gradually widen the gap.
The authorities are confused: We all know that staying at the casino will ultimately lead to losing to the house. In real life, we have learned to cut losses in a timely manner, but in this circle, we often fantasize about making big money through speculation.
Looking back at the previous two bull runs, although there were many chaotic situations in the early stages, in the end, those projects that were truly valuable, had technology, and were supported by demand all received the increases they deserved.
Only projects that simultaneously have narrative, technology, and user base are likely to stand taller and more stable. In the coming months, we will see the validation.
There are funds seeking short-term gains, and there will also be investors willing to accompany for the long term. No need to rush.
For example:
Others may only dare to invest 1 yuan in a certain coin, and sell it hurriedly after it rises 2-3 times; while you invest heavily in a project, even if it only rises 10 times, as long as you hold on to it, the returns can still be considerable. True profit is not measured by how much the coins you've touched have risen, but by how much you've harvested from a single coin.
Take a long-term perspective.
If you only want to determine a winner today or tomorrow, you are destined to be in a bad mood. Because there will always be someone whose coins rise faster than yours, invests more than you, and earns more than you.
But if you see yourself as someone who needs to survive in the investment market for over 30 years, then the wins and losses of a certain bull run, the right or wrong decisions, are merely multiple-choice questions in a mid-term exam. Looking back, those are just part of the process.
Patience, patience, more patience. It is always darkest before dawn. And I believe that it will soon be ETH's turn to shine.