Is XRP’s 4-hour chart lying? $XRP /USDT - SHORT Trading Plan: Entry: 1.4691 – 1.4805 SL: 1.5295 TP1: 1.4337 TP2: 1.4064 TP3: 1.3653 Why focus on this setup? - The 1D trend is range-bound, but the 4h direction is clearly SHORT, Conf 55—this is not a one-way move, but selling near the top of the range. - The current price is 1.4748, close to entry_ref; RSI(15m) is 55.4, not yet overbought, but the upside for the rebound is limited. - ATR(1h) is 0.0228, indicating moderate volatility. The SL is set at 1.5295 (approximately 3.7% risk), while TP1 is at 1.4337 (2.8% profit), so the risk-reward ratio is not bad. - Why now? Because the price is in the upper-middle part of the range and the 4h bias has turned bearish. We’re waiting for confirmation of a short position near 1.4805, rather than chasing the price higher. Discussion: Will this move reach TP1 at 1.4337 first, or will a direct false breakout above 1.4805 hit your stop-loss?

The Liquidity Lever - How Treasury Buyback Expansion Lit The Fuse Under Crypto The most talked about macro shift this week did not come from the Fed. It came from the Treasury. The department floated an expansion of its buyback program, with estimates pointing to $BTCbillion in capacity this year. The aim is to improve off-the-run bond market function, but the side effect is pure liquidity. How buybacks help crypto: When Treasury buys back old bonds, it pays dealers with cash. Dealer balance sheet frees up. That cash then flows into repo, money funds, and risk assets. For crypto, which trades as a high-beta liquidity proxy, that flow matters more than any single headline. More dealer capacity means more risk appetite for basis trades and more cash for ETF market makers to hedge. What market saw on Aug 20: • Bitcoin jumped from $SOLto $71.5kin two days, best two-day gain since 2024. • Ether and Solana led beta, up over 8% on the day, a sign of risk-on rotation, not just short cover. • Shorts worth over $1Bwere wiped in an hour, near $5Bover two days. • Spot ETF inflow hit $606Mfor Bitcoin and $219Mfor Ether, showing real spot bid behind futures squeeze. • Realized vol, which had been at yearly lows, spiked, forcing vol sellers to buy back. Why this buyback matters more than past ones: • Scale: $171Bis large enough to offset a month of QT. That matters when Fed balance sheet is still shrinking. • Timing: it lands as Fed holds rates high and keeps QT running. Treasury is adding liquidity while Fed is draining it. That split keeps risk bid even when rate cut odds fade after Jackson Hole. • Plumbing: off-the-run bonds clog dealer books. Cleaning them up lowers dealer leverage costs, which lowers funding cost for basis trades. Cheaper basis means more cash and carry inflow into crypto via ETF and futures arb. Trader read: • Buybacks are a slow drip, not a one-day pump. Front-run the announcement, then buy dips into settlement days when cash actually hits dealers. The Aug 20 move was front-run, but follow-through depends on settlement pace. • Track dealer balance sheet proxies: primary dealer holdings, repo fails, SOFR spread. When those ease, crypto tends to lag by 1-2 days then catch up. • Watch stablecoin mint. After buyback news, stablecoin supply on Ether rose to $155.9B,up 22% YoY, a sign that fresh dollars entered crypto rails • Position via spot plus long call, not naked short vol. Low vol + high open interest + buyback headline is a classic squeeze setup. • Risk: if Treasury funds buybacks by issuing more bills, net liquidity impact shrinks. So track bill issuance vs buyback pace. If bill supply jumps, the lift fades. For builders, cheap funding lowers cost to hedge treasury. For funds, it lowers hurdle to add crypto as collateral in multi-asset books. This is why a bond market tool moved a crypto market: liquidity is the tide, price is the boat. When tide rises by $171B,boats rise fast, even if rates stay high. #LiquidityShock #TreasuryBuyback $BTC $GT $ETH $SOL $XRP

The hand that set a stop-loss a few days ago trembled slightly; this morning, I realized it was unnecessary filial devotion. When the early-session sell-off began, $BP surged to a level but couldn’t go higher. Resistance overhead was clear and selling was heavy. I watched the order book for two minutes, felt there were no buyers to catch the drop, and opened a short position. I only expected to pick up a few points, but it kept falling. I held the short from 0.5330 to 0.488, and a +85.78% return appeared in the account. Staying up all night was worth it—the people on board should be waking up laughing. Being flat isn’t a sin; opening positions recklessly is. Don’t get carried away by profits or despair over drawdowns. For the trade, close 80% first and lock in the gains, then move the stop-loss on the remaining 20% to the entry price. If it keeps selling off, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don’t give them back. Lock in gains when it’s time—the bulk goes in your pocket first. I won’t chase at this level. I’ll wait for a more comfortable entry point in the next round and alert you immediately. Brother, don’t be greedy for the last bit. There will be more opportunities, so don’t rush. $ZEC $XRP