Bitcoin Power Law suggests November peak over $200,000 and never revisiting $70k

2025-02-12 09:44:40

Bitcoin’s past cycles peaked in November or December, with peaks on Nov. 10, 2021, at $69,000; Dec. 17, 2017, at $19,891; and Nov. 29, 2013, at $1,242, according to analyst @apsk32, an engineer focused-on Bitcoin data visualization.

The data indicates that if historical trends persist, the four-year cycle pattern may signal a peak in November or December 2025.

For nearly 15 years, Bitcoin’s price has followed a power curve that some observers interpret as a support line representing the network’s intrinsic value when market sentiment subsides. The analysis uses a “years ahead” metric to gauge the period required for current prices to reach the support threshold before potential upward pressure resumes.

![](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=%22)Bitcoin Power Law Cycle (Source: apsk32)Bitcoin has previously risen above this trendline before returning to it during market downturns, as observed during the spring 2021 bull market, which concluded with a double top that realigned the cycle to a four-year timeframe.

Recent price action has followed a similar trajectory, although early ETF inflows have led to caution among market participants. A large segment of investors continues to hold coins in cold storage, citing the security benefits regardless of the cycle patterns.

![](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=%22)Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Mean (Source: apsk32)The 4-year mean shows a peak of just over $200,000 around the end of 2025, with Bitcoin not falling below $70,000 ever again.

BTC1.5%

POWER-6.79%

OVER-1.72%

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