The Night Before the Alt Season Explosion: How to Build a Suitable Alts Investment Portfolio?

*Original author: *cyclop

Original text compiled by: Tim, PANews

These are the clearest bull market signals I have seen in my seven years in the cryptocurrency market:

• BTC is approaching its all-time high price
• Retail interest is at a historical low.
• ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks out of a 3-year downtrend
• The altcoin index rebounds from the lower range.

Every factor has triggered a clone season. Now they are all gathered together, creating a resonance.

Is this really the beginning of the next wave of knockoff seasons?

I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I truly believe we are finally going to witness a surge in altcoins.

In this lengthy thread, I will elaborate in detail on:

• How market sentiment changes and why it is bullish
• What changes have occurred that ultimately made the imitation season a reality?
• Important Future Catalysts
• Key Indicators and Their Implication Signals
• Which altcoins may skyrocket
• How to build a suitable altcoin seasonal investment portfolio
• How to research projects that are difficult to implement

I have been in the cryptocurrency space for 7 years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that trigger altcoin seasons.

Yes, there have indeed been some changes in the cycle, and I have detailed the process and reasons for the changes in the quoted post.

However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more lasting altcoin season, and this trend does not require the price of Bitcoin to soar to $150,000 to support it.

The narrative around BTC has undergone a fundamental shift, from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment target for macro hedging, the sixth largest asset by market capitalization (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and a primary countermeasure for isolated or high-inflation countries.

The rise of Bitcoin from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the start of the altcoin season.

The volatility of Bitcoin's price increase (measured in percentage) will decrease, and the same goes for its price drops. As the market capitalization grows, its price fluctuations will become such. Each year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store of value asset is becoming increasingly clear, rather than a speculative asset.

This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.

High market cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "alternatives to Bitcoin." They are now viewed as technology companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, while Solana resembles high-performance infrastructure, and so on.

This cognitive shift has also occurred in past market cycles, each time marking the beginning of the altcoin season. Now, let's talk about what changes actually took place that ultimately made the altcoin season possible.

After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic turned into a believer. Bitcoin's dominance just experienced the most severe three-day decline since November 2024. The sentiment in the altcoin market has dropped to freezing point, and even after this slight rise, retail participation remains at a historical low. In my opinion, the Pectra upgrade changed the rules of the game. The solution also addressed the biggest obstacle facing the Ethereum-driven altcoin season: issues at the user interface and user experience level.

Retail Investor Index

Despite being widely adopted, the retail index is currently close to historical lows. This factor has historically played a key role in the early stages of altcoin seasons. Now, it has once again become a positive signal. Let me elaborate on this:

It is important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when they are in absolute best condition and bottom out when they are in despair and helplessness. Altcoins are still in deep trouble, but from this moment on, the only way out is to rise against the trend and rebound from the bottom.

What are the catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. What are the reasons for the decline? None, the market is extremely bearish. Even after doubling from the bottom, the retail index (in part) has yet to show up or meet the standard. We have finally reached a moment like this: even though altcoins have already risen 4 times, it still seems possible to rise another 10 times.

ETH/BTC price chart

ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend for five consecutive months, which has had a negative impact on ETH. Its price and attention have both declined, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking through key resistance, Ethereum's price surged, releasing a strong signal for the rise of altcoins.

Now let's take a look at some key indicators, such as:

• Global Liquidity
• Stablecoin Index
• Shanzhai Season Index

All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and an influx of liquidity into the crypto market, heralding the arrival of altcoin season.

But this time the counterfeit season will be different.

In the last cycle, there were relatively few altcoins, so almost all coins surged. This time the situation is different: a severe oversupply makes it difficult for all altcoins to maintain their upward momentum. It is likely that less than 10% will experience significant changes, and the key is how to find these potentials.

Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and how much profit you hope to gain.

• Large-cap stocks = low profit + low risk
• Mid-cap stocks = moderate profit + moderate risk
• Small-cap stocks = high profit + high risk

Altcoin Research Methodology

If it is a high market value and practical token, rather than a newly emerged Meme coin, it is better to pay attention because the risk of encountering fraud is relatively low in this case. The token can be analyzed based on the following aspects:

• Market Cap
• Liquidity
• Trading Volume
• Listing status of centralized and decentralized exchanges

Then create a list of altcoins you like.

Follow credible KOLs and investigate whether they have关注或提及了该项目.

If a project is getting a lot of attention from KOLs but they themselves are not invested, then it's likely that this thing is garbage.

Analyze the project

Start conducting detailed research on the altcoins in your list.

Verify the following matters:

1. What is the core concept of the project? Is there a market demand?

2. How is the product quality? Please check their official website and social media platforms for details.

3. Are the members of the project team public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?

Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns

A hundredfold profit will not be achieved in a day, a week, or even a month.

By conducting in-depth research on potential projects and holding them for the long term.

Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.

The most important principle:

Do not overly diversify your positions. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below illustrates the reason.

Conclusion

Most indicators clearly suggest that the altcoin season is approaching, and all that’s left is to be well-prepared. Remember: if you believe in everything, it means you believe in nothing. Don't pick dozens of projects; focus on a maximum of 5 and maintain a cautious attitude.

Only then can you capture the less than 10% potential altcoins that are expected to achieve returns of over a hundred times. If that's not enough, just take a look at this chart and you'll understand.

0 out of 30 bull market peak indicators have been triggered. Strange, right?

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Source: PANews