2025.10.19
The market has rebounded slightly, maintaining a volatile trend.
The market has rebounded a bit, which is a slight improvement compared to the despairing atmosphere brought by the downward trend the day before yesterday. However, this is a common market condition and sentiment that we can expect in the coming weeks.
Because I judge that the fluctuation cycle will not end quickly, it is at least not until November that this market condition may end. Additionally, I always want to emphasize one point: behind the huge liquidations on 1011, there must be institutions or fund custodians that have collapsed.
I guess the institutions that are currently facing crises are maneuvering their funds or refinancing in order to obtain a sufficient safety cushion before users make large withdrawals. However, for us, while we should not deposit money casually, we must also be vigilant about the secondary impact on the market caused by large institutions liquidating their positions.
At this stage, it is still difficult to determine whether the market will continue to maintain a bull market. Overall, since the price of Bitcoin has not fallen below 100,000, the technical support for Bitcoin is roughly around 80,000 to 90,000. Therefore, even if it falls below 100,000, a bull market can still be expected, but this 100,000 support is quite important. If we treat it as a continuing bull market, we can perform some bottom-fishing grids between the low point of 1011 and the current price. In fact, the recent grid earnings have been quite good, which can cover the losses from the decline. If the market rebounds after a second bottom test, it can be profitable, which is suitable for friends who have reduced their positions or have relatively low holdings.
However, overall, I think there is no need to expect the market to rise too much in the short to medium term. In other words, I do not recommend directly increasing positions significantly within the next month; instead, one can consider using grid trading or dollar-cost averaging to enter the market. Objectively speaking, I am slightly pessimistic about the current market conditions, and since the bull market has actually been running for quite a while, it is reasonable to have a decent pullback from this sharp drop. Of course, my ETH holdings have not decreased, as I believe the current macro environment is still decent, the interest rate cut cycle has not reached its end, and the recent surge in gold can somewhat reflect the current abundance of dollars in the market. Given the overall relatively loose policies, there is a significant probability of continued activity in the crypto space. Therefore, my thought is to treat Ethereum as a means to combat fiat currency inflation.
There is no need to overly pursue short-term market trends. I still believe that the probability of a sideways market is the highest, and the response to a sideways market is through swing trades or grid trading. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the performance of newly listed coins has been noticeably poor compared to a while ago, which is the most direct reflection of market sentiment. Therefore, it is better to avoid touching new coins. In summary, it is time to stabilize for a while. Of course, the market is always changing, so let's observe the performance of the sideways market for now, and we will make new judgments on the subsequent market. Meanwhile, everyone can take this time to rest more.