As soon as this wave of CPI data from the United States was released, the core logic was only one sentence: the reduction of inflationary pressure = the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts increased. And once the market smells the smell of interest rate cuts, it will pull gold and BTC higher, weighing on the dollar. The data is good for the risk, showing that inflation is stable, slowing down the tariff on inflation stimulus (it is not excluded that tariffs have not been transmitted to the consumer side), short-term represents economic stability, short-term stimulus stock market pre-market rise, especially the recent slowdown in Sino-US relations, global risk appetite gradually repaired, and then focus on Thursday night's PPI data, which will further confirm the inflation and economic trend of the United States. It is worth noting that after the release of the CPI data, the market expectation remains that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates in June. According to the data, the probability of not cutting interest rates in June is as high as 93.1%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates in July has risen to 63.2%. Combined with Powell's speech at the beginning of the month, the market gradually formed a consensus that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates unless the tariffs are officially implemented or the US economy declines significantly.

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From the perspective of the daily structure of the market, the retracement can be regarded as a corrective trend, and the short-term structure is still biased towards a strong upward continuation. Although the currency price fell, it stopped at a low level, and the retracement is expected to be limited, and there is a possibility of continued growth in the short term. The mid-band on the daily chart, as the current support level, is still valid in the short term, although the four-hour chart briefly broke through the mid-band, but it quickly stopped there. The current correction pullback is a part of the bullish upward attack, there is no bulls that only rise and fall, the continuation of the bullish trend will inevitably need the bears' retracement correction to accumulate strength, so all the current retracement can be regarded as a correction in the process of bullish rise, the bears' strength is gradually weakened, if the current BOLL lower rail is effectively supported, the market outlook is expected to regain the upward trend, the operation is still mainly low, and the small box is under pressure supplemented by short orders.
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