Recentrly I saw someone treat on-chain large transfers and exchange hot and cold wallets as "smart money" copying trades... Now I ask myself: is this really building a position, or hedging/arbitrage/moving positions? To put it simply, you can see the address, but you can't see the motive. Many whales, on one hand, add spot positions, and on the other, open perpetuals in the opposite direction; their net exposure actually doesn't change. Following their trades only lets you follow the "actions," but you don't catch the risk. My habit is to first break down: whether the source of funds looks like subsidies, whether the position is increasing risk or reducing volatility, and whether there's a deadline pressure; if you can't see clearly, just act as a bystander, and miss it if you do. As for you saying "can't all flow directions be inferred from the flow"... don't rush.