This short position wasn’t opened after seeing the drop first; it was because, when price surged up and then rolled over, I already felt the resistance above didn’t look right. The price kept grinding around 0.4506. I tried to push it up a few times, but it never truly held. At the time, I was actually a bit hesitant too—because the highest-risk part of shorting at high levels is suddenly getting a wick upward. What really made me confident enough to keep holding, was that later pullback that kept getting weaker and weaker. The buy-side never followed through, but sell pressure came out layer by layer. The market moved from 0.4506 to 0.2946, and the short-side tempo finally played out. The paper result landed at +850.04%, and this decline was still relatively well captured. The most uncomfortable part in the middle was that fake breakout—many people probably got shaken out. I also almost got itchy and exited early. If you’ve been in the crypto space long enough, you know: it’s not hard to judge direction, but what’s hard is not letting your own emotions carry you away during the grinding phase. After reviewing this trade, I’m even more convinced by the short-side logic. Not because it dropped and then I decided it was bearish, but because the problems were always there beforehand. As long as the rhythm doesn’t get disrupted, once the support truly loosens, the market will naturally give you the answer. $BTC $ETH

7.25 Afternoon BTC/ETH Market Analysis by Shiyuan Opinion BTC The 4-hour chart surged to a high at 66,924, then topped and continued to consolidate while trending downward, now at 63,958. The highs are gradually lowering; bullish momentum keeps weakening, pullbacks are weak, and the bearish side dominates the board. In the short term, it remains a weak pattern. Resistance: 64,600, 65,200 Support: 63,400, 62,900 Suggestions: 1. Place short orders in the 64,500-64,600 rebound zone, stop-loss at 65,300; first target 63,400. If it breaks down, look to 62,900; 2. Wait for a retracement in the 62,900-64,000 range to show stabilization signals before considering a short-term long; stop-loss at 62,500, target around 64,500. ETH BTC movement is moving in tandem; rising to 1,958 met resistance and pulled back, now at 1,856. It continues to range-bound at low levels; rebounds lack buy-side support, and downside risk still exists. Resistance: 1,888, 1,920 Support: 1,830, 1,800 Suggestions: 1. Place short orders on a rebound at 1,885-1,888, stop-loss at 1,922; first target 1,830. If it breaks, look toward 1,800; 2. If 1,800-1,830 holds and stabilizes on the pullback, you may try a small-cap long; stop-loss at 1,775, target around 1,880. Overall approach The trend is weak—prioritize selling the highs on rebounds. Don’t rush to bottom-fish for a reversal; wait for a clear stop-decline pattern. The market is volatile; every order must strictly set a stop-loss and control position size. $BTC $ETH

This trade didn’t start by taking profit right away. The price stayed stuck in a high-range, moving sideways, repeatedly lifting and then falling back, as if it were deliberately testing people’s patience. I didn’t treat short-term fluctuations as a trend change—I only recorded 0.16207 and 0.14276, and kept observing whether there was real buy support above. In the middle, there was a quick rebound that almost swept the short out. Honestly, in that moment I was still panicked. But after the rebound, the price didn’t keep rising—instead, it dropped back again into the original area. That suggests the rally was more like a bull trap; people who chased the position started exiting one after another, and sell pressure gradually began to show. Later on, the decline became smoother and smoother. The key levels that had been accumulated at the high point finally got released, resulting in +846.72%. The most important thing to revisit this time isn’t the number itself—it’s that before the market gave any answer, I didn’t overturn my original judgment just because of a single bullish K-line. In a bearish market, patience isn’t about stubbornly holding on. It’s knowing what you’re waiting for. A rebound without real support is often just the final round of shaking; only when the real sell-off hits do those seemingly boring waits start to matter. $BTC $ETH